Lunardi Must be on Crack

storminspank said:
Like this one from last year.

Deace was bragging about getting 79% correct. That's basically missing all the bubble teams. I was at 98% when I did it.

http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/basketball/43240-bracetology-2012-a.html
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Too many people don't understand that Lunardi and most of the projections aren't predicting any future results with their "projections."
It's supposed to be, "if selection was today."

Thus, comparison of most of these brackets from two or three weeks out to the actual field really doesn't have any meaning. There isn't any valid comparison.

And, as Spank was talking about, getting 79% of teams correct even if you are projecting, like the Deace thread, is truly terrible. Thats 53 out of 68 correct.

15 misses? Isn't that missing every team except the ones that even casual observers could have picked as locks? Even with 3 or 4 tournament upsets (which I'm guessing would be fairly high historically), thats still basically 3 entire at-large seeding lines missing.

People put way too much stock in to this.

Lunardi is saying Iowa still has work to do, not that they won't make it. There resume just isn't there yet. Anyone disagree with that?
 
was reading the conversation thing on ESPN for the Nebraska game, and Lunardi (atleast pretty sure it was him) said if Iowa wins 4 of the last 5 that he has us in. People need to understand that the bracket projections that Lunardi comes out with is NOT really a projection, but who is in right now, not who will be projected to be in at seasons end.
 
hawks2187 said:
was reading the conversation thing on ESPN for the Nebraska game, and Lunardi (atleast pretty sure it was him) said if Iowa wins 4 of the last 5 that he has us in. People need to understand that the bracket projections that Lunardi comes out with is NOT really a projection, but who is in right now, not who will be projected to be in at seasons end.
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I don't think it was really him.
 
Lunardi is 98-100% accurate every year on the Final Day. He simply nails it almost every time. As others have said this is "as of today" and he's right, "as of today" Iowa isn't in. Just win 4-5 and you're good. Simple as that.

Lunardi has a track record of knowing exactly what he's doing.
 
hawkmatt said:
I don't think it was really him.
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IDK for sure if it was him or not but the name that said if we win 4 of 5 we are in was Joe Lunardi ESPN, so have no idea if ESPN would allow someone to troll with that name or not but some bs if they would.
 
We just need to focus on our games and let the chips fall where they may. Next year we dominate. National champs. Stone cold lead pipe lock.
 
hawks2187 said:
IDK for sure if it was him or not but the name that said if we win 4 of 5 we are in was Joe Lunardi ESPN, so have no idea if ESPN would allow someone to troll with that name or not but some bs if they would.
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It could be but...I'm thinking he'd have a picture next to him and I bet you can change your name pretty easily on there. I wouldn't think espn boards are closely moderated.
 
hawkmatt said:
It could be but...I'm thinking he'd have a picture next to him and I bet you can change your name pretty easily on there. I wouldn't think espn boards are closely moderated.
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yeah i could see how they aren't moderated closely, since u have so many teams/sports with message boards and there was no picture... damn you espn and damn you hawkmatt for rainin on my parade
 
Going 4-1 and losing first round game in the BTT to the #11 seed (Nebby or NW) would still be iffy.

A win in round one vs. lower seed is a must.
 
We very well could finish ahead of Minnesota and Illinios.....

Illinois has to play at Michigan, Ohio State and IOWA.....

MInnesota has to play at Ohio State and Purdue and Indiana at home....

I like our chances. We finish above them, we Dance.....
 
jacknicholson said:
We very well could finish ahead of Minnesota and Illinios.....

Illinois has to play at Michigan, Ohio State and IOWA.....

MInnesota has to play at Ohio State and Purdue and Indiana at home....

I like our chances. We finish above them, we Dance.....
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Except for the fact that the committee doesn't use conference standings to examine teams' resumes.
 
I don't believe that for a second. The public doesn't know what the committee actually does behind closed doors. I also believe the committee takes note of head-to-head games. We are 2-1 against Minnesota and Illinois if we achieve the 10-8 mark.

ameshawkeye said:
Except for the fact that the committee doesn't use conference standings to examine teams' resumes.
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WindsorHawk said:
I don't believe that for a second. The public doesn't know what the committee actually does behind closed doors. I also believe the committee takes note of head-to-head games. We are 2-1 against Minnesota and Illinois if we achieve the 10-8 mark.
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That was taken from quotes from the committee members, and those who were recently in the mock selection process done by media members. You may not believe it, but that's the case.

The selection won't be Iowa vs. Minn vs. Illinois. It's all of these teams in a pool with the rest of the at-larges. Within that pool you can't compare conference records and standings because of unbalanced leagues schedules.

The may take note of head-to head games if it were literally down to one spot between two teams, otherwise it doesn't make sense. You have to use the entire resume.
 
It's correct that conference standing guarantees nothing..

ameshawkeye said:
That was taken from quotes from the committee members, and those who were recently in the mock selection process done by media members. You may not believe it, but that's the case.

The selection won't be Iowa vs. Minn vs. Illinois. It's all of these teams in a pool with the rest of the at-larges. Within that pool you can't compare conference records and standings because of unbalanced leagues schedules.

The may take note of head-to head games if it were literally down to one spot between two teams, otherwise it doesn't make sense. You have to use the entire resume.
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but what Iowa finishing 6th in the league would do was provide a data point in Iowa's favor. If, and big if, Iowa finishes 4-1 (with loss to Indiana) that would include beating Illinois, which would give Iowa another win over a Top 50 RPI team.

Not really all that important that most bracket updates at this point don't include Iowa. Lunardi and the like are looking at a snapshot in time (now). And right now Iowa's resume is lacking. More wins (including a road win and another Top 30 RPI win) would change Iowa's resume significantly. But Iowa has to win to make that happen.
 
WindsorHawk said:
I don't believe that for a second. The public doesn't know what the committee actually does behind closed doors. I also believe the committee takes note of head-to-head games. We are 2-1 against Minnesota and Illinois if we achieve the 10-8 mark.
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I don't know exactly what the committee thinks when looking at teams, but I'd have to believe it's better for us to finish in 6th place in the conference with a 21-10 record, rather than 8th with a 21-10 record (if that's even possible, I'm not sure). Although our resume would still be identical, it could be a psychological thing. Kind of like how paying $3.99 for something at the store looks better than paying $4.

I'm going to guess that head-to-head against Illinois or Minnesota wouldn't really matter unless it comes down to Iowa vs. one of those two teams for an invite. In this case, it sounds like Illinois and Minnesota are both likely at-large invites. In other words, I think the true comparison will simply be Iowa's resume vs. that of other bubble teams (say Villanova, Maryland, etc.).

The wins against Minny/ILL would simply be "good wins" for our resume.
 
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Re: It's correct that conference standing guarantees nothing..

DodgerHawki said:
but what Iowa finishing 6th in the league would do was provide a data point in Iowa's favor. If, and big if, Iowa finishes 4-1 (with loss to Indiana) that would include beating Illinois, which would give Iowa another win over a Top 50 RPI team.

Not really all that important that most bracket updates at this point don't include Iowa. Lunardi and the like are looking at a snapshot in time (now). And right now Iowa's resume is lacking. More wins (including a road win and another Top 30 RPI win) would change Iowa's resume significantly. But Iowa has to win to make that happen.
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I agree with you about everything besides that data point. What does finishing 6th signify? It isn't something that is comparable across conferences. The committee isn't likely to say we think we like Iowa better than Virginia because they finished 6th in the B1G and UVA finished 5th in the ACC, and so on.
 
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