Let's go back in time...

W

WindsorHawk

Well-Known Member
I have a question about the basketball program...curious what people think. Set aside any feelings about Fran's demeanor, coaching style, etc. Now go back in time to March of 2010 when Lickliter was fired. The following results are guaranteed and the style of play is going to be uptempo. Should we hire this coach?

1 - Poor record but competitive...beat #6 Purdue in last game and lose by 5 to MSU in BTT
2 - NIT...1-1
3 - NIT...Lose in the championship game
4 - NCAA...Lose a First 4 game in OT (to a team that makes the Sweet 16)
5 - NCAA...1-1 (neither game is an upset)
6 - NCAA...1-1 (neither game is an upset)
7 - Unknown...A young team with potential for the next 3 or 4 years and a top 100 commit in each of the next 3 recruiting classes

I would have said hire the guy.

Edit - And it doesn't have to be Fran for me. It could have been any coach if this is where the program is going into year 7.
 
It looks like a team that has peaked and is about to go down the other side of the parabola.
 
Fran was a good hire. The question is how far he can take us. So my answer is "yes", make the hire.

Frankly, I'm less and less concerned about tempo & style of play, and more with results. For as much grief as Wisconsin gets for their style of play, all they do is win. I'd take that in a heartbeat.

I'd have been happy with Lickball if the W's had been there.
 
Stanzi said:
It looks like a team that has peaked and is about to go down the other side of the parabola.
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We have quite a few high ranked recruits coming in. What makes you think the program is going the wrong way? All the seniors that everyone thinks sucks graduating?
 
I'm hiring that coach. And, given the year-to-year improvement most years (some of which was unexpected), I'm giving him another couple years.

If the team has truly "peaked," and starts trending the wrong way, I'd be prepared to look in another direction.

At that time, I had damned well better have a feel for who is out there to hire, and be prepared to pay ... since I've been burned by "mid-major flavor of the week" coaches too many times.

Fran was undoubtedly the right guy to resurrect this program (IMO); I'd give him a couple years to gauge where he can take it from here.
 
Stanzi said:
It looks like a team that has peaked and is about to go down the other side of the parabola.
Click to expand...

We ran off another coach as we were on our way down the other side of a parabola because we lost our focus, so we hired someone else because he goes right through the parabola's focus.

latus-rectum.gif
 
meaning said:
I'm hiring that coach. And, given the year-to-year improvement most years (some of which was unexpected), I'm giving him another couple years.

If the team has truly "peaked," and starts trending the wrong way, I'd be prepared to look in another direction.

At that time, I had damned well better have a feel for who is out there to hire, and be prepared to pay ... since I've been burned by "mid-major flavor of the week" coaches too many times.

Fran was undoubtedly the right guy to resurrect this program (IMO); I'd give him a couple years to gauge where he can take it from here.
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Absolutely. And maybe an even bigger question is, how much is "good enough"?

If we range from NIT to 2nd round NCAA losses, and can't make the Sweet 16 or better.. What do you do? It would be the Mr. Davis situation all over again.

Personally, I think I've learned my lesson (as a fan) and say we should keep a guy who's getting us to the dance most of the team. Only way I'd make a move is if there's a can't-miss opportunity available and you pull the trigger, but that doesn't seem likely.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
Fran was a good hire. The question is how far he can take us. So my answer is "yes", make the hire.

Frankly, I'm less and less concerned about tempo & style of play, and more with results. For as much grief as Wisconsin gets for their style of play, all they do is win. I'd take that in a heartbeat.

I'd have been happy with Lickball if the W's had been there.
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It's pointless to compare winning with a slow style of play and losing with a fast style. That answer is easy. The question is, if all other things were equal, would you rather take the chance on a guy who plays a fast pace or a guy who plays a slow pace? If your answer is to flip a coin because it makes no difference to you, then you truly don't care about style of play.
 
PCHawk said:
It's pointless to compare winning with a slow style of play and losing with a fast style. That answer is easy. The question is, if all other things were equal, would you rather take the chance on a guy who plays a fast pace or a guy who plays a slow pace? If your answer is to flip a coin because it makes no difference to you, then you truly don't care about style of play.
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If we don't know the results in advance (it doesn't work that way), then sure, I'd rather be up-tempo.

Overall, I'd say more recruits would rather play up-tempo, so there's that, too.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
Absolutely. And maybe an even bigger question is, how much is "good enough"?

If we range from NIT to 2nd round NCAA losses, and can't make the Sweet 16 or better.. What do you do? It would be the Mr. Davis situation all over again.

Personally, I think I've learned my lesson (as a fan) and say we should keep a guy who's getting us to the dance most of the team. Only way I'd make a move is if there's a can't-miss opportunity available and you pull the trigger, but that doesn't seem likely.
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If that is truly where we are going to stay at with Fran, what you do is you live with what you got for at least a few more years. 7 or 8 years in a row of mostly making the tournament makes for a good looking job opportunity for someone new.

Programs like Iowa have no choice but to live with good until it's time for a coaching change. Wisconsin didn't become Wisconsin by pushing good coaches out the door until they found a great one. The time came where it made sense to look for a new coach and they hit the jackpot. If Ryan had only made the program good instead of great, he would still have been there until he decided to leave.

With Davis we lived with good until it was time. It was time because his recruiting was getting lazier and lazier and the next "can't miss" coach fell into our lap because we were an extremely attractive job at the time. Once our program is back on the stable ground it was back then, I'm all for taking another calculated risk trying to get to the next level before Fran pulls us down a level. That's at least a few years away tho.
 
99topdawg said:
We ran off another coach as we were on our way down the other side of a parabola because we lost our focus, so we hired someone else because he goes right through the parabola's focus.

latus-rectum.gif
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I'm not good at math or science or whatever but if that says Steve Alford is a rectum, I agree.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
If we don't know the results in advance (it doesn't work that way), then sure, I'd rather be up-tempo.

Overall, I'd say more recruits would rather play up-tempo, so there's that, too.
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I'm not really sure what you mean when you say it doesn't work that way. You don't know what a coaches results are going to be when you hire him. So it seems to me it does work that way.
 
I think it's ok to be frustrated or criticize Fran for the late season meltdowns 2 out of the last 3 years. He needs to try to figure it out. But he has more than earned the right to have a few more seasons to figure it out. As many have pointed out, he has taken us from basketball hell to the NCAA tournament. Everyone wants to win and make the Sweet 16, and Fran has shown that the program is improving. Yes I like many others was ready to jump off the cliff after Illinois, and was furious with Fran, but after time passes and reason creeps in, you have to say that Fran has brought the program back to respectability. Can he take it a step further? I hope so, and we will find out. So for all the Fran haters, save your breath, he's not going anywhere nor does he deserve to be fired.
 
PCHawk said:
If that is truly where we are going to stay at with Fran, what you do is you live with what you got for at least a few more years. 7 or 8 years in a row of mostly making the tournament makes for a good looking job opportunity for someone new.

Programs like Iowa have no choice but to live with good until it's time for a coaching change. Wisconsin didn't become Wisconsin by pushing good coaches out the door until they found a great one. The time came where it made sense to look for a new coach and they hit the jackpot. If Ryan had only made the program good instead of great, he would still have been there until he decided to leave.

With Davis we lived with good until it was time. It was time because his recruiting was getting lazier and lazier and the next "can't miss" coach fell into our lap because we were an extremely attractive job at the time. Once our program is back on the stable ground it was back then, I'm all for taking another calculated risk trying to get to the next level before Fran pulls us down a level. That's at least a few years away tho.
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Agreed.

By "can't miss" hire, I was thinking of someone more proven in a major conference. A guy like Alford, who at the time had never coached above the MVC level, was never "can't miss" in my mind.

Maybe if there's a coach that happens to have Iowa ties (can't think of one outside of Bruce Pearl, and he's got some baggage now).. Or if there's a former proven college coach who gets canned from an NBA gig and is suddenly available.. Or, if Iowa's AD is willing to pony up the cash to lure someone good. Seems we always go for the under the radar hire, though, so this whole conversation may be moot point. This is all premature, anyway.

Otherwise, schools like Iowa typically have to go the mid-major route.
 
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