Let's mix up some Kool Aid! (data pointing to Iowa success)

C

CP87

Well-Known Member
@tksirius , @Fryowa , @lightning1 , this one is for you. You guys all seem like great and passionate fans, but you project lots of doom and gloom. That is your prerogative, and I won't tell you how to be a fan as long as you tolerate my unrealistic optimism and KF-love.

What I want to do in this thread is provide as many reasons to be positive for next year as possible, see if we can convert you guys to Kool-Aid chuggers. No negativity here, if someone wants that, they can start their own thread. This thread is all flowers and bells and leprechauns and magic frogs with funny little hats.

I will lead with this one (stats from cfbstats.com and foxsports) :
  • Last year Iowa fumbled 21 times (102nd in the nation).
  • Of those 21 fumbles, 12 came from 1st year players (Stanley 7, IKM 1, Easley 1, Hockenson 1, Smith 1, ISM 1).
  • Of the fumbles that hit the ground, the opponent recovered 13 of them (62%).
  • Iowa forced 12 fumbles (36th in nation), and their opponents fumbled 15 times overall (not sure how that discrepancy works, but I am guessing that takes into account things like errant snaps that are not forced by defense). Iowa recovered 5 of those 15 fumbles (109th in the nation for fumbles recovered).
  • So of the 36 total fumbles that hit the ground in Iowa games, Iowa only recovered 13 (36%).
  • While forcing fumbles and preventing fumbles are both skill-related, the act of recovering fumbles has been shown to be mostly random. Therefore, the Hawks were exceptionally unlucky last year in this regard.
  • While being unlucky last year is no guarantee that the Hawks will be lucky this year, my guess is that Iowa will put the ball on the ground much less, and the odds are will recover fumbles closer to a 50% rate.
  • If that leads to an extra +0.5/game in turnover margin, that typically equates to an extra 1.25 wins/season (don't question the dramatic over-extension of the data, just go with it).
So all of you naysayers who have been saying Iowa will just have a typical 8 win season this year, time to up that to 9.25 wins. Boom.

Okay, someone else add some ingredients to this Kool-Aid.
 
The fumble numbers are actually quite interesting. BHGP did a quick study on that right before the 2015 season:

https://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2015/9/2/9243453/iowa-football-fumble-rate-turnovers-statistics

The previous year, Iowa forced just 6 fumbles and recovered just 3 of them, while also losing 15(!) fumbles. According to some quick math, that is a ridiculously unlucky number. So, Iowa was due for a regression to the mean, which they did in 2015 by forcing 10 fumbles and recovering 8 of them while losing 11. Obviously, Iowa's win total that year wasn't solely affected by fumbles, but in one score games (Iowa was 3-4 in one possession games in 2014, 5-1 the following year) they can make a pretty big difference.

So, let's apply that logic to 2017 and 2018. In 2017, Iowa lost 13 fumbles compared to forcing 12 and recovering 5. Not astronomically unlucky like 2014, but enough to swing the final outcome in a few games. Iowa was 3-3 in one possession games last year, with all three losses coming to top 25 teams (fumbles against PSU and MSU particularly come to mind).

If we can drop our fumbles lost number by just 3 or 4 (which should come with experience for said younger guys) it's not unreasonable to think we can squeeze an extra win or two out of this schedule.
 
Nice post. Just know, whichever way the ball bounces (football or hoops anyway), it SEEMS to ALWAYS bounce against us. Just feels that way. I guess I'm just a glass-half-empty guy.
 
Did we not lead the nation in INTs last yr with 18 of em? It wasn't just Jackson getting em all even though he did what he did. I think our D will be really good and will keep us in games. I anticipate the offense being significantly better with Stanley & BF in year 2 together with most of the skill guys back. I think Smith will be a huge upgrade over what Vandeberg did last yr. He was a shell of himself from his previous seasons. That along with ISM and our TEs I see us having mismatches all over the place we can exploit.
 
Hawkfnntn said:
Did we not lead the nation in INTs last yr with 18 of em? It wasn't just Jackson getting em all even though he did what he did.
Click to expand...

Hmmm, now I am worried the number of INTs by the defense is going to go down. How can you do any better than leading the nation in INTs last year?

Oops, looks like I need to find that kool aid fast!
 
AreWeThereYet said:
So CP87, How many laundry detergent capsules have you eaten so far this year?
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six pack
 
My Kool-Aid addition.

Do we have 5 potential 1st round picks in our sophomore and junior classes?

1. Fant (this is easy, I think he goes after this year)

2. AJE (His talent flashed last year. Two more years of quality coaching I have to think he’s a first rounder)

3. Wirfs (got the size and KF and staff have proven ability to develop OL)

4. Jackson (again, size is there, I like his chances certainly as a top 3 round guy)

5. Stanley (he has a long way to go but he has an NFL body and arm at the QB position. Guys like him that play in pro-style systems tend to move up draft boards)
 
guffus said:
Hmmm, now I am worried the number of INTs by the defense is going to go down. How can you do any better than leading the nation in INTs last year?

Oops, looks like I need to find that kool aid fast!
Click to expand...
It'd be asking a lot to do that again for sure. But who's to say we don't get 14 or 15 plus of them? Our Dline providing quick pressure forcing throws before they are ready can only help get a lot of them.
 
National rank for 20+ yard pass plays during the Greg Davis tenure: 110th, 85th, 60th (2014), 51st (2015), 113th, 85th.

KOK's last 2 years (the only years for which I found data): 52nd, 28th

Last year: 85th.

See, we're making progress, we improved from 110th to 85th! With KOK in the house, I see top 50 this year easy.
 
guffus said:
Hmmm, now I am worried the number of INTs by the defense is going to go down. How can you do any better than leading the nation in INTs last year?

Oops, looks like I need to find that kool aid fast!
Click to expand...

The number of interceptions seems to be somewhat related to the number of sacks:

upload_2018-4-20_15-20-30.png

Mostly a 2-pt correlation I know, but the Kool-Aid is sooooo good. Do you think sacks are going down this year? Me neither. Do we have some ball-hawks? I think we do.
 

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CP87 said:
The number of interceptions seems to be somewhat related to the number of sacks:

View attachment 3285

Mostly a 2-pt correlation I know, but the Kool-Aid is sooooo good. Do you think sacks are going down this year? Me neither. Do we have some ball-hawks? I think we do.
Click to expand...
I think that one is just self explanatory as well. More pressure = a more nervous, hurried QB = more bad throws = more picks.

While I do think the secondary will take a step back, what should be a good pass rush will help hide some of their deficiencies.
 
21 is a lot, particularly for Iowa. the concerning thing that jumps out at me is that our qb had 1/3 of them. that tells me our pass pro was not good and our qb was getting smashed, or he has fumble-itis. either, that needs to be fixed asap.
 
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