KF says he's coming back

[99topdawg]

I think what it really means is that KF is probably going to have to have a 1998 Fry type season to be moved out the door.

I think KF is very comfortable he can continue to wins 7-9 games per year in the new college football landscape. With those sorts of modest goals, he may not be wrong.

I agree that we can win 7-9 games per year for the foreseeable future, which says a lot about what KF has done.

I don't see '98 happening again. We were down, it was going to happen with what we lost off of that '97 team (Tavian, Dwight, Sherman, 4WR, 3 DB, 5 draft picks, etc). Fry had lost major parts of his staff, had a mediocre (at best) OC, had a very good DC who had cancer along with Fry, who also had cancer. They say Fry was tired, but wanted everything for that Rose Bowl win. It was said that the staff didn't recruit well. They finished 3-8 but played 5 ranked teams out of their 11 games, because you played everyone in the conference. They were 3-8, but 3-3 against unranked teams. I'm not saying it was a good team, but it all snowballed. KF has a great staff, still gets in the same types of recruits he's always gotten, and played is a conference that has enough mediocre teams to give us 7-9 wins per year. If PP, TL and LW stay as coordinators for a few more years (fingers crossed), and we keep coaches like Bell, Hodge, Betts, and Wallace (other fingers crossed), KF can be a figurehead like Paterno and Bowden for several more years.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

I think in many ways, he has earned the right to decide when he wants to go. I don't think KF will overstay his welcome. He loves what he does and truly enjoys working with his guys. I have some optimism for next year. Hoping the portal is good to us and we can pick up a few key needs. I don't think our recruiting was terrible but again with how the NIL and portal work, verbal commitments don't mean much until they are on campus and then after a year, they could be elsewhere anyways with the portal.

I would love to see Iowa have one of those years that we shock the world when the expectations are low. It's definitely rare to see guys go out on a positive note or on top. If next year, he gets the all-time Big Ten wins record and Iowa has a decent year, I would be fine if he wants to go. That being said, what KF has done for this program, I am fine letting him coach until he sees fit.

I think this is a wild overstatement. No one did more for Iowa football than Coach Fry, but he was pushed out. Watch his retirement presser. He did not want to retire, but he did not have the juice anymore. He was not going to be given another season, and rightfully so.

So, my view of KF is that he has earned the benefit of the doubt and he has earned a very respectful and mutual retirement. As long as he keeps pumping out 7-9 win seasons, he can coach himself into the ground.

But, given his advanced age, antiquated style of football, some level of fan apathy, and the fact that programs these days can go in the shitter in a heartbeat, IMHO if KF has a 4 win season at any point moving forward, he needs to be retired whether he wants to come back or not.

No one earns the right to drive into the ground that which they have helped built.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

As I posted only one time this year, during last Saturday's game, college football in today's world passed KF by several years ago. Yet, he seems to have a decent team record yearly.

While watching Iowa consistently try to run between the tackles last Friday was boring and frustrating as usual, the Hawks still managed to win the game. Thanks defense and Kaleb Johnson for a run after a catch no one else on the team could do.

Once he does leave, the Hawks may go down for a bit, but with a caveat.

To use a baseball reference, If Beth Goetz is as good as she appears to be, she will hit it out of the park with a new hire or at least hit one to the gap for a triple.

Barta, no chance with that fool making a good FB head coaching hire, so happy he's out.

Until KF is gone, Iowa will be a boring and frustrating team to watch, but it is what it is.

Beth Goetz has proven herself to be an adept administrator and I think we are all happy with the job she has done so far in running the athletic program more sensibly than her predecessor. That said, what has she done that would lead you to believe she is an expert FB coach hirer? First, as Fry noted, she won't be making this decision on her own and there will be a lot of hands in KF's replacement. But, she does not come from a football background, so the notion that she can predict who will be a success at Iowa is wishful thinking. Lots of ADs with real football backgrounds have picked broke back horses. I think Beth will do her due diligence and pick the best candidate for the job, but whether that person succeeds or not is slightly more favorable than flipping a coin.

 

[Fryowa]

Are you saying she's not a multi-million dollar donor?

Let's just say it's not called the "Beth Goetz Family Club" in the north end zone, KF isn't the "Goetz Family Head Coach," and Jason Manson isn't the "Beth and Cody Goetz Director of Player Development" for a reason.

 

[InGoodCo]

The longer Iowa keeps it's current staff in place (and HC), the longer they will remain relevant in the sport, producing NFL players and being an attractive landing place for opportunity to play in one of the top 2 conferences in the sport for a staff that has a proven track record of putting guys into the NFL.

I will never understand why fans can't wait to get rid of proven winners who know what it takes to make Iowa a great program. Iowa is a football factory, the longer we can keep that humming, the better for all of us "fans"...

I just like winning. I'm going to enjoy the winning and stuff while we still are.

 

[Fryowa]

The longer Iowa keeps it's current staff in place (and HC), the longer they will remain relevant in the sport, producing NFL players and being an attractive landing place for opportunity to play in one of the top 2 conferences in the sport for a staff that has a proven track record of putting guys into the NFL.

I will never understand why fans can't wait to get rid of proven winners who know what it takes to make Iowa a great program. Iowa is a football factory, the longer we can keep that humming, the better for all of us "fans"...

I just like winning. I'm going to enjoy the winning and stuff while we still are.

Ding ding ding ding ding....

 

[Hawkfnntn]

I think in many ways, he has earned the right to decide when he wants to go. I don't think KF will overstay his welcome. He loves what he does and truly enjoys working with his guys. I have some optimism for next year. Hoping the portal is good to us and we can pick up a few key needs. I don't think our recruiting was terrible but again with how the NIL and portal work, verbal commitments don't mean much until they are on campus and then after a year, they could be elsewhere anyways with the portal.

I would love to see Iowa have one of those years that we shock the world when the expectations are low. It's definitely rare to see guys go out on a positive note or on top. If next year, he gets the all-time Big Ten wins record and Iowa has a decent year, I would be fine if he wants to go. That being said, what KF has done for this program, I am fine letting him coach until he sees fit.

I wish I fully believed that. However he let his kid be OC for 7 yrs and clearly wasn't ever going to fire him no matter how bad he was. I hope we don't have to find that out with a 4 or 5 win season. I really don't. It's just that the man has already shown how stubborn he can be. I'd much rather he go out on a 9 plus win on his terms. Those hollywood endings don't just happen all the time though. Is anyone on the staff anything other then a 'Yes man' and would shoot him straight on things? I'm not so sure about that either. I worry about how this might go down. Not that anyone has any control besides the folks holding the purse strings.

 

[Grady]

I agree that we can win 7-9 games per year for the foreseeable future, which says a lot about what KF has done.

I don't see '98 happening again. We were down, it was going to happen with what we lost off of that '97 team (Tavian, Dwight, Sherman, 4WR, 3 DB, 5 draft picks, etc). Fry had lost major parts of his staff, had a mediocre (at best) OC, had a very good DC who had cancer along with Fry, who also had cancer. They say Fry was tired, but wanted everything for that Rose Bowl win. It was said that the staff didn't recruit well. They finished 3-8 but played 5 ranked teams out of their 11 games, because you played everyone in the conference. They were 3-8, but 3-3 against unranked teams. I'm not saying it was a good team, but it all snowballed. KF has a great staff, still gets in the same types of recruits he's always gotten, and played is a conference that has enough mediocre teams to give us 7-9 wins per year. If PP, TL and LW stay as coordinators for a few more years (fingers crossed), and we keep coaches like Bell, Hodge, Betts, and Wallace (other fingers crossed), KF can be a figurehead like Paterno and Bowden for several more years.

"...7-9 wins per year."
Have you looked at the 2025 schedule? If the Hawks get to 7 wins next year it will be a minor miracle, given the losses from this year's team. We get 5 BTen home games, but they include Oregon, Penn St., and Indiana. Our easiest BTen games may be on the road at Rutgers and at Wisconsin. We easily could go 2-7 or 3-6 next year in the BTen.

 

[Fryowa]

"...7-9 wins per year."
Have you looked at the 2025 schedule? If the Hawks get to 7 wins next year it will be a minor miracle, given the losses from this year's team. We get 5 BTen home games, but they include Oregon, Penn St., and Indiana. Our easiest BTen games may be on the road at Rutgers and at Wisconsin. We easily could go 2-7 or 3-6 next year in the BTen.

Hol' up...

Indiana got their asses kicked by the only team they played that even remotely had a faint pulse. I can't remember a P4 schedule that soft. Don't get me wrong, I'm enjoying seeing what's going on there, but even the Hawks caught lightning in a bottle with a soft schedule in '15.

 

[Grady]

I wish I fully believed that. However he let his kid be OC for 7 yrs and clearly wasn't ever going to fire him no matter how bad he was. I hope we don't have to find that out with a 4 or 5 win season. I really don't. It's just that the man has already shown how stubborn he can be. I'd much rather he go out on a 9 plus win on his terms. Those hollywood endings don't just happen all the time though. Is anyone on the staff anything other then a 'Yes man' and would shoot him straight on things? I'm not so sure about that either. I worry about how this might go down. Not that anyone has any control besides the folks holding the purse strings.

With an 18-team conference, going forward team records for all but the top 3 programs in the BTen (Ohio St. Oregon, Penn St.) are going to be increasingly determined by who they play each year, i.e. scheduling. Iowa is the perfect example: this year Iowa was practically guaranteed 8 wins because they didn't play Oregon, Penn St., Indiana, or Michigan. If this year's team played next year's schedule, they'd be lucky to win 5 games, simply because of scheduling.

 

[Grady]

Hol' up...

Indiana got their asses kicked by the only team they played that even remotely had a faint pulse. I can't remember a P4 schedule that soft. Don't get me wrong, I'm enjoying seeing what's going on there, but even the Hawks caught lightning in a bottle with a soft schedule in '15.

View attachment 11192

Well, yes.
Of course they did go on the road and beat by 30 pts two teams which Iowa lost to in the same location.

 

[Grady]

Hol' up...

Indiana got their asses kicked by the only team they played that even remotely had a faint pulse. I can't remember a P4 schedule that soft. Don't get me wrong, I'm enjoying seeing what's going on there, but even the Hawks caught lightning in a bottle with a soft schedule in '15.

View attachment 11192

If you're looking for a P4 schedule as soft as Indiana's, look at Rutgers' this season.

 

[Fryowa]

Well, yes.
Of course they did go on the road and beat by 30 pts two teams which Iowa lost to in the same location.

Using Iowa as a benchmark ain't exactly rigorous...

 

[Fryowa]

If you're looking for a P4 schedule as soft as Indiana's, look at Rutgers' this season.

Indiana's SOS was 73rd in D1.

The only two teams with an easier schedule in the Sagarin top 50 were Memphis and Tulane.

Also, Rutgers' SOS was 59. Not even close to as easy as Indiana's no matter what subjective criteria you're using.

 

[Grady]

Indiana's SOS was 73rd in D1.

The only two teams with an easier schedule in the Sagarin top 50 were Memphis and Tulane.

Also, Rutgers' SOS was 59. Not even close to as easy as Indiana's no matter what subjective criteria you're using.

Rutger's SOS was probably increased by playing Virginia Tech in the non-con, but here are the two teams' comparable BTen schedules. You tell me which schedule you'd prefer to play:

INDIANA: Ohio St., Michigan, Washington, Maryland, UCLA, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue.

RUTGERS: Washington, USC, UCLA, Maryland, Michigan St., Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois.

I'd take Rutgers' schedule in a minute. And so would every other coach in the BTen, if they could. No Ohio St., Oregon, or Penn St. (and neither team played Iowa). The best team Rutgers faced all year was....wait for it....Illinois.

 

[99topdawg]

"...7-9 wins per year."
Have you looked at the 2025 schedule? If the Hawks get to 7 wins next year it will be a minor miracle, given the losses from this year's team. We get 5 BTen home games, but they include Oregon, Penn St., and Indiana. Our easiest BTen games may be on the road at Rutgers and at Wisconsin. We easily could go 2-7 or 3-6 next year in the BTen.

Yep. We lose a lot and have a tougher schedule. We still have quite at least 7 games we should win or be ~50/50 with.

I think we have a shot at 7 of these: Albany, UMass, MSU, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, ISU, USC, Indiana. May not reach 7, but there's a shot.

Then there's these 2, PSU, Oregon...

 

[Fryowa]

Rutger's SOS was probably increased by playing Virginia Tech in the non-con, but here are the two teams' comparable BTen schedules. You tell me which schedule you'd prefer to play:

INDIANA: Ohio St., Michigan, Washington, Maryland, UCLA, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue.

RUTGERS: Washington, USC, UCLA, Maryland, Michigan St., Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois.

I'd take Rutgers' schedule in a minute. And so would every other coach in the BTen, if they could. No Ohio St., Oregon, or Penn St. (and neither team played Iowa). The best team Rutgers faced all year was....wait for it....Illinois.

Preseason I'd take Rutgers, but at that point it's a guess. At the end of the year the numbers don't lie. Go look at any of the SOS ratings out there and Rutgers' schedule is rated way tougher.

 

[Fryowa]

Yep. We lose a lot and have a tougher schedule. We still have quite at least 7 games we should win or be ~50/50 with.

I think we have a shot at 7 of these: Albany, UMass, MSU, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, ISU, USC, Indiana. May not reach 7, but there's a shot.

Then there's these 2SU, Oregon...

I'm not scared of Indiana for reasons listed above. They ain't catching that lightning in a bottle twice in a row.

 

[guffus]

Iowa 2025 football schedule

Non conference
Albany, UMass, @iowa St

Big ten home games
Ind, Mich St, Minn, Oregon, Penn St

Big Ten Road games
@Neb, @Rut, @USC, @Wisc

Yeah, 2025 could be rough. Looks like 5-7 to me.

 

[dagdaj]

Again, I get the "settling for being a bridesmaid" thing. Usually it's not even bridesmaid. Several times we've been just the guestbook attendant. But we've rarely been just a guest. And haven't missed out on an invite since the first two seasons.

20% of Kirk Ferentz teams have finished the season inside the top 10.
1 at 5th
1 at 7th
3 at 8th
Which is what I told my son his first year in 2022 when they were....not good.
Go there for four years and you will get a taste. I was right. As long as you don't hit a stretch of that last 20% percent. Besides, nobody graduates in 4 years anymore, right? So, you're almost guaranteed a top 10 finish in your 5th year.

OSU: don't care
Michigan: 28%
PSU: 32%
Wisconsin: 20%
Nebraska: 12% (You have to go back to when the Liner was still carding Kirk Ferentz during his first 3 seasons)
Michigan State: 20%
Illinois: 0%
Indiana: 4% (we'll give them this year. Currently at 9. Bowls mean nothing)
Purdon't: 0%
Northwestern: 4% (if I count a 10 spot even though I said "inside" the top 10)
Not bothering with Maryland etc.

ISU: 3%
Missouri: 12%
Kansas: 4%
Kansas St.: 4%
Auburn: 20%
LSU: 40%
Alabama: 64%
Notre Dame: 20%*
Miami: 20%*
FSU: 24%
Texas: 36%
Oklahoma: 44%

* reduced percentage calculated following post-season NCAA adjustments for violations

Again, I get the "also-ran" argument . Under Kirk, Iowa has reached the top 3 twice (and wound up in the top 10 that season)
Also, reached #2 (and barely made it inside the top 25 that season). But wow, was that ever a great week after the PSU game. That's when my kid did his prospective student visit. The campus was ELECTRIC. There's a lot of teams on that list that can't boast this. And about 130 more that aren't on the list.

If you were born anywhere after say...1950 and pinned fandom or love of the Hawks to being the best team at the end of the season (and/or anointed 'Champion') you've been doing yourself no favors. You were 10 when Evashevski was done and college football started to grow up, and Iowa was no longer playing the likes of Washington University.

I'm not "settling". I'm just realistic that the only way it happens for Iowa (or all but a dozen teams....half dozen in any given year) is for lightning to strike and stars to align. And until then, I'll settle for that week after PSU. And I can tolerate an 8-4, especially when it includes punking Nerdbraska. And, as long as Kirk doesn't get sidetracked by his totally understandable love and faith in his offspring....give me a few years and the top 10 will be in sight. And maybe, just maybe, that's the year the twains converge and we achieve eternal bliss.

At this point, yes...there's challenges with the sea change in college football. But, so far Kirk has embraced them. Didn't always work out (McNamara). Then again, Sullivan still has potential. Gill certainly is pleasing. Heck, no telling what happens last year without Meeder. Definitely landmines ahead for smaller schools from smaller states. Even if he leaves the cupboard bare...this new era completely changes the concept of the bare cupboard. If Ferentz holds serve for a few more years, I'm going to be awfully glad we had him...and not a series of trainwrecks, unmemorable seasons, with a few brief bright spots like so many other teams.