Miller: Iowa Hoops, Exciting Future

I'm excited. I can't wait for basketball again! It's going to be fun watching these incoming kids mesh with our returning players.
 
I am very excited about Iowa's BB future. The style of play is fun, and the talent on the team next year will be exponentially better than under Lick. It is actually amazing to see what Fran has done to the roster in only 3 recruiting classes.
 
I agree with your prognosis on Woodbury. 5 and 3 seems about right. I would be thrilled with that kind of contribution from a freshman post player.
The players I'm most interested to see will be Pat Ingram and Kyle Meyer. What can they bring to the team?
Can AW avoid the sophomore slump?
Exciting times for Iowa hoops!!
 
Solid, analysis Jon.

I'll add: Gessell also stands a better chance to develop as a point guard (when comparing the Horner/Alford era) as Fran has a more proven track record for developing PG's
 
John,

thanks for the detailed analysis; like you, I am very excited about Iowa basketball not only for the future, but also the way they performed this year.
 
I'm excited, love Fran, etc... However, we will not win consistently if we can't get stops. Crean's big thing at Marquette and now Indiana (heard him at a coaching clinic) was to get 3 consecutive stops. It allows you to go on a run, catch up, etc... I'm still sick that we gave up gobs of free baskets to the Ducks. I'd like to see Fran bring in someone to stop that. A physical presence either as a wing or post. Gatens was arguably our best defender and we will lose him. I for one hate bad defensive basketball.
 
bpiercehawks said:
I'm excited, love Fran, etc... However, we will not win consistently if we can't get stops. Crean's big thing at Marquette and now Indiana (heard him at a coaching clinic) was to get 3 consecutive stops. It allows you to go on a run, catch up, etc... I'm still sick that we gave up gobs of free baskets to the Ducks. I'd like to see Fran bring in someone to stop that. A physical presence either as a wing or post. Gatens was arguably our best defender and we will lose him. I for one hate bad defensive basketball.
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Yeah thats the one part we still suck at...Fran has not improved the defense very much at all.
 
I disagree with one thing you wrote, Jon. I am "predicting it". The Hawks will dance next year. Mark it down.

Take away the "bad losses" and they were nearly there this year. They'll win more in and out of conference.
 
hawkdrummer1 said:
I disagree with one thing you wrote, Jon. I am "predicting it". The Hawks will dance next year. Mark it down.

Take away the "bad losses" and they were nearly there this year. They'll win more in and out of conference.
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While its true that if we didn't have the bad losses, we'd have been dancing, it doesn't work that way. And while the freshman class has me very excited for the future, I'm not sure they're going to cover for the loss of Gatens, without whom we wouldn't have even been in the NIT.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm just a little leery of putting so much on freshmen that aren't of the one and done variety.
 
Jon: I thought that the Wells Fargo doubleheader was going to result in Iowa playing either Drake or UNI, and not both of them? So, is this going to be a two day event with Iowa playing Drake on Friday and UNI on Saturday...with ISU playing the other game with Drake/UNI?...ie. 4 games total over two nites? Not what I thought was happening. I think it should be UNI/Drake every other year at Fargo.

The analysis is pretty spot on. Rule of thumb- frosh big men who are not top ten take time. But frosh wings and guards can play immediately.
 
Great article, but you wrote, "Next year's team looks to be weak beyond the arc".

Really?

Last year from 3 pt. range, McCabe shot 45%, Marble shot 39.3%, Oglesby shot 37% and White shot 27%.

All these guys come back, and there is no reason to think that these four can't collectively average 40% from 3 next year.
 
sdschroe said:
Great article, but you wrote, "Next year's team looks to be weak beyond the arc".

Really?

Last year from 3 pt. range, McCabe shot 45%, Marble shot 39.3%, Oglesby shot 37% and White shot 27%.

All these guys come back, and there is no reason to think that these four can't collectively average 40% from 3 next year.
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Three point percentage is not the only way to judge a team from behind the arc. Granted it's important but so is the ability to get the shot. McCabe takes open threes, very efficient, but a good defense is likely to keep him from even getting an attempt. He only shot 49 all year so low impact. Actually May had a high percentage at just under 40% last year. But it was on about 2 attempts per game so the impact wasn't there. Strength from behind the arc requires a good percentage plus some volume. What made Gatens stand out was the ability to hit some threes against defenses geared toward stopping him. Despite the scouting report he got off 183 3s this year and still shot 41%. That is a major impact. None of the guys listed have shown that ability yet unless you count Marble's last game. If a few get to that point even if it involves a slightly lower overall percentage, it will help open the floor for the big guys and for driving lanes. This is why losing Gatens is a huge deal, and others must improve to cover that loss.
 
2020hawk said:
Three point percentage is not the only way to judge a team from behind the arc. Granted it's important but so is the ability to get the shot. McCabe takes open threes, very efficient, but a good defense is likely to keep him from even getting an attempt. He only shot 49 all year so low impact. Actually May had a high percentage at just under 40% last year. But it was on about 2 attempts per game so the impact wasn't there. Strength from behind the arc requires a good percentage plus some volume. What made Gatens stand out was the ability to hit some threes against defenses geared toward stopping him. Despite the scouting report he got off 183 3s this year and still shot 41%. That is a major impact. None of the guys listed have shown that ability yet unless you count Marble's last game. If a few get to that point even if it involves a slightly lower overall percentage, it will help open the floor for the big guys and for driving lanes. This is why losing Gatens is a huge deal, and others must improve to cover that loss.
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Oglesby I think will be that player eventually. He's got a quick release, he just needs to trust in it more. Marble also hit a shot or two on Sunday where he created his own space. That behind the back step back was a thing of beauty.
 
tm3308 said:
Oglesby I think will be that player eventually. He's got a quick release, he just needs to trust in it more. Marble also hit a shot or two on Sunday where he created his own space. That behind the back step back was a thing of beauty.
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Agree totally, I'm hoping it will be Oglesby too. I'm not betting against Gesell either but who knows with new guys? Marble is the closest right now to being hard to stop, so he will see the opponent's best perimeter defender a lot next year, and another guy has to threaten the defense from deep. This is a deal where improvement from Oglesby will improve 3-4 other guy's numbers too, just by attracting defenders.

As an aside, I though Oglesby worked pretty hard on defense, moves laterally really well, and may be ahead of Gatens' at a similar stage of his career defensively. What do others say?
 
2020hawk said:
Three point percentage is not the only way to judge a team from behind the arc. Granted it's important but so is the ability to get the shot. McCabe takes open threes, very efficient, but a good defense is likely to keep him from even getting an attempt. He only shot 49 all year so low impact. Actually May had a high percentage at just under 40% last year. But it was on about 2 attempts per game so the impact wasn't there. Strength from behind the arc requires a good percentage plus some volume. What made Gatens stand out was the ability to hit some threes against defenses geared toward stopping him. Despite the scouting report he got off 183 3s this year and still shot 41%. That is a major impact. None of the guys listed have shown that ability yet unless you count Marble's last game. If a few get to that point even if it involves a slightly lower overall percentage, it will help open the floor for the big guys and for driving lanes. This is why losing Gatens is a huge deal, and others must improve to cover that loss.
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That is a solid post, and the point is well taken.

I didn't mean to minimize the complexity of basketball. My point is that Marble, Oglesby and McCabe can all shoot the 3. White's percentage was low but I believe he will improve from long range. May can shoot the 3. Gessell should be able to as well.

I don't think it is accurrate to say Iowa won't be an effective 3 point shooting team next year, but time will tell.
 
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