Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm)

[CAARHawk]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

Haven't read through the whole thread, but Hitchens, Miller, and KMM might be multi -year starters out of necessity, not necessarily ability. On a good Iowa team all three are ST players.

 

[FreedComanche]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

I don't understand all the arguments and excuses. Bottom line is Iowa's staff is not recruiting well enough and has not recruited well enough for a while. Period. Literally hundreds of millions have been poured into facilities, airplanes, bells and whistles to attract this kids and I would argue that in terms of "bait", Iowa is now on par with the upper 25 programs in the Country. Of course, we also pay our coach like a NC winner. Yet, we just finished almost last in the B10 in recruiting. Quite frankly, it is inexusible.

Neil, that lady you married last year is pretty. Too bad she's young enough to be your daughter.

FreedComanche

 

[jo12208]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

Haven't read through the whole thread, but Hitchens, Miller, and KMM might be multi -year starters out of necessity, not necessarily ability. On a good Iowa team all three are ST players.

Exactly!! Someone has to start. Just because a 2 star starts doesn't make him a good player. I couldn't agree with you more, Caarhawk.

Nebraska is a state with similar if not worse drawbacks in recruiting because of their geography. They are on a higher level than Iowa. I don't think that they have the attitude that "we are just little ole Nebraska".

 

[hawkeyegamefilm]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

Haven't read through the whole thread, but Hitchens, Miller, and KMM might be multi -year starters out of necessity, not necessarily ability. On a good Iowa team all three are ST players.

These debates are always tough to do, but KMM was the 3rd WR as a Freshman and a starter as a sophomore, and he produced both years. He led the team in receptions a year ago; though I'm not sure anyone on last year's offense can consider their year a success. I'd still call that one a hit.

Hitchens? He was a solid depth/special teamer for a year. His first year as a starter showed some holes in his game but he produced 124TOT 5.5TFL and 1 sack. Did he make too many tackles too far down the field? No doubt, but he's apparently the best Iowa has at the WILL for now and you can't blame him for that. I'd call him a hit.

Miller? He was actually pretty good his first year as a starter as a Soph, but was underwhelming as a JR. Not entirely sure what the deal is there, but he's got another year to redeem himself. Of the 3 he's the best candidate for being 'a starter out of necessity'.

Honestly though, do you expect every 2* kid to be a starter? Even Iowa shouldn't expect that despite their history of turning 2* recruits into NFL caliber talent. I'd consider getting special teams/2 deep guys out of your 2* guys a 'hit'.

 

[g11]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

That 09' class was the real killer. Two solid seniors left on the program though.

 

[CAARHawk]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

These debates are always tough to do, but KMM was the 3rd WR as a Freshman and a starter as a sophomore, and he produced both years. He led the team in receptions a year ago; though I'm not sure anyone on last year's offense can consider their year a success. I'd still call that one a hit.

Hitchens? He was a solid depth/special teamer for a year. His first year as a starter showed some holes in his game but he produced 124TOT 5.5TFL and 1 sack. Did he make too many tackles too far down the field? No doubt, but he's apparently the best Iowa has at the WILL for now and you can't blame him for that. I'd call him a hit.

Miller? He was actually pretty good his first year as a starter as a Soph, but was underwhelming as a JR. Not entirely sure what the deal is there, but he's got another year to redeem himself. Of the 3 he's the best candidate for being 'a starter out of necessity'.

Honestly though, do you expect every 2* kid to be a starter? Even Iowa shouldn't expect that despite their history of turning 2* recruits into NFL caliber talent. I'd consider getting special teams/2 deep guys out of your 2* guys a 'hit'.

Yeah, I was a little tough on KMM. But, that being said, at this point he should have been a third receiver at best. He was a starter on the worst Hawkeye receiving group in recent history. You have to go all the way back to DD starting as a frosh to come up with a comparable group.

But my point isn't if these guys could eventually be starters, but that they are not good enough to have been "multiyear" starters at this point. Instead, they should have been running down the field and making tackles on ST. This is the hallmark of the weak Iowa teams under Ferentz. We have all watched these young kids get the snot kicked out of them. It happened with the first young group of linemen. It happened with Shada, King and Kroul, And now it happens with this group.

 

[NeilDiamond]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

Overall, Iowa is getting 0 star results out of many positions. Safety and LB being glaring sore spots.

 

[BILLBUCKNER]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

It may not be easy, but there is no reason it has to be this hard either.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again here. You have an amazing college town, great campus, wonderful facilities, hot girls. The issue is in marketing. And KF refuses to acknowledge that he has to sell the University constantly not to recruits but publicly and in a way that is certainly outside his comfort zone.

When was the last time you heard him say Go Hawks in an interview or its Great to be a Hawkeye? When have you seen him be a cheerleader in public for the school. When have you seen him be enthusiastic about the university in a time and place where it would be noticed.

I get that it's not him, but when you are at a place like Iowa, I believe it is a prerequisite to be successful. The golden era of Iowa football is now 9 seasons in the past. People talk about the 2008 team, but that was still just an 8 win regular season, which to me is the baseline for a good year, not a great one. You can't be living in a "in the past decade moment" when each year that passes is removing one of the good years.

Little things like uniform changes, aren't necessary at blue bloods but when you are trying to brand yourself nationally, they help.

To be fair, this isn't all on KF. Barta could be stronger in this, our sports marketing department is an absolute and total embarrassment to the school.

If recruiting at Iowa is recruiting with one hand tied behind your back, than the people in power seemingly volunteer to tie the other one behind themselves on their own.

Outstanding post! Ferentz is a statesman like coach. He'll never be Fry,but dammit Kirk, lighten up and act like you like your gig and where you live and sell the crap out of it. Agree on our sports marketing..They totally blow.

 

[Johnnyhawkeye]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

I am not overly impressed with this class, but I guess only time will tell. Good luck future Hawks, I'll still be rooting for you every Saturday.

 

[dave3912]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

I am not overly impressed with this class, but I guess only time will tell. Good luck future Hawks, I'll still be rooting for you every Saturday.

I don't think anyone is overly impressed but no one should be acting like it is a horrible class either.

You are correct, only time will truly tell how good or bad it really is.

 

[Seth53]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

Neil, that lady you married last year is pretty. Too bad she's young enough to be your daughter.

FreedComanche

Ha ha ha excellent

 

[Casman]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

Signing Day is nearly its end for 2013 and fans are already beginning to turn their attention to the Class of 2014 and Spring Football.

Before all thoughts leave this year's recruiting class, consider a few things; Iowa's football program, during the Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz era's, has been built upon the backs of mostly unheralded players. The number of pedigreed prospects who sign with Iowa is few and even fewer are those who see senior day. The majority of the players who perform well and over time for Iowa are the players that few high major programs were after. Players for whom their other offers were from leagues like the MAC.

I've written it before and I am writing it again; Iowa has to work harder and smarter than the majority of their conference peers if they are going to fare well in the Big Ten.

On a given year there will be four to six prospects in the state who are BCS conference caliber players. Some years may see a few more than that while other years will see less. The state of Iowa is at a latitude that does not offer the opportunity for spring football like they have in the southern states. Football just isn't the religion in this region that it is in the south and its never going to be. Iowa is always going to have to go recruit in other states where it isn't the household name or 'the' program players grow up following or cheering for, which means it will lose far more recruiting battles than it wins.

It's the diamonds in the rough, the players with the chips on their shoulders who have done well at Iowa and a collection of such over achievers which has allowed Iowa to put together some exciting and successful seasons through the years.

Along with that comes the razor thing edge between success and struggles. The Iowa program has done an outstanding job of developing off the radar talent, so good they are one of the best at it over the past decade. They've turned unheralded classes into Big Ten bullies.

Recruiting at Iowa is simply going to 'trade in a range' over the long haul and that will typically be somewhere between the 30th and 40th best class in the nation and the 6th to 8th best class in the Big Ten.

This year's Iowa class is trending towards outlier status, as it's going to setting somewhere in the low 50's nationally and 9th, 10th or 11th in the Big Ten. That's happened before and it will happen again.

It happening this year, on the heels of a 4-8 season, has fans a little more agitated than normal.

Rewind to February of 2009. Iowa was coming off a 9-4 season and finished with a great deal of momentum. Fans were optimistic about the future of the program, even though the previous three seasons saw them on the brink of despair and just four months prior some fans were calling for Kirk Ferentz's head when Iowa got off to a 3-3 and then 5-4 start to that season. Iowa won 19 games between 2005-2007, with 2005's 7-6 record being a big disappointment for a team that was ranked highly to begin the year and with 2007 being a year where Iowa missed a bowl game.

Iowa has won 19 games over the past three seasons, the 2010 season was enormously disappointing and the end of that three year run saw Iowa miss a bowl game this year.

But again, circle back around to what the last four games of the 2008 season did for the paradigm of the fans; it mean't everything. Ferentz went from nearing goat status to G.O.A.T. debates in two months.

Iowa's recruiting class for 2009? It was ranked dead last in the Big Ten, which is really the only ranking that matters because 66 percent of your games are from the Big Tend and 25 percent of your games should be scheduled wins.

Were fans worrying at that time? Not really. "Ferentz knows what he is doing. In Kirk we Trust." Those were the refrains.

The reality is this year's Iowa class looks similar to that year's Iowa class in ranking compared to the rest of the league and it's also the second lowest rated Iowa class among Big Ten peers since the 2001 class.

Iowa has been and will continue to be a developmental program. To be a successful developmental program you need players on campus to develop, which has been the biggest enemy for Iowa these past few years; attrition.

Take a look at these numbers compiled by HawkeyeGameFilm. He shows you the legend at the top, evaluating Iowa's two-star commitments based on the type of career production they put forth.

0 - Means the player was a Non-Factor on the field
1 - On Two-deep/Special Teams
2 - Part time starter/heavy contributor
3 - Full time starter
4 - Multi-year starter/All Conference Player

^ - On an NFL roster or practice squad
* - Transferred elsewhere or did finish career at Iowa

<strong>2006</strong>
Paul Chaney - 2
Ryan Donahue - 4^
Troy Johnson - 2
Karl Klug - 4^
Derrick Smith - 0
Amari Spievey - 4^
Lance Tillison - 1
Brett Morse - 3

<strong>Hit Ratio '06: 7/8</strong>

<strong>2007</strong>
Mike Daniels - 4^
Zach Furlong - 0
Adam Gettis - 4^
Dezman Moses 1*^
Allen Reisner - 4^
Abe Satterfield - 0

<strong>Hit Ratio '07: 4/6</strong>

<strong>2008</strong>
Steve Bigach - 3
Greg Castillo - 2
Joe Gaglione - 3
J.D. Griggs - 0
Jewel Hampton - 2*^
William Lowe - 1*
Casey MacMillan - 0
Trent Mossbrucker - 0
Shane Prater - 0
Adam Robinson - 3*
Jason Semmes - 0
Jack Swanson - 1

<strong>Hit Ratio '08: 7/12</strong>

<strong>2009
Dominick Alvis - 3
Joshua Brown - 0
Scott Covert - 0
Shane Dibona - 1*
Dakota Getz - 0
Tyler Harrell - 0
Marty Hopkins - 0
Micah Hyde - 4^
Matt Murphy - 0
Stephane Ngoumou - 0
Jake Reisen - 0
Anthony Schiavone 0
Brett Van Sloten - 3

Hit Ratio '09: 3/13</strong>

<strong>2010</strong>
Anthony Hitchens - 4
Kevonte Martin-Manley - 4
Tanner Miller - 3
Johnny Mullings - 0
Austin Vier - 0

<strong>Hit Ratio '10: 3/5</strong>

<strong>2011</strong>
Damon Bullock - ?
Jordan Canzeri - ?
Marcus Collins - ?
Johnny Lowdermilk - ?
Dean Tsopanides - ?

Hit Ratio '11: ?

<strong>2012</strong>
Kevin Buford - ?
Conner Kornbrath - ?
Nate Meier - ?
Reid Sealby - ?
Laron Taylor - ?

Hit Ratio '12: ?

Iowa has had more hits than misses on the two-star front in recent years, save the 2009 class. That class has been decimated by injuries, transfers and overall attrition. By the way that's your senior class next year, folks. Iowa has done a very good job of developing off the radar players into contributors and even all conference types. But the 2009 wipeout really hurt this program in 2012 and will likely do so again in 2013.

This, from HawkeyeGameFilm, who played at the BCS level: "I'd guess no one has been better at creating NFL players from two-star talent than Iowa. The 2008 and 2009 classes appear to be years where the law of averages caught up with them. The way Ferentz runs the Iowa program, they need the gaps filled in by those two-star kids. The good news is they hit on 3 of 5 in 2010 and I think they could do well with the 2011 class, too."

I'll also dive in and do some 'four-star' analysis in the coming days as well, but this data reinforces a few things; the Iowa coaches can spot and identify talent and then develop it. That, and Iowa is always going to have to work smarter and harder than their peers to get over and cannot afford so many 'misses' or such great levels of attrition in the same class as what has befallen the 2009 class (which also happened to the 2005 class).

 

[Casman]

Re: Living and Dying by the Two-Star (with some interesting data from HawkeyeGameFilm

A long-winded way of rationalizing a slacker recruiting effort from a tired and inbred Iowa football program. A few years ago, Iowa and Wisconsin were even in recruiting. Why has Wisconsin surged while Iowa faltered?

It doesn't require complicated charts, Jon, to see why Iowa's football program is in the cellar. The program is tired and needs new blood!

It must be difficult for you to to continue rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Keep up the good work though. Those two-star recruits are going to shine!