Mel Basabe says he's officially decommitted from Siena

Exactly 2012 will be the year...have you seen that class in Iowa?? it's amazing, we just need to start putting pieces in place these next two recruiting years.
 
123, you're also ignoring the two Big East offers he had. This late in the class if he can get a couple guys to fill spots next year, great. If they're in the rotation in '11-'12 or beyond, even better.
The '11 class will still be tough for him to get in on a stud like Randle because a lot of that legwork has been done and those guys will sign in 6 months. It's the 2012 class where Fran really has a legit shot and with the in-state talent, hopefully he can make his mark.
 
To expand for the group that believes (stars don't mean anything). This is the final rankings of basketball for this year. What do 10 out of the top 11 teams have in common? They all consistently bring in top rated talent (using the recruiting services). Butler is obviously an exception to the rule for 2010 (but you don't see these often). Its not a tough formula...you get the best players...you typically have the better team.

1 Duke (31) 33-5 775
2 Butler 32-4 739
3 West Virginia 31-6 696
4 Michigan State 28-8 654
5 Kentucky 35-3 650
6 Kansas 33-3 604
7 Kansas State 29-8 573
8 Syracuse 30-5 554
9 Tennessee 28-9 494
10 Baylor 28-8 487
11 Ohio State 29-8 483

I think we can all agree that the top ranked players are usually pretty good, but the stars don't mean EVERYTHING (not anything). It's going to be pretty tough for Iowa to pull in top 150 players every year when the team isn't winning. You have to build, and if you do that with not top ranked players, that's what you have to do. I'm not saying that's not a great goal, but right now I don't see it as completely feasible, every year. Now, will we be big ten champs with this talent, maybe, maybe not, but it's going to make us better, and improving is what we need to do right now. Immediately.
 
Just some background information for the fans. Mel had offers from Seton Hall and St. Johns. Since he has been released about 4-6 other high major teams have jumped in. All ther other teams he considered or was offered by were better than Iowa. URI, Northeastern, George Mason, VCU, etc.

Mel is a traditional sleeper. On his high school team he didn't start until the end of junior year. He played with Erik Murphy, a freshman at Florida, and Nate Lubick, a Georgetown commit from '10. In addition there were a couple other high major underclassmen. On the AAu circuit he played with the Gauchos, where if you have seen them play, you know his touches were limited, as they are gaurd dominated. He blew up this summer at Eastern camp and then over both open periods. Bigger schools tried to get more involved but he wanted a place where he could play right away and contribute. he has played against High Major bigs for the last 3 seasons everyday, he is definitely a high major player. In terms of his game, his rebounding, ability to finish, and block shots all translate to the high major level. Definitely needs to get stronger.
 
Just some background information for the fans. Mel had offers from Seton Hall and St. Johns. Since he has been released about 4-6 other high major teams have jumped in. All ther other teams he considered or was offered by were better than Iowa. URI, Northeastern, George Mason, VCU, etc.

Mel is a traditional sleeper. On his high school team he didn't start until the end of junior year. He played with Erik Murphy, a freshman at Florida, and Nate Lubick, a Georgetown commit from '10. In addition there were a couple other high major underclassmen. On the AAu circuit he played with the Gauchos, where if you have seen them play, you know his touches were limited, as they are gaurd dominated. He blew up this summer at Eastern camp and then over both open periods. Bigger schools tried to get more involved but he wanted a place where he could play right away and contribute. he has played against High Major bigs for the last 3 seasons everyday, he is definitely a high major player. In terms of his game, his rebounding, ability to finish, and block shots all translate to the high major level. Definitely needs to get stronger.

Bostonheel, is it safe to assume you are the same "Heel" that posted on the Siena boards? If so, welcome! Your insight is much appreciated. If not, welcome nonetheless.

However, I am going to continue with my assumption that you know Mel. Is it safe to assume if he likes what he sees in Iowa City he will commit?
 
The biggest problem with the rating (star) system is that the rankings are given to kids who are still developing physically and mentally. There is a wide gap between a 5-star and 1-star (if there is such a thing) recruit, but the difference between 2 and 4 star recruits by the end of college is a crapshoot. Many 2-star recruits end up as NBA talent, and many 4-star guys don't live up to the hype. How they can continue their development is what makes or breaks them.
 
The biggest problem with the rating (star) system is that the rankings are given to kids who are still developing physically and mentally. There is a wide gap between a 5-star and 1-star (if there is such a thing) recruit, but the difference between 2 and 4 star recruits by the end of college is a crapshoot. Many 2-star recruits end up as NBA talent, and many 4-star guys don't live up to the hype. How they can continue their development is what makes or breaks them.
Agree, BJ Mullens was a 5* for OSU and he bombed. Ryan Bowen was a 2* if they even had ratings back then and he played 10 years in the pros, now he wasnt an all-star or anything but at least he had a solid career.
 
As I have said, and shown, over and over. Major conference programs that successfully rebuild, do it quickly. Accordingly, 2012 will be too late if Caff is not able to upgrade this year and next. My feeling is he needs a guy like Basabe and an out of the blue guy that is better than Basabe this year and then three more 3* and above guys next year. That will set the stage for the big haul in 2012. While the second guy this year might not have the immediate stars, it has to become clear he really is a true exciting talent. Next year, I fully believe FM has the ability to pull three really good players.


I think we are saying the same thing really. While I do not expect Fran to pull in top 100 players this year or next(unless he lands Randle),he can get good productive players that can play. Basabe would be a good start,and then either Brust comes back and he also adds a pg,or he only gets a pg,leaving him with 3 to give next year. I expect him to get good players next year, but more top 200 types like this years original class, then in 2012, get one or two top 100 types...and away we go.

I do think that kids seem to either commit earlier than ever these days, or they are the top 15 types that wait to be free agents in April for Cal or Self to pick up. Those majority who do commit early seem to be typically locked up by mid-summer,so that only leaves Fran a couple of months to get in on the 2011 recruits...it has gotten tougher than ever for a new coach to land a big class for november signing right out of the box...SA did it his first year,signing a top 5 class within 6 months of being hired with Worley,Reiner,Sondy,Boyd,Recker,Evans,and Hogan...but that seems rare for any school not named Ky or Memphis these days. The recruiting cycle has stretched out,with kids being offered earlier and earlier...Fran will just have to do his best til his first full recruiting cycle with the 2012 class.
 
Bingo! Great post JHHawk.

Coach Caff is scrambling right now and he is using whatever contacts he has made in hopes of filling the shrinking Iowa roster. He just lost his best inside player in Fuller and has lost 2 of the top rated recruits of this incoming class. Some of you expect him to come in here and create miracles.
 
I think we are saying the same thing really. While

I do think that kids seem to either commit earlier than ever these days, or they are the top 15 types that wait to be free agents in April for Cal or Self to pick up. Those majority who do commit early seem to be typically locked up by mid-summer,so that only leaves Fran a couple of months to get in on the 2011 recruits...it has gotten tougher than ever for a new coach to land a big class for november signing right out of the box...SA did it his first year,signing a top 5 class within 6 months of being hired with Worley,Reiner,Sondy,Boyd,Recker,Evans,and Hogan...but that seems rare for any school not named Ky or Memphis these days. The recruiting cycle has stretched out,with kids being offered earlier and earlier...Fran will just have to do his best til his first full recruiting cycle with the 2012 class.

Um, yunno that is just not true.

I am getting so tired of people perpetuating this false belief. Sure, it seems reasonable, but it doesn't hold up to simple scrutiny.

Buzz Williams
Scott Drew
Tony Bennett
Chris Mack
Craig Robinson

All new coaches who signed top 20 classes in the last couple of years at schools that are not UCLA, Duke, UNC, Florida, etc. Beyond that, there were plenty of guys that signed respectable classes that Iowa fans would be glad to have here. Also, Memphis? That was not a good job until Cal got there. Now, in year two Pastner has a top class.
 
Break it down:

Buzz Williams came in with a program that had been making the NCAA tourny regularly at Marquette,right? and he inherited the senior three musketeers (McNeal,Matthews and James)who are all in the pros right now....does that compare to Iowa's situation in any way shape or form?

Drew? ...did he sign a top 20 class that first november he was at Baylor?..if he did, very impressive.

Robinson: he signed a solid class in november of 2009,but doubt it was top 20. And being the newly inaugurated presidents bro - in - law is a bit of a special situation.

Mack: again, Xavier is a rocking bb program that bears no resemblance to what Fran is inheriting.

Bennett: job well done if he signed a top 20 class last november, altho having a brand new arena with all the bells and whistles and being in Va. a state that produces tons of D-1 athletes does not resemble Frans situation either.

Memphis: more top 50 talent in Memphis the last couple years than in Iowa the last two decades....and a program that was in the national title game in 08? Yea, just like Iowa...

I expect Fran to dig up some players this year,and then do better next year...altho we might only have one to give next year if he fills them this year.
It is hard to have a top 20 class when you only give one scholly.
 
Break it down:

Buzz Williams came in with a program that had been making the NCAA tourny regularly at Marquette,right? and he inherited the senior three musketeers (McNeal,Matthews and James)who are all in the pros right now....does that compare to Iowa's situation in any way shape or form?

Drew? ...did he sign a top 20 class that first november he was at Baylor?..if he did, very impressive.

Robinson: he signed a solid class in november of 2009,but doubt it was top 20. And being the newly inaugurated presidents bro - in - law is a bit of a special situation.

Mack: again, Xavier is a rocking bb program that bears no resemblance to what Fran is inheriting.

Bennett: job well done if he signed a top 20 class last november, altho having a brand new arena with all the bells and whistles and being in Va. a state that produces tons of D-1 athletes does not resemble Frans situation either.

Memphis: more top 50 talent in Memphis the last couple years than in Iowa the last two decades....and a program that was in the national title game in 08? Yea, just like Iowa...

I expect Fran to dig up some players this year,and then do better next year...altho we might only have one to give next year if he fills them this year.
It is hard to have a top 20 class when you only give one scholly.

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect him to sign a top 20 class (and yes, Robinson's class was ranked top 20 by rivals). However, I think he can add players that are more than just solid guys.

Also, unless something changes dramatically, I would hope he would do a little work to clear the roster to sign guys for 2011. With the exception of South Carolina and Cal, no coach that was hired since 2007 recruited a strong class without doing REALLY, REALLY well somewhere in the first two classes. Not sure what happened at USC, but Cal has Mike Montgomery.

So, actually, we better hope that FM brings in good talent very soon, or the odds are against him doing it in the future.

So, in fact, it is far less probable that a coach could win with a slow and steady recruiting strategy in this day and age, than he can sign an impressive class in his first full year after hire.

I will say this to finish. Sure, Iowa is a unique situation. But whomever is coach at Iowa has to get past that. Drew did it at Baylor, and other guys have done it at other places, even Iowa and ISU. It really only takes getting that one special player to turn things around.
 
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