I completely expect(ed) Wisky, Michigan, Maryland to be losses, even before White and Gabe owies.
Purdue was the must win and that barrel has already crashed at the bottom of the falls. Because of that, Hawks already have 2 wheels off the NCAA track.
They absolutely must take care of business against Minny, Rutgers, NwU - something they've at least been able to do all year is beat those they should beat - and Illannoy at home. They also must steal one of the 2 at Nebby or Penn State, to get to 10-8. (Indiana is a guaranteed loss but at least not a "bad" one.)
So, have to finish 10-8 in B14, 19-12. That's doing what they should do and while no signature wins, no terrible losses, either. That's also a more favorable 6-4 over their last 10 - something the Committee pays more attention to than you think is how you playing now. 10-8 / 19-12 has them in the last 4 in / last 4 out discussion. That'll leave the BTT to determine which group of 4 they're in.
They can lock into the NCAA by winning both @ PSU and Nebby to get to 11-7 and 20 total wins. The BTT would then be for seed.
So, no Michigan is not "must win". Michigan is an expected loss. Don't even play, it's a guarantee. The absolute, hands-down "must wins" are Minny, Rutgers, NwU x 2, Illannoy.
