Lunardi Must be on Crack

[1977Hawkeye]

Re: It's correct that conference standing guarantees nothing..

but what Iowa finishing 6th in the league would do was provide a data point in Iowa's favor. If, and big if, Iowa finishes 4-1 (with loss to Indiana) that would include beating Illinois, which would give Iowa another win over a Top 50 RPI team.

Not really all that important that most bracket updates at this point don't include Iowa. Lunardi and the like are looking at a snapshot in time (now). And right now Iowa's resume is lacking. More wins (including a road win and another Top 30 RPI win) would change Iowa's resume significantly. But Iowa has to win to make that happen.

Exactly the way I see it. May as well finish 6th instead of 7th or 8th. It can't hurt. And that's absolutely correct - the current Bracketology is simply what it looks like TODAY. That is very fluid and will continue to change right up until the conference tournaments are wrapping up.

 

[ameshawkeye]

I don't know exactly what the committee thinks when looking at teams, but I'd have to believe it's better for us to finish in 6th place in the conference with a 21-10 record, rather than 8th with a 21-10 record (if that's even possible, I'm not sure). Although our resume would still be identical, it could be a psychological thing. Kind of like how paying $3.99 for something at the store looks better than paying $4.

I'm going to guess that head-to-head against Illinois or Minnesota wouldn't really matter unless it comes down to Iowa vs. one of those two teams for an invite. In this case, it sounds like Illinois and Minnesota are both likely at-large invites. In other words, I think the true comparison will simply be Iowa's resume vs. that of other bubble teams (say Villanova, Maryland, etc.).

The wins against Minny/ILL would simply be "good wins" for our resume.

I think that's the point, with an identical record, 6th or 8th makes no difference if the resume is the same (quality wins/losses etc.). They aren't setting a cap on the number of teams from a conference. If the resume is good enough, you're in regardless. Maybe, it could be a psychological thing, I suppose but if its really coming down to that, the team probably isn't good enough.

You are right about Iowa and MN/IL.

 

[storminspank]

Lunardi is 98-100% accurate every year on the Final Day. He simply nails it almost every time. As others have said this is "as of today" and he's right, "as of today" Iowa isn't in. Just win 4-5 and you're good. Simple as that.

Lunardi has a track record of knowing exactly what he's doing.

And the point further remains, it's not that hard to know what he's doing. 99% of anyone who follows college BB can do it.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

I think that's the point, with an identical record, 6th or 8th makes no difference if the resume is the same (quality wins/losses etc.). They aren't setting a cap on the number of teams from a conference. If the resume is good enough, you're in regardless. Maybe, it could be a psychological thing, I suppose but if its really coming down to that, the team probably isn't good enough.

You are right about Iowa and MN/IL.

You are probably correct. For it to come down to exactly which place Iowa finished in the conference standings, it would be REALLY splitting hairs.

But i agree, it's the overall resume, regardless of conference standings, that really matters in the end. A team's resume probably more or less exists in a vacuum. What's your RPI, your record against Top 50, Top 100? What bad losses? Record in last 10 games? That stuff matters far more. Do enough things for your resume, and conference standings usually take care of themselves. Just like if Iowa wins 4 of the last 5, it's pretty likely they will finish 6th anyway, or at least tied for 6th.

 

[clicheusername3]

he's actually on meth. the correct answer was meth.

 

[Wassabbe]

We have a HORRIBLE OOC schedule. Just pathetic. That is why we have to get some big wins to make it. We don't really have those at this point in time. Wisconsin at home was nice but we need more.

 

[IowaFan81]

Except for the fact that the committee doesn't use conference standings to examine teams' resumes.

Wrong, while they may not say that they do, they know exactly how a team finished in it's conference and if they beat other bubble teams from that conference.

 

[clicheusername3]

Wrong, while they may not say that they do, they know exactly how a team finished in it's conference and if they beat other bubble teams from that conference.

Not according to Jerry Palm, but hey, who am I gonna believe? Ya, I'll go with Palm and that is saying something as his brackets are terrible.

 

[Campbell]

That was taken from quotes from the committee members, and those who were recently in the mock selection process done by media members. You may not believe it, but that's the case.

The selection won't be Iowa vs. Minn vs. Illinois. It's all of these teams in a pool with the rest of the at-larges. Within that pool you can't compare conference records and standings because of unbalanced leagues schedules.

The may take note of head-to head games if it were literally down to one spot between two teams, otherwise it doesn't make sense. You have to use the entire resume.

This is the smartest assessment I've read on this board in weeks.

The comittee doesn't just say, 'Hey, the Big 10 is good so lets make sure we get seven or eight of those schools in the tournament." They look at the resumes of every at large team in the country and compare them to each other. Iowa might finish 6th, but Illinois and Minnesota have better resume wins so even if they finish seventh and eighth, they could get invited over Iowa. It's happens all the time. It's ignorant to say if we finish 10-8 in the Big 10 we're in.

 

[blubberhawk]

Lunardi is typically way off until a day or two before the announcement, then he magically has the teams changed and only misses on a couple.
When I took this stuff seriously, I outperformed him every year. That's not bragging, it's just that choosing at-large bid is actually pretty easy. It gets down to about 7 or 8 teams for 4 spots. Not hard.

Baylor & ISU in??

Baylor couldn't beat Northwestern in Waco.
ISU has one decent win.. K. State and that was in Ames.

 

[vosov]

Not according to Jerry Palm, but hey, who am I gonna believe? Ya, I'll go with Palm and that is saying something as his brackets are terrible.

I think what he is saying is, the people on the committee are humans, not computers. Even though it may not be part of their "official" criteria, the fact that Iowa finishes strong will be known by the committee members, unless they make it a point to not pay any attention to college basketball whatsoever.

 

[ameshawkeye]

I think what he is saying is, the people on the committee are humans, not computers. Even though it may not be part of their "official" criteria, the fact that Iowa finishes strong will be known by the committee members, unless they make it a point to not pay any attention to college basketball whatsoever.

Finishing strong is certainly part of the criteria, and that's widely accepted. Thats different from what he was saying, that the committee cares whether Iowa finishes 6th or 8th, which is pretty irrelevant(given the same ending resume).

 

[ameshawkeye]

This is the smartest assessment I've read on this board in weeks.

The comittee doesn't just say, 'Hey, the Big 10 is good so lets make sure we get seven or eight of those schools in the tournament." They look at the resumes of every at large team in the country and compare them to each other. Iowa might finish 6th, but Illinois and Minnesota have better resume wins so even if they finish seventh and eighth, they could get invited over Iowa. It's happens all the time. It's ignorant to say if we finish 10-8 in the Big 10 we're in.

I appreciate the compliment, but this stuff is pretty basic logic. Look, we'll all feel better if we finish higher in the standings, but people want to create this magic record and placement in the standings that gets Iowa invited. If they keep winning, it will take care of itself.

 

[jackl]

I think what he is saying is, the people on the committee are humans, not computers. Even though it may not be part of their "official" criteria, the fact that Iowa finishes strong will be known by the committee members, unless they make it a point to not pay any attention to college basketball whatsoever.

If they do take notice that Iowa finished strong,they will also notice who they finished strong against.