MBB: Iowa at Iowa State Preview/Prediction

storminspank

storminspank

Justin VanLaere



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By Justin VanLaere
The Iowa State Cyclones will host the Iowa Hawkeyes tonight inside Hilton, as the Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series continues. The Hawks are coming off a hard-to-swallow loss to UNI, while the Cyclones recently came away with a 25 point win over Prairie View A&M. This very well could be the last time these two teams play each other for the foreseeable future. This week, Coach McCaffery talked about looking at the “big pictureâ€, which could include dropping the in-state games to enable greater flexibility in scheduling.
Game Info

Iowa Hawkeyes (5-4) at Iowa State Cyclones (6-3)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 137, ISU– 84
REALTIMERPI: Iowa – 187, ISU– 106
CBS RPI: Iowa – N/A, ISU- 62
MASSEY RANKING: Iowa – 178, ISU- 75
Tip Off: Friday, December 9th 2011; 7:05 PM CST
Ames, IA – Hilton Coliseum (14,356)
TV: CTN/ESPN3/ESPN FullCourt/Clone Zone
Radio: AM 600, 1040, and 800. SiriusXM 85 (ISU broadcast).
Iowa leads the series 42-22.
LINE: Iowa is an 8.5 point underdog. Pomeroy predicts Iowa to lose by 9 points.
JOIN US FOR A LIVE CHAT DURING THE GAME!

Projected Starters


IOWA
PG – Devyn Marble, 6’6â€, 194 lb, SO
G – Matt Gatens, 6’5â€, 212 lb, SR
G – Eric May, 6’5â€, 217 lb, JR
F – Melsahn Basabe, 6’7â€, 225 lb, SO
F – Zach McCabe, 6’7â€, 232 lb, SO

ISU

G – Chris Allen, 6’3″, 205 lb, SR
G – Scott Christopherson, 6’3″, 195 lb, SR
G – Chris Babb, 6’5″, 225 lb, JR
F – Royce White, 6’8″, 270 lb, SO
C – Percy Gibson, 6’9″, 245 lb, FR

Iowa goes from playing a well-disciplined, well-coached team in UNI to a less organized, not-so-well coached team in ISU. Speaking of Northern Iowa, both teams have lost to Panthers already this year. ISU dropped a 9 point affair in Ames, while Iowa lost by 20 inside the McLeod Center. However, if you actually watched both of the games, you could argue that the Hawkeyes looked better against UNI than did ISU… the final score notwithstanding.
Iowa State boasts four transfers in their starting lineup. Three came from B1G programs (Allen – MSU, Babb – PSU, White – Minn), while Christopherson is from Marquette.
Both teams will feature a non-point guard playing the 1 spot. Iowa State has given up on the Scotty Experiment and handed the PG duties off to Chris Allen. For Iowa, it’s highly, highly unlikely Bryce Cartwright will be able to go, so that means Devyn Marble will retain the starting spot. Bryce hasn’t done much of anything since he tweaked his hammy during the Brown game, including practing or even running.
The Cyclones are really, really good on offense and really, really bad on defense. Most of their offensive efficiencies are in the Top 75 in the nation, while most their defensive efficiencies are in the bottom 250 in the nation. Iowa has proven they can score in buckets against poor defenses.

KEYS TO GAME FOR IOWA:
- Close Out on the Shooters. The Cyclones are an excellent shooting ball club. Don’t let the last few games fool you, they can really stroke it from the outside. Iowa has proven that they can and will allow good shooting teams (and even bad shooting teams) to abuse them from the perimeter. With someone like Royce White down low, it will make it even more difficult for the Hawkeyes to commit to stopping the outside shot. This will not be an easy task for Iowa.
- Pick Your Poison Inside. Royce White is a very talented big man, we know this. He leads Iowa State in pretty much category he can and is their go-to-guy. Recently, freshman Percy Gibson has emerged as a nice option in the paint for the Cyclones. If Iowa puts too much focus on White, Gibson could reap a lot of the benefits.
- Take the Crowd Out of It. There’s some magic still alive in Hilton. It might not be at the level it was back in the 90′s, but there is some in there. Hilton can be a very, very tough place to play. If Iowa can get on a run and sustain some success, it will help Iowa overcome the hostile environment they are about to face.

PREDICTION: Iowa State is not a complete team, far from it. However, they do have the better talent and they will be at home. You never know which Cyclone team is going to show up, but the same thing can be said about the Hawkeyes. Both of these teams have been so very inconsistent through the first 1/3 of the season. Iowa is better than the 8.5 point spread, but it’s tough to take them on the road inside Hilton. FINAL SCORE: Iowa 81, ISU 86
 
ISU 81 -63

This could get ugly without Cartwright, hope I'm wrong but I'm going to wait until next October to get excited again, we need a huge infusion of talent over the next few years!
 
I was actually thinking that both teams are ice cold. Iowa just because they can't shoot, and ISU because Iowa comes out and emphasises actually guarding the 3 point line and refusing to be beaten by the 3-ball.

Im going lower and closer (just hoping for a thriller): ISU 68 v. Iowa 64
 
storminspank said:
Speaking of Northern Iowa, both teams have lost to Panthers already this year. ISU dropped a 9 point affair in Ames, while Iowa lost by 20 inside the McLeod Center. However, if you actually watched both of the games, you could argue that the Hawkeyes looked better against UNI than did ISU… the final score notwithstanding.
Click to expand...

is this a joke? Wasn't ISU down by one or two with a minute left in the game?
 
I predicted UNI by 20 and I was correct (though we played better than that I'm still taking credit for an exactly correct prediction as they happen rarely) I predict ISU by 17.
 
if we can't stop anyone down low, i don't expect us to hold royce much under 25. that, and they'll have plenty of wide open looks from outside. will be interesting to see who matches up with royce and if they can stay out of foul trouble.

going to need basabe, may and gatens to show up for this one or we have no chance.

Iowa 60 - ISU 75 i'd be stoked if we could get close to covering the spread, i don't like our chances in this one. but, boy if we win, they're going to be in full meltdown over there at CF.
 
In Iowa's 5 wins, average margin = 87 - 63, +24.
In Iowa's 4 losses, average margin = 59 - 78, <19>.

Conclusion:
Stop predicting close games. Almost 1/3 through the season and Iowa either wins big or gets crushed. The smallest margin in any Iowa game was a 10 point W over IPFWFPUIndianaU.

ISU averages 9.8 3's / game - 8th in the country
Iowa is 280th in overall fg defense (allowing 45.7%!) and 228th in 3-pt fg defense (allowing 35.1%).

Conclusion:
Any team that can get hot from the outside will be hot from the outside against Iowa. This will spread Iowa out, then allow White to abuse a mentally weak, foul-prone Basabe and Brommer on the inside.

It's at Hilton.
In Iowa's 2 away games, both losses, average margin = 81 - 59.5, <21>.

Conclusion:
Hostile environments can be somewhat negated by senior leadership. Iowa has zero upper class leadership and will be without their floor leader, Cartwright, to keep the team executing the offense. Marble was solid at UNI but his propensity to want to press to take over games / loose-canon tendencies will be an easy mark for a hositle Hilton crowd in a rivalry game.

In every win, Iowa scored 75 or more.
In every loss, Iowa scored 61 or fewer.
Over all games, Iowa averages 74.6 to opponents' 69.2.

Conclusion:
Iowa needs to score closer to its average - 75 points - to win but only needs to allow 62 points (a full 7 points lower than opponents average) to lose.


Doomsday stat:
Iowa has not scored 75 points on the road since beating Minnesota (91 - 78) ... on February 7, 2007.

Bottom line:
Another awesome loss, ISU 84 - Iowa 61.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
In Iowa's 5 wins, average margin = 87 - 63, +24.
In Iowa's 4 losses, average margin = 59 - 78, <19>.

Conclusion:
Stop predicting close games. Almost 1/3 through the season and Iowa either wins big or gets crushed. The smallest margin in any Iowa game was a 10 point W over IPFWFPUIndianaU.

ISU averages 9.8 3's / game - 8th in the country
Iowa is 280th in overall fg defense (allowing 45.7%!) and 228th in 3-pt fg defense (allowing 35.1%).

Conclusion:
Any team that can get hot from the outside will be hot from the outside against Iowa. This will spread Iowa out, then allow White to abuse a mentally weak, foul-prone Basabe and Brommer on the inside.

It's at Hilton.
In Iowa's 2 away games, both losses, average margin = 81 - 59.5, <21>.

Conclusion:
Hostile environments can be somewhat negated by senior leadership. Iowa has zero upper class leadership and will be without their floor leader, Cartwright, to keep the team executing the offense. Marble was solid at UNI but his propensity to want to press to take over games / loose-canon tendencies will be an easy mark for a hositle Hilton crowd in a rivalry game.

In every win, Iowa scored 75 or more.
In every loss, Iowa scored 61 or fewer.
Over all games, Iowa averages 74.6 to opponents' 69.2.

Conclusion:
Iowa needs to score closer to its average - 75 points - to win but only needs to allow 62 points (a full 7 points lower than opponents average) to lose.


Doomsday stat:
Iowa has not scored 75 points on the road since beating Minnesota (91 - 78) ... on February 7, 2007.

Bottom line:
Another awesome loss, ISU 84 - Iowa 61.
Click to expand...

wow, good breakdown!
 
STILLBUSTER said:
In Iowa's 5 wins, average margin = 87 - 63, +24.
In Iowa's 4 losses, average margin = 59 - 78, <19>.

Conclusion:
Stop predicting close games. Almost 1/3 through the season and Iowa either wins big or gets crushed. The smallest margin in any Iowa game was a 10 point W over IPFWFPUIndianaU.

ISU averages 9.8 3's / game - 8th in the country
Iowa is 280th in overall fg defense (allowing 45.7%!) and 228th in 3-pt fg defense (allowing 35.1%).

Conclusion:
Any team that can get hot from the outside will be hot from the outside against Iowa. This will spread Iowa out, then allow White to abuse a mentally weak, foul-prone Basabe and Brommer on the inside.

It's at Hilton.
In Iowa's 2 away games, both losses, average margin = 81 - 59.5, <21>.

Conclusion:
Hostile environments can be somewhat negated by senior leadership. Iowa has zero upper class leadership and will be without their floor leader, Cartwright, to keep the team executing the offense. Marble was solid at UNI but his propensity to want to press to take over games / loose-canon tendencies will be an easy mark for a hositle Hilton crowd in a rivalry game.

In every win, Iowa scored 75 or more.
In every loss, Iowa scored 61 or fewer.
Over all games, Iowa averages 74.6 to opponents' 69.2.

Conclusion:
Iowa needs to score closer to its average - 75 points - to win but only needs to allow 62 points (a full 7 points lower than opponents average) to lose.


Doomsday stat:
Iowa has not scored 75 points on the road since beating Minnesota (91 - 78) ... on February 7, 2007.

Bottom line:
Another awesome loss, ISU 84 - Iowa 61.
Click to expand...

Picking a close game is just going with the law of averages. Eventually there is going to be some close games. They can't keep up that pace with the wins or losses all year.
 
CyChamp said:
Interesting that Cartwright is playing and ISU is back to their original starting lineup.
Click to expand...

Big shocker that Cartwright is playing right? :rolleyes: Could it have been any more obvious all week? I hate mind games, Coach Fran should have just said there is a chance he will play but nothing is certain. Its not like CFH is a moron and didn't prepare with the possibility of BC playing.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
In Iowa's 5 wins, average margin = 87 - 63, +24.
In Iowa's 4 losses, average margin = 59 - 78, <19>.

Conclusion:
Stop predicting close games. Almost 1/3 through the season and Iowa either wins big or gets crushed. The smallest margin in any Iowa game was a 10 point W over IPFWFPUIndianaU.

ISU averages 9.8 3's / game - 8th in the country
Iowa is 280th in overall fg defense (allowing 45.7%!) and 228th in 3-pt fg defense (allowing 35.1%).

Conclusion:
Any team that can get hot from the outside will be hot from the outside against Iowa. This will spread Iowa out, then allow White to abuse a mentally weak, foul-prone Basabe and Brommer on the inside.

It's at Hilton.
In Iowa's 2 away games, both losses, average margin = 81 - 59.5, <21>.

Conclusion:
Hostile environments can be somewhat negated by senior leadership. Iowa has zero upper class leadership and will be without their floor leader, Cartwright, to keep the team executing the offense. Marble was solid at UNI but his propensity to want to press to take over games / loose-canon tendencies will be an easy mark for a hositle Hilton crowd in a rivalry game.

In every win, Iowa scored 75 or more.
In every loss, Iowa scored 61 or fewer.
Over all games, Iowa averages 74.6 to opponents' 69.2.

Conclusion:
Iowa needs to score closer to its average - 75 points - to win but only needs to allow 62 points (a full 7 points lower than opponents average) to lose.


Doomsday stat:
Iowa has not scored 75 points on the road since beating Minnesota (91 - 78) ... on February 7, 2007.

Bottom line:
Another awesome loss, ISU 84 - Iowa 61.
Click to expand...

Good stuff here.
I did point out last prediction that Iowa has been 10+ on their wins and 15+ on all their losses, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will stay that way the rest of the year. I went with a closer score this time because I don't know what to expect from either team. They've been that inconsistent.
 
clicheusername3 said:
Big shocker that Cartwright is playing right? :rolleyes: Could it have been any more obvious all week? I hate mind games, Coach Fran should have just said there is a chance he will play but nothing is certain. Its not like CFH is a moron and didn't prepare with the possibility of BC playing.
Click to expand...

I'm trying to decide if it's good or bad for ISU... you guys played well without him.
 
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