JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
TWO TO THE BCS: I firmly expect the Big Ten to get two teams to the BCS for the 11th year out of 14. Michigan's 10-2 record, energized fanbase and national television draw will be too much for a BCS bowl to pass up. They'll go along with the winner of the Big Ten championship game, which I believe will be Wisconsin.
Four weeks ago, the banter on twitter and elsewhere was that there was little chance of the Big Ten getting into a 'Two Up' to the BCS scenario this year. But the Wolverines didn't lose again after falling in Kinnick Stadium and they'll reap the benefits.
The last real question that exists when trying to slot the first six BCS bowl spots is whether or not the NCAA will tell Ohio State it has to stay home from a bowl game this year. That ruling will have to come early this week, if at all. I'll wager it won't happen for the sake of these projections.
ROSE BOWL: Wisconsin
BCS AT LARGE: Michigan
CAP ONE: Nebraska
OUTBACK: Michigan State
INSIGHT: Penn State
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Things are fairly cut and dried above this line.
GATOR: Ohio State enters bowl considerations having lost three straight to end a season that saw them go 6-6, their worst record since 1999. Iowa finished this season 7-5 and went 2-2 down the stretch. I don't sense a great deal of 'bowl fever' in either fan base. For the sake of these projections, lets say Iowa and Ohio State would send the same number of fans to the Gator Bowl. Then it comes down to the television component and Ohio State is going to draw more eyeballs than will Iowa. So we'll go with the Buckeyes in this slot, but it's a 55/45 sort of feel.
TEXAS: Iowa and the likely opponent would be Texas A&M. I believe the Cotton, Holiday and Insight will all take a pass on Texas A&M (with some encouraging from the Big 12 offices) but it's hard to see a Texas bowl game beyond the Cotton & Alamo passing on the Aggies, regardless of their future conference plans.
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This is the point where it gets muddy again. Illinois, Northwestern and Purdue are all 6-6 with two Big Ten tie ins remaining. Illinois started the year 6-0 and ended the year 0-6. How excited will their fans be to travel to a bowl game? Northwestern doesn't have a large alumni base but has traveled well to an Alamo Bowl in the past when they faced Missouri, but that team was 9-3 heading into the bowl game. Purdue MIGHT have had 35,000 fans in Ross-Ade on senior day against Iowa and that was a week after they beat Ohio State at home. They won two of their last three games.
None of these teams is a great TV draw at this bowl position, with Illinois being the best of the three. If I am on the bowl committee looking at all of this, I try to stage the best game I can. Northwestern would be my pick for that and it's not even a close call. I'll go with that pick, but that's not always how it works out.
TICKET CITY: Northwestern
LITTLE CAESAR'S: Illinois, likely with an interim coach on the sidelines.
AT LARGE POOL: PURDUE
Four weeks ago, the banter on twitter and elsewhere was that there was little chance of the Big Ten getting into a 'Two Up' to the BCS scenario this year. But the Wolverines didn't lose again after falling in Kinnick Stadium and they'll reap the benefits.
The last real question that exists when trying to slot the first six BCS bowl spots is whether or not the NCAA will tell Ohio State it has to stay home from a bowl game this year. That ruling will have to come early this week, if at all. I'll wager it won't happen for the sake of these projections.
ROSE BOWL: Wisconsin
BCS AT LARGE: Michigan
CAP ONE: Nebraska
OUTBACK: Michigan State
INSIGHT: Penn State
----------------------------
Things are fairly cut and dried above this line.
GATOR: Ohio State enters bowl considerations having lost three straight to end a season that saw them go 6-6, their worst record since 1999. Iowa finished this season 7-5 and went 2-2 down the stretch. I don't sense a great deal of 'bowl fever' in either fan base. For the sake of these projections, lets say Iowa and Ohio State would send the same number of fans to the Gator Bowl. Then it comes down to the television component and Ohio State is going to draw more eyeballs than will Iowa. So we'll go with the Buckeyes in this slot, but it's a 55/45 sort of feel.
TEXAS: Iowa and the likely opponent would be Texas A&M. I believe the Cotton, Holiday and Insight will all take a pass on Texas A&M (with some encouraging from the Big 12 offices) but it's hard to see a Texas bowl game beyond the Cotton & Alamo passing on the Aggies, regardless of their future conference plans.
--------------------
This is the point where it gets muddy again. Illinois, Northwestern and Purdue are all 6-6 with two Big Ten tie ins remaining. Illinois started the year 6-0 and ended the year 0-6. How excited will their fans be to travel to a bowl game? Northwestern doesn't have a large alumni base but has traveled well to an Alamo Bowl in the past when they faced Missouri, but that team was 9-3 heading into the bowl game. Purdue MIGHT have had 35,000 fans in Ross-Ade on senior day against Iowa and that was a week after they beat Ohio State at home. They won two of their last three games.
None of these teams is a great TV draw at this bowl position, with Illinois being the best of the three. If I am on the bowl committee looking at all of this, I try to stage the best game I can. Northwestern would be my pick for that and it's not even a close call. I'll go with that pick, but that's not always how it works out.
TICKET CITY: Northwestern
LITTLE CAESAR'S: Illinois, likely with an interim coach on the sidelines.
AT LARGE POOL: PURDUE
