Miller: Big Ten Divisional Alignment Prediction

Jon, I believe you have it right on the nose. Here is an objective analysis. A website I found has tracked the won-loss records and percentage for each D1 team since 1945 or the last 69 years. The average winning percentage of your A division is .568 and for the B division is .556 rounded to the hundreds or a difference of .012. OSU and Michigan are numbers 1 and 3 respectively in highest per cent win total. PSU and Nebraska are 2 and 4 respectively. Each division has four teams with overall winning records during that 65 year span: Michigan State(.574) Purdue(.510) in division A versus Wisconsin(.526) Iowa(.514) in division B. Among teams with losing records Minnesota comes the closest to a winning record at .474 followed by Illinois at .453. Indiana and Northwestern are at .381 and .367 respectively.

For football this arrangement is hard to argue with. I do not know how the Penn State fans would like it because of geography and you alluded to that. But if it is any consolation they would only have to make two or three trips west yearly until further expansion occurs and that could be eliminated. They would still play at least three other games in the eastern time zone.

Really? You are going to determine the divisions are equal based on records since 1945?
 
I understand that Division A has produced the majority of the Big ten titles over the last 30 years...and if Michigan and Ohio State didn't want it the way I laid it out, I would have started out with them in different divisions. But they want it the way I laid it out.
 
Really? You are going to determine the divisions are equal based on records since 1945?

I didn't, but unconsciously Jon arranged the divisions, by pure coincidence, matched the numbers since 45. What do you propose as an objective measure for determining competitive balance? I'd be interested in knowing.
 
I think Iowa-Nebraska should end the season now. Make that game around Thanksgiving Holiday time so the Hawks can play longer. To me, they need to do that anyway.

And your six-team divisions are flawed in my eyes.

Why would you break up Illinois and Northwestern.

Why not this

East
Penn State
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue

West
Iowa
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinois

The travel is better for both parties this way. I realize that the divisions could play opposite ends and travel will come into play anyway, but the guaranteed travel games are closer than they would be in Penn State was in the West every year.

GO HAWKS
 
the A division is really top heavy while the B group with the Hawks is much deeper. If it shook out like this, that B group would be a tough conference schedule. On the other hand, OSU and Michigan would coast to their annual meeting.
 
I don't see any way that Neb, Iowa, UW, and PSU are all in one division while the other division is UM & OSU and 4 patsies.

I do think that Neb and PSU will be in the same division but I think Wisconsin will be in the East division. If you're going to put PSU in the West division why wouldn't you put Wisconsin in the East.
 
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I like it. But, this is also assuming no more teams will be added. Another team, depending on what school added, could shake that up quite a bit.
 
In the next 4 years, Notre Dame is scheduled to play 32 football games against the Big 10, PAC 10, Big 12, ACC, and Big East. Conference changes will greatly impact Notre Dame's future football schedule and their other athletic programs. They may have to join a conference full-time soon.
 
I don't see any way that Neb, Iowa, UW, and PSU are all in one division while the other division is UM & OSU and 4 patsies.

I do think that Neb and PSU will be in the same division but I think Wisconsin will be in the East division. If you're going to put PSU in the West division why wouldn't you put Wisconsin in the East.

To protect the MN/WI rivalry, the oldest of them all and still virulent.

I do believe you'll see OSU/MI/PSU together in the east, with NE/IA/WI in the west. The divisions are much more balanced that way. Plus you're not penalizing the PSU fan base on every_single_divisional_game as in Jon's plan. OSU, MI and MI State are doable drives (6.5 hrs to Ann Arbor, 5.5 hrs to Columbus) or regional flights for them; west of Chicago it gets brutal whether driving or making double flight connections. Not Delaney's top consideration, but still.
 
East/West geographic split works the best. Keep all the rivalries, keep the travel sensible, and the competition is pretty even, too. OSU/Mich/PSU is not quite the juggenaut that the Big 12 South became.
 
I liked the idea of splitting tOSU into 2 separate teams, but then keeping them both in the same division! Also, lets try to keep night games off the schedule in Nov. it's too damn cold and I just truly love a great Saturday afternoon football game, which means ending the 9 and 10 AM start games too.
 
What do you propose as an objective measure for determining competitive balance? I'd be interested in knowing.

The more I think about it, the more I think there is no objective measure for determining competitive balance. Especially when we're talking about predicting competitive balance in the future.

Furthermore, what about competitive balance within each division? In the interest of equalizing long-term aggregate winning percentages between Division A and Division B, Jon has created a division of defense-optional patsies for OSU (and UM when they fire Rich Rod and eventually recover from the damage he's done). Meanwhile Division B is a murderer's row of punishing defenses. How is that any more "balanced" than a simple east/west divide?

Why do so many people assume that we need to split up UM/OSU/PSU? Because the Nittany Lions have been such a dominant force since joining the Big Ten? Because Rich Rod is bound to turn things around at UM, despite losing his only two playmakers on defense to the NFL? Because the Big 12 "proves" that geographical divisions are always bad? Because we don't think UM, OSU, and PSU wouldn't much rather play each other every year than skip each other for the likes of Illinois and Minnesota?

We can chase the white rabbit of "balanced divisions" all the way to the Mad Hatter's tea party. But I'd rather protect (and create) great in-state, border, and regional rivalries with geographic divisions, and increase competitive fairness (not to mention BTN revenue) by playing more conference games.
 
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Competitive Fairness to me just means no obvious, glaring discrepancy. Not comparison of additive winning percentages over the last 65/45/25 years, whatever. So, moving on to the rivalries ... it's true that they aren't all equal. I guess we should rank them:

Untouchable ...
1) Michigan-Ohio State (No Trophy)
2) Minnesota-Wisconsin (Slab of Bacon/Paul Bunyan's Axe)

Important ...
3) Iowa-Minnesota (Floyd of Rosedale)
4) Michigan-Michigan State (Paul Bunyan Trophy)
5) Illinois-Northwestern (Sweet Sioux Tomahawk/Land of Lincoln Trophy)
6) Indiana-Purdue (Old Oaken Bucket)
7) Michigan-Minnesota (Little Brown Jug)
8) Illinois-Ohio State (Illibuck)
9) Iowa-Wisconsin (Heartland Trophy)

Disposable ...
Indiana-Michigan State (Old Brass Spittoon)
Illinois-Purdue (Purdue Cannon)
Minnesota-Penn State (Governor's Victory Bell)
Michigan State-Penn State (Land Grant Trophy)

disagreements?
 
FYI..... Territorial Cup - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Territorial Cup is a trophy that is awarded annually to the winner of the college football game (commonly referred to as "The Duel in the Desert") between the Arizona State University (ASU) Sun Devils and the University of Arizona (UA) Wildcats The Territorial Cup is a trophy that is awarded annually to the winner of the college football game (commonly referred to as "The Duel in the Desert") between the Arizona State University (ASU) Sun Devils and the University of Arizona (UA) Wildcats and has also served as the symbol of the long standing rivalry between the two schools. The NCAA has certified it as the oldest award given for a rivalry game. The rivary is the most heated in the southwest and can challenge as one of the best in the nation.[1]and has also served as the symbol of the long standing rivalry between the two schools. The NCAA has certified it as the oldest award given for a rivalry game. The rivary is the most heated in the southwest and can challenge as one of the best in the nation.[1]
 
We can chase the white rabbit of "balanced divisions" all the way to the Mad Hatter's tea party. But I'd rather protect (and create) great in-state, border, and regional rivalries with geographic divisions, and increase competitive fairness (not to mention BTN revenue) by playing more conference games.

I asked the question because honestly I don't know any perfect way to measure competitive balance. The use of historical data can be misapplied in business and especially sports. I used it because people do look to the past as a predictor of what might happen in the future.
 
it will be a east-west divison divide

Agree, keep Psu in the East

big ten east

psu
osu
indy
purdue
msu
mich

west

neb
hawks
whisky
north
ill
mn

add rutgers and syracuse down the road and put them in the east then put mich and msu in the west for balance, make sure osu plays mich every year,
 
Those of you saying Penn St will be in the East didn't read Jon's post on Delaney's comments. Jon is basing his opinion on what Delaney said. Geography was a distant 3rd in deciding divisional alignment with competetive balance being #1.

From a historical standpoint OSU, Michigan, and PSU are the top 3 schools in the Big Ten, no way all 3 are in one division given Delaney's comments. There is no way they split OSU and Michigan up, so that leaves PSU the odd man out and in the west division. I think Jon has it pretty close. The only dilemma in his prediction is splitting NU (which is the correct abbreviation for Northwestern, not NW as someone else had posted) and Illinois. But there is no way to please everyone and keep the competetive balance. Perhaps NU and Illinois are allowed to continue to play each other every year even though they aren't in the same division. Also I honestly think Division B is stronger than A and I think that over the last 15 years Northwestern has had a stronger program than Illinois, so I think those two could be interchangeable between Div A & B, but either way would really be fine.
 

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