Miller: Iowa Hoops, Exciting Future

[JonDMiller]

Agree, 2020...this team is going to be challenged from beyond the arc next year

 

[RocknRollface]

I'm excited, love Fran, etc... However, we will not win consistently if we can't get stops. Crean's big thing at Marquette and now Indiana (heard him at a coaching clinic) was to get 3 consecutive stops. It allows you to go on a run, catch up, etc... I'm still sick that we gave up gobs of free baskets to the Ducks. I'd like to see Fran bring in someone to stop that. A physical presence either as a wing or post. Gatens was arguably our best defender and we will lose him. I for one hate bad defensive basketball.

I hate it as well.

One player can't do much though. Iowa needs all of the perimeter players to be able to stay in front of their man.

 

[RocknRollface]

While its true that if we didn't have the bad losses, we'd have been dancing, it doesn't work that way. And while the freshman class has me very excited for the future, I'm not sure they're going to cover for the loss of Gatens, without whom we wouldn't have even been in the NIT.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm just a little leery of putting so much on freshmen that aren't of the one and done variety.

One player doesn't have to replace him, we have White, Marble, Basabe, McCabe and Ogelsby that will all improve and 5 possibly six new guys to replace Gatens and Cartwright, all of whom fill roles that the team was lacking this year, pg(most of the year), center and perimeter defenders.

Then anything from Olesani and May is an unexpected bonus.

Yes Gatens shot us to some wins this year, but we were only in that position because of our overall lack of big ten caliber athletes and size, that won't be the case next year.

Its almost impossible for me to imagine a scenario where this team isn't better next year than one game over 500.

 

[RocknRollface]

Three point percentage is not the only way to judge a team from behind the arc. Granted it's important but so is the ability to get the shot. McCabe takes open threes, very efficient, but a good defense is likely to keep him from even getting an attempt. He only shot 49 all year so low impact. Actually May had a high percentage at just under 40% last year. But it was on about 2 attempts per game so the impact wasn't there. Strength from behind the arc requires a good percentage plus some volume. What made Gatens stand out was the ability to hit some threes against defenses geared toward stopping him. Despite the scouting report he got off 183 3s this year and still shot 41%. That is a major impact. None of the guys listed have shown that ability yet unless you count Marble's last game. If a few get to that point even if it involves a slightly lower overall percentage, it will help open the floor for the big guys and for driving lanes. This is why losing Gatens is a huge deal, and others must improve to cover that loss.

Both McCabe and White could get allot of open 3s if they were looking to because they are both usually guarded by post players who don't wan't to come out that far.

White is usualy open outside the three point line a ton, he is just not that great of a shooter so he doesn't launch them that often. If he can improve that aspect of his game he can be deadly.

 

[tm3308]

One player doesn't have to replace him, we have White, Marble, Basabe, McCabe and Ogelsby that will all improve and 5 possibly six new guys to replace Gatens and Cartwright, all of whom fill roles that the team was lacking this year, pg(most of the year), center and perimeter defenders.

Then anything from Olesani and May is an unexpected bonus.

Yes Gatens shot us to some wins this year, but we were only in that position because of our overall lack of big ten caliber athletes and size, that won't be the case next year.

Its almost impossible for me to imagine a scenario where this team isn't better next year than one game over 500.

We had all of those guys this year, too. I'm sure they'll improve as a group, but I'm not sold that it will more than make up for Gatens' absence.

You argue that McCabe will get more looks because more is expected of him and he's defended by post players who won't want to come out to defend him. But once he starts getting fed more often, coaches will adjust to take him away, or at least minimize his impact. He also won't be playing the 5, at least not nearly as much. Quite a few of the league's 4's will come out, but the Sullingers/Zellers/Leonards of the conference won't.

Marble is already going to draw the opponent's best perimeter defender.

White will have to improve drastically to become a serious outside threat. 27% is not good, and jacking up way more threes is not the answer to that problem.

A very great deal hinges on Oglesby. If he can find faith in his shot, then things should be fine. If he plays slightly tentative (as far as shooting goes, anyway), then we won't be. He is the guy who can take the pressure off all the others, and give them more open looks. And while I've got great confidence in his shooting ability, I've seen little to inspire confidence in HIS confidence.

 

[EddyP]

Agree, 2020...this team is going to be challenged from beyond the arc next year

We will if we get the same production from Oglesby and Marble next year as we did this year from 3 but I can also see both of those 2 guys making great strides next year. We know they can both hit them and they've both showed flashes this year in games. You throw in Gesell who is a good 3 point shooter and these 3 could pick up the slack for Gatens being gone. I don't see White and McCabe taking too many but they can both hit them when open. As some have suggested I'm more concerned about the defense. Look at the last 2 games, Gatens was relatively quite and we still lit up the scoreboard. They've played good D at times this year just way too inconsistent.

 

[azhawkphan]

The reason I think the three point shooting could improve next year is that we will have guards that can drive into the lane and kick it back out for the three point shot. I have not seen Gesell or Clemmons play much, but looks like one or both can do this. We did not rely on the 3 point shot for most of the year until Gatens caught fire the last 6 or so games. Even then we relied on Gatens/Ogelsby/Marble to run the baseline and rub off screens to get a shot. We also relied on the secondary break to get three point shots. I think if we get a point guard that can drive and kick to an open man to catch and shoot in the rhythm of the offense that should help out tremendously.

I think our defense can improve dramatically next year with the addition of the incoming freshmen. The perimeter defenders had to sag in deep or are who Fran used to double the post. We had trouble rotating over or recovering when the ball got kicked out and resulted in too many uncontested shots. We also got killed when we tried to full court or 3/4 court press. We also got killed in most games with offensive rebounds which resulted in easy putbacks, more possessions, and a worn down defense. Not that the incoming freshmen are going to magically fix all these issues, but what they will do is add capable depth (hopefully) so we don't have the mental and physical breakdowns on defense nearly as often. Hopefully the added size and an improved Gabe will be able to defend the post with not as much help and/or keep the other team off the offensive glass.

My $.02, but probably worth about that much as well .