MILLER: It Just Doesn't Matter After Tonight

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
“And even if we win, if we win, HAH! Even if we win! Even if we play so far above our heads that our noses bleed for a week to ten days; even if God in Heaven above comes down and points his hand at our side of the field; even if every man woman and child held hands together and prayed for us to win, it just wouldn’t matter because all the really good looking girls would still go out with the guys from Mohawk because they’ve got all the money!” Tripper, Meatballs

This is a line from one of my favorite cult classic movies, ‘Meatballs‘. Bill Murray’s character said this near the end of the movie to rally his summer camp squad to rally against the opposing summer camp from across the lake. Murray was the head counsellor at Camp North Star, where the misfits and outcasts went to summer camp. Camp Mohawk from across the way, they were the elites, the upper crust kids.

In the end, Camp North Star won.

Iowa fans from around the nation have ‘risen up’ in recent weeks against an onslaught of of ‘national attention’ that has been less than flattering at times, insulting at others and often simply ignorant.

SEC-loving ESPN has seemingly driven this national narrative against the Hawkeyes from program to program and pundit to pundit. The message has been the same; Iowa doesn’t deserve to be in the College Football Playoff discussion. They haven’t beaten anyone and their schedule is ’embarrassing’, to quote Kirk Herbstreit (to his credit, Herbstreit did read and commenton my ‘Dear America, Iowa Doesn’t Care What You Think’ piece).

On Tuesday night November 3rd, the first college football playoff poll of the year will be released. I think Iowa will be ranked 7th or 8th in that poll, but no worse than 10th. From the minute it’s released, it will be the only poll that will matter the rest of the year.

From the moment it’s released, the opinions of the punditry and the narrative driving hounds at ESPN will no longer matter. At that point, Iowa’s motto can be a simple one; it just doesn’t matter.

If Iowa wins, it just doesn’t matter what anyone else says. If Iowa keeps winning, they will keep climbing. If Iowa keeps winning, they will be in the college football playoff.
A 13-0 Iowa? They’re in. Even Kirk Herbstreit agrees, saying as much to a friend on twitter when asked if Iowa would be in the playoff if it went 13-0.

If Notre Dame and Stanford are both ranked ahead of Iowa on Tuesday night? They play one another yet this year. If Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State (or a variation thereof) are ranked ahead of Iowa on Tuesday night? They all play one another as well as Oklahoma. How about LSU and Alabama? They still play one another. Michigan State and Ohio State? They play one another.
For Iowa, it just doesn’t matter as long as they keep winning.

Consider this; last year’s National Champion, the Ohio State Buckeyes, were ranked #16th in the first College Football Playoff Poll (image below). How do you like that big ole heapin’ helping of the SEC Myth right out the gates last year? Three SEC teams were in the initial Top Four. I recall a few ESPN talking heads who had four SEC teams in their Top Four. A few weeks later, none of those three teams (Mississippi State, Ole Miss or Auburn) was in the hunt. The Buckeyes started way down there at 16. Oregon, Alabama and Florida State were the other three teams who made the Final Four, with the Buckeyes getting in by the skin of their teeth. You might recall TCU being right in that mix until the season ended, when they were ‘down-voted’ out of the Top Four after laying waste to Iowa State.

The Buckeyes got in and that was a controversial selection. The Buckeyes won it all.

You don’t have to be popular, you just have to have a chip and a chair. For Iowa, just keep winning and it just doesn’t matter.

I recall another Ohio State team from days gone by, one the national punditry mocked and labelled ‘The Luckeyes’. It was the 2002 Ohio State team, the one who never met Iowa on the field as both teams went 8-0 in Big Ten play but Ohio State won all of their games. They also made it to the BCS national title game and won it all. Do you remember how many close calls they had against so-so teams?

In breaking down the 2002 Ohio State season even farther, Cincinnati finished 7-7 and Bearcat receivers dropped two would be touchdowns in the final minute as Ohio State survived an early upset bid. Their close win against Wisconsin was against a Badgers team that finished 8-6 and who led Ohio State 14-13 in the fourth quarter. They beat a legit Penn State team by six, with their lone touchdown coming on a pick six; their offense did not score a touchdown that game. Their four-point win at Purdue came on the ‘Holy Buckeye’, a 37-yard touchdown pass on 4th and 1 with less than two minutes to play, which was pretty fortuitous.

They beat a 5-7 Illinois team in overtime and knocked off a solid Michigan team with a touchdown in the final six minutes and held off two Michigan drives late in the game, including one just short of the Ohio State goal line.
That 2002 Ohio State team had an above average running game (31st nationally) but a below average offense (70th nationally in total offense) with a quarterback who could not move all that well and one of the best defenses in the nation (3rd in rushing defense and 2nd in scoring defense), they forced teams into mistakes (18th in turnover margin at +.93/game) and they had great special teams (13th in punting and the second best placekicker in the game behind Iowa’s Nate Kaeding)
Some may call them fortunate, or ‘The Luckeyes’, but they call them something else in Columbus, all these years later and forevermore; National Champions.

Back to Iowa’s here and now…nobody is calling them lucky, they are just taking pot shots at their schedule, even though through this past week’s action (which accounts for two-thirds of the entire season) Iowa has faced a better strength of schedule than any of the other unbeatens save Clemson and LSU.

Iowa is doing it with an above average running game (33rd nationally) but a below average offense (65th nationally in total offense) with a quarterback who can’t move all that well right now and one of the best defenses in the nation (5th in rushing defense and 6th in scoring defense), they are forcing teams into mistakes (tied for 6th in the nation at +1.25/game) and they are getting some great contributions from special teams (Dillon Kidd is 30th in the nation but punting much better than pure numbers can account for).

Having said all of this, if you ask me ‘Do you think Iowa will go undefeated, win the Big Ten title and be 13-0?’, I would say ‘no, I don’t.’ Like the 2002 Ohio State team, Iowa has some holes but that 2002 OSU team was far more talented than this year’s Iowa team is. It could afford some attrition and I don’t believe this Iowa team can keep avoiding such potholes.

Perhaps this coming weekend at Indiana is going to be that game. Whenever I’ve doubted Iowa this year they have proven me wrong, and I have not minded it one bit. If Iowa does misstep, be prepared for an onslaught of Iowa Haterade. If that happens, it doesn’t render this and other arguments supporting Iowa’s case to date as moot, either. ‘Case to Date’ is the key, something so many talking heads seem to forget. I have been speaking out because I feel the narrative that is being painted is unfairly dismissing what Iowa has done to get to this point. For me, it’s not been about a belief that Iowa will actually finish the year undefeated, it’s about not sitting by idly while a network who is in bed with the SEC keeps trumpeting an unbalanced narrative on Iowa’s season. If you don’t speak up and show the other side, then Low IQ America just assumes what they are being spoon fed by ESPN has to be the truth.

That said, what if the Hawkeyes do keep winning? If Iowa keeps churning out some meat grinder style wins the rest of this year and gets to 13-0, we don’t have to make apologies for them. Ask an Ohio State fan if they have to make any apologies for their 2002 National Title. Ask an Ohio State fan if they have to make apologies for gaining access to last year’s Playoff amidst controversy.

It just doesn’t matter how you get there, as long as you get there. If Iowa doesn’t score ‘style points’ along the way yet still gets to 13-0 (which would include a win over #1 Ohio State or a Top Five Michigan State in the Big Ten title game), none of this schedule talk will matter.

It just doesn’t matter; but I don’t begrudge you for disliking the forced national narrative.
 
I can say with all honesty, if the Hawks go 13-0 and make the CFP, that will not be a roll of Clorets in my pocket.
 
Rusillo & Kanell have been arguing about Iowa lately. Rusillo seems to just not want to like us and Kanell is actually on our side. He even said on air yesterday that he is in the process of getting a Hawkeye helmet to put in front of him on his desk.
 
A quote from Jon's piece: ". . . the low IQ America . . . " Their favorite phrase------------->T L D R Anyway, Jon, fine piece. I can't wait for someone to bump my "not looking like a playoff team" thread. Because if they do that probably means we are in the playoffs. If we avoid a loss, we are in. If we get in we probably win it all. Then we get a chance to play an NFL all-star team for charity. After winning that game the NCAA creates a new division above FBS called BoysToMenSeries in which Iowa and 11 other elite programs compete year in and year out. If this were to happen Iowa State would shut down their football program and volunteer to be our waterboys in perpetuity. Having said all that, I still don't think the HC position should be passed from father to son in 2021. (yes I know that rhymes, some of us got skillz)
 
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I just can't get over how much fun this is, bad pub or good. Being relevant in the college football landscape is fun as heck, and to be honest, it's thrilling being the underdog that could crash the pundits party. Screw them and I hope Iowa can throw a wrench into every pundit's perfect playoff scenerio. Can you imagine what it could be like if Iowa pulled off the BIG c-ship. The next day would be a fire storm around the media. It's kind of fun playing the Villain role, and this may be the best role for this Iowa team this year. No respect so prove yourself. Luv it!!!!
 
It just doesn't matter if we beat an undefeated defending national champions Ohio State Buckeyes team. But what if we don't even play them? Then it does start mattering I think.

Clemson
TCU/Bay/Okyst
LSU/Bama
Stan/ND

Now each group of teams will probably be ranked ahead of us, and one from each group could win out. Now if we beat an undefeated Ohio state, we jump the Stan/ND winner hands down no questions asked, but what if we don't play an undefeated Ohio state? I think if we play an undefeated Michigan state I still say we jump stan/ND, but what if

OSU beats MSU loses to Michigan and we beat a one loss OSU team that just lost the week before IDK?

MSU loses PSU, but beats OHio state? They'd go to btc is that enought vs one loss MSU that lost week before to PSU? IDK?

What if msu loses to osu and another game. Then Michigan beats Ohio state and we beat a 2 loss Michigan is that enough? IDK?

Everyone's assuming its going to be an undefeated Ohio state, then it just doesn't matter, but we can't control that and if it's not, then it MAY MATTER!
 
It just doesn't matter if we beat an undefeated defending national champions Ohio State Buckeyes team. But what if we don't even play them? Then it does start mattering I think.

Clemson
TCU/Bay/Okyst
LSU/Bama
Stan/ND

Now each group of teams will probably be ranked ahead of us, and one from each group could win out. Now if we beat an undefeated Ohio state, we jump the Stan/ND winner hands down no questions asked, but what if we don't play an undefeated Ohio state? I think if we play an undefeated Michigan state I still say we jump stan/ND, but what if

OSU beats MSU loses to Michigan and we beat a one loss OSU team that just lost the week before IDK?

MSU loses PSU, but beats OHio state? They'd go to btc is that enought vs one loss MSU that lost week before to PSU? IDK?

What if msu loses to osu and another game. Then Michigan beats Ohio state and we beat a 2 loss Michigan is that enough? IDK?

Everyone's assuming its going to be an undefeated Ohio state, then it just doesn't matter, but we can't control that and if it's not, then it MAY MATTER!

The committee would never leave a 13-0 Big Ten team out of the playoffs. It would never happen. Fair or not the Big Ten has more power, money and fans than any other conference. The committee leaving off the undefeated Big Ten champs would immediately dissolve the 4 team playoff format...forever. The Big Ten simply would not stand for it.
 
The committee would never leave a 13-0 Big Ten team out of the playoffs. It would never happen. Fair or not the Big Ten has more power, money and fans than any other conference. The committee leaving off the undefeated Big Ten champs would immediately dissolve the 4 team playoff format...forever. The Big Ten simply would not stand for it.

You sure about that? Bama and ND 4/5, it's clearly not a guarantee that if we go undefeated we're in, unless we beat an undefeated Ohio State.
 
It would be difficult to be undefeated without beating Ohio State

Read my above post, it could happen, I'm just worried that if Ohio state gets upset and we get an easier big ten championship we could get screwed. I was rooting for Ohio state to lose, but maybe I may start rooting for them to go undefeated.
 
You sure about that? Bama and ND 4/5, it's clearly not a guarantee that if we go undefeated we're in, unless we beat an undefeated Ohio State.

13-0 with a win over a top 10 OSU, even with a loss, our SOS and resume would look better than any other team in the top 5, period.
 
There's, like 5% of me that wants to go undefeated but get left out just to see what would happen.
 
There's, like 5% of me that wants to go undefeated but get left out just to see what would happen.

Just think... We'd be able to say we were robbed FOR THE REST OF OUR LIVES! The only thing better would be winning it all!

Of course if that happened, we'd better win our bowl game.
 
I just don't see Iowa beating Ohio State.

I mean crap guys, we get all nervous when Iowa has to play an average to above average team like Wisconsin or Indiana or that MInn team that we saw on Halloween.
 

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