Latest Jeff Sagarin Ratings..WTH?

O

Omaherky

Well-Known Member
He has a 6-0 Iowa at #26 behind a 3 loss Tenn. team, REALLY?

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

College Football 2015 through games of October 10 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.76] [ 2.76] [ 2.76] [ 2.76]
1 Alabama A = 94.33 5 1 0 75.30( 9) 0 1 0 | 2 1 0 | 93.84 2 | 94.64 1 | 95.58 1
2 Baylor A = 94.06 5 0 0 57.83( 124) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 94.33 1 | 94.01 2 | 93.55 3
3 Michigan A = 91.40 5 1 0 71.80( 28) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 93.28 3 | 89.40 5 | 88.13 10
4 TCU A = 89.99 6 0 0 69.03( 46) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 88.69 6 | 92.21 3 | 93.63 2
5 Clemson A = 89.01 5 0 0 73.17( 16) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 88.56 7 | 90.48 4 | 90.16 5
6 Southern California A = 88.64 3 2 0 72.09( 25) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 89.88 4 | 86.51 15 | 86.33 16
7 Stanford A = 88.36 4 1 0 74.35( 13) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 | 88.05 8 | 88.85 7 | 89.15 8
8 Utah A = 87.64 5 0 0 74.91( 11) 1 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 87.76 10 | 88.58 8 | 87.43 13
9 Florida A = 87.51 6 0 0 72.89( 21) 1 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 86.68 12 | 89.18 6 | 89.65 7
10 Mississippi A = 87.45 5 1 0 61.54( 104) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 87.77 9 | 87.22 13 | 86.81 15
College Football 2015 through games of October 10 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.76] [ 2.76] [ 2.76] [ 2.76]
11 Boise State A = 87.22 5 1 0 65.05( 78) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 89.14 5 | 85.22 18 | 83.82 21
12 Notre Dame A = 87.06 5 1 0 72.24( 23) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 86.85 11 | 87.52 12 | 87.61 12
13 Texas A&M A = 86.53 5 0 0 69.99( 41) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 85.68 13 | 88.39 10 | 88.73 9
14 Ohio State A = 85.74 6 0 0 63.71( 86) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 84.12 16 | 88.47 9 | 90.39 4
15 Oklahoma A = 84.96 4 1 0 71.00( 35) 0 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 84.49 14 | 85.74 17 | 86.13 17
16 LSU A = 84.79 5 0 0 68.72( 49) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 83.05 22 | 88.00 11 | 89.81 6
17 Florida State A = 84.61 5 0 0 65.19( 76) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 83.41 19 | 86.88 14 | 87.78 11
18 Oklahoma State A = 84.60 6 0 0 68.28( 54) 0 0 0 | 2 0 0 | 83.65 18 | 86.47 16 | 87.05 14
19 Georgia A = 83.64 4 2 0 68.67( 51) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 83.13 21 | 84.21 19 | 84.93 18
20 Washington A = 83.56 3 2 0 77.81( 5) 1 0 0 | 1 2 0 | 84.27 15 | 82.82 23 | 82.15 25
College Football 2015 through games of October 10 Saturday
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.76] [ 2.76] [ 2.76] [ 2.76]
21 UCLA A = 83.55 4 1 0 72.10( 24) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 83.81 17 | 83.34 21 | 83.05 23
22 Wisconsin A = 82.71 4 2 0 65.81( 72) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 82.58 23 | 82.30 25 | 83.08 22
23 California A = 82.26 5 1 0 70.84( 38) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 82.22 25 | 82.83 22 | 82.42 24
24 Tennessee A = 81.89 3 3 0 75.35( 8) 0 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 82.40 24 | 80.83 29 | 80.87 31
25 Kansas State A = 81.80 3 2 0 70.51( 39) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 82.14 26 | 81.14 27 | 81.14 30
26 Iowa A = 81.80 6 0 0 69.48( 44) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 | 80.99 30 | 83.72 20 | 83.85 20
27 West Virginia A = 81.78 3 2 0 68.89( 47) 0 0 0 | 0 2 0 | 83.22 20 | 79.67 34 | 79.04 36
28 Duke A = 81.04 5 1 0 62.97( 91) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 82.06 27 | 79.89 32 | 79.05 34
29 Northwestern A = 80.70 5 1 0 73.17( 17) 1 1 0 | 2 1 0 | 80.43 32 | 82.45 24 | 81.38 29
30 Mississippi State A = 80.51 4 2 0 68.31( 53) 0 0 0 | 0 2 0 | 79.95 34 | 80.97 28 | 81.91 27
 
well, based on how things went in the taxslayer bowl last year, he may be on to something there
 
I am not a analytics/metrics guy so I am the last person on the planet that needs to be in this thread. That being said it is a mathematical formula not an opinion. You got have issue with formula not the ranking.


Bleep......I do not know if it is a formula or an equation.
 
Iowa is a decent team. Not top 10, not top 15. I don't care if they go 12-0. I'm not seeing top 15 performance out there.
 
It's too early to worry about computer rankings, they don't have enough information to be accurate at this point in the season.
 
I don't really much care, only halfway thru a season, where we rank in comparison to other teams we haven't played.

Where I do have a point of contention, though, is ranking a 2 loss Wisconsin team, who we beat ON THE ROAD, ahead of us. Formula, equation, or whatever the heck it is needs to be fixed because that's just plain dumb.
 
SpiderRico said:
I don't really much care, only halfway thru a season, where we rank in comparison to other teams we haven't played.

Where I do have a point of contention, though, is ranking a 2 loss Wisconsin team, who we beat ON THE ROAD, ahead of us. Formula, equation, or whatever the heck it is needs to be fixed because that's just plain dumb.
Click to expand...

Wisconsin being ranked ahead of Iowa in the Sagarin ratings doesn't prove the ratings are wrong. It takes into account who you played, as well as the margin of victory and defeat. And really, there is very little difference between the 21st and 26th team. Wisconsin benefits from having Alabama on the schedule, as well as 3 blowout victories in the non-conference. They also piled up a road win against Nebraska (currently 51st). It also doesn't help that North Texas and Iowa State are in free fall. North Texas is the worst FBS team in the country and Iowa State is now in the 70s due to getting whacked by TTech.

Iowa (if it beats Northwestern this week) will get a bump from beating a Top 40 team on the road.
 
DodgerHawki said:
Wisconsin being ranked ahead of Iowa in the Sagarin ratings doesn't prove the ratings are wrong. It takes into account who you played, as well as the margin of victory and defeat. And really, there is very little difference between the 21st and 26th team. Wisconsin benefits from having Alabama on the schedule, as well as 3 blowout victories in the non-conference. They also piled up a road win against Nebraska (currently 51st). It also doesn't help that North Texas and Iowa State are in free fall. North Texas is the worst FBS team in the country and Iowa State is now in the 70s due to getting whacked by TTech.

Iowa (if it beats Northwestern this week) will get a bump from beating a Top 40 team on the road.
Click to expand...

I'm fully aware of all of that, but once again, when you play a team head-to-head and beat them (at their place, no less) and still are ranked behind them AND have a better record.....something needs to be fixed there.
 
Truly...who gives a rat's pink @$$ about Jeff Sangria's computer rating?

Here's a formula:

Step onto field.

Beat opponent.

Step off of field.

Repeat as necessary.
 
You guys are misusing the information. The formula is very clearly laid out on their site.

This is really used to predict future games. Home, add three points. This system predicts Iowa would lose to both Tenn and Wisky on the road/neutral site, but beat both at home. That seems about right to me. I wouldnt want to see Iowa play at Camp Randle again.
 
Mrke1 said:
You guys are misusing the information. The formula is very clearly laid out on their site.

This is really used to predict future games. Home, add three points. This system predicts Iowa would lose to both Tenn and Wisky on the road/neutral site, but beat both at home. That seems about right to me. I wouldnt want to see Iowa play at Camp Randle again.
Click to expand...

No.
 
SpiderRico said:
I'm fully aware of all of that, but once again, when you play a team head-to-head and beat them (at their place, no less) and still are ranked behind them AND have a better record.....something needs to be fixed there.
Click to expand...

That can be a tricky stance to take, however. In 2002, Iowa finished the regular season 11-1 and ranked #3 in the Coaches Poll. They lost at home to the Cyclones, who though they started out the year great (6-1 with their one loss being a controversial one to Florida State, climbed as high as #9 in AP poll), finished the regular season 7-5 and un-ranked. Should Iowa State have been higher at the end of the year because they beat Iowa at their place?

These are difficult but important questions. As long as only a handful of teams are allowed to compete for the national championship, and those handful are selected subjectively, these debates will rage on. Once the playoff field eventually expands to 16 teams or more, they will matter much less.
 
Happy to see some debate about this. It's what we all will be crying about later in the year if the Hawks finish strong.
 
I love it when Iowa is ranked. It helps recruiting. Its a compliment to the kids who are on the team. That said, I have absolutely no confidence in the AP, the Coaches, or Sagarin. I have a lot of confidence in looking at our record at the end of the year. That does matter.
 
Mrke1 said:
You guys are misusing the information. The formula is very clearly laid out on their site.

This is really used to predict future games. Home, add three points. This system predicts Iowa would lose to both Tenn and Wisky on the road/neutral site, but beat both at home. That seems about right to me. I wouldnt want to see Iowa play at Camp Randle again.
Click to expand...


There's a lot of bias in his rankings. Why is TCU ranked so much higher than Iowa? Their schedule isn't tougher, and they've won half their games by less than a TD, but they are ranked #4? Bias. Baylor has won by big margins, but has only played the garbage pail kids. Sagarin isn't really a computer ranking. It's full of his bias for starting with poll numbers. It's the 'secret sauce' he refers to in his non-transparent system.
 
CP87 said:
That can be a tricky stance to take, however. In 2002, Iowa finished the regular season 11-1 and ranked #3 in the Coaches Poll. They lost at home to the Cyclones, who though they started out the year great (6-1 with their one loss being a controversial one to Florida State, climbed as high as #9 in AP poll), finished the regular season 7-5 and un-ranked. Should Iowa State have been higher at the end of the year because they beat Iowa at their place?

These are difficult but important questions. As long as only a handful of teams are allowed to compete for the national championship, and those handful are selected subjectively, these debates will rage on. Once the playoff field eventually expands to 16 teams or more, they will matter much less.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind, I also said "better record". Had ISU finished that year at or better than 11-1, then they deserved to be ranked ahead of us. We are 6-0, have played an overall tougher schedule than Wisky and beat them in their house. On no planet should they be ranked above us.
 
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