JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
The Iowa basketball team is off to a 9-2 start, challenging for a Top 40 RPI and Hawkeye fans are paying attention to this club more than any in the last six or seven years.
There is good reason; there is quite a bit of talent on this team and more on the way. If Iowa basketball were a stock, there would be a lot of buy orders right about now.
How much talent is there?
To win games, you need to score more than your opponent. You can do that winning 43-36 like Iowa did against a ranked Michigan State team early in the Todd Lickliter era, or you can beat a team by scoring 80 points. If you are a good team, it likely means you have players on your team who can put the ball in the basket with regularity.
In the history of Iowa basketball there have been 40 players who have scored at least 1,000 points in their career, led by Roy Marble's 2,116 on down to George Peeples 1,025. If you were a Peeples fan, would you have been thought of as a peep? But I digress...
Just because you score 1,000 points doesn't make you an Iowa great. Glen Worley is 35th on the list with 1,060 points, six more than Reggie Evans and Carl Cain scored in their days as Hawkeyes. But Cain averaged more than 12.9 points in each of his three years (freshmen were not eligible for varsity competition until the mid 1970's) and Evans played just two years where Worley played four.
However, if you get to 1,000 points it certainly means you have talent and you can't win without a collection of talented players.
Which brings us back to the question; how much talent is there on this Iowa basketball roster? How much is there compared to good Iowa teams from the past?
1982 Hawkeyes
This group leads the list with six players on the 1981-1982 roster who would be 1,000 point scorers at Iowa. Greg Stokes (#2 all time) and Micheal Payne were freshmen on this team, joined by fellow 1,000 point scorers Kevin Boyle, Bob Hansen, Kenny Arnold and Steve Carfino. This team made the NCAA tournament, and Boyle, Hansen and Arnold were all a part of Iowa's 1979-1980 team who went to the final four. Those three players made it to the Big Dance in each of their four years at Iowa and in each of those years the NCAA tourney field was just 48 teams; it didn't expand to 64 until 1985.
Those were good, solid teams, back when 20 wins in a season meant something because teams played less than 30 regular season games and there were not many post season conference tournaments (I think the ACC was the only major league to have one at the time).
1996 Hawkeyes
This one surprised me, too. The 1995-1996 Hawkeyes began the year ranked 8th in nation (AP Poll) and got off to an 11-1 start (lone loss to Duke, 88-81) and were ranked 10th in the nation when Big Ten play began, riding a nine game winning streak. Five players on this roster would score at least 1,000 points in their careers: Jess Settles (15.6ppg/10.2rpg that year), Andre Woolridge (14.0ppg/5.75asg), Chris Kingsbury (16.8ppg), Kenyon Murray and Ryan Bowen. Bowen was a freshmen that season. Iowa went 11-7 in Big Ten play. Their comeback against George Washington in the first round of the NCAA tournament was an all timer. Iowa trailed 73-56 with 8:21 to play and would outscore GW 25-6 the rest of the way to win. Iowa finished that year ranked 21st in the nation. Iowa's preseason #8 ranking is just one of three times since the 1970's where Iowa was ranked 8th or better to start a yaer (they were 7th in 1984-84 finishing unranked and 13-15 which made it one of the most disappointing Iowa seasons, ever and 1988-89 finishing 14th)
2005 Hawkeyes
Jeff Horner, Greg Brunner, Pierre Pierce and Adam Haluska topped 1,000 points. That team was 15-5 at one point, or THE point of that season. That's when Pierre Pierce was kicked off the Iowa basketball team for good. He was Iowa's leading scorer at that time with 17.8/ppg. Iowa would lose five of their next six games without Pierce but still qualified for the NCAA tournament thanks to a late run, winning two in the Big Ten tournament and having Athletic Director Bob Bowlsby as the NCAA's Selection Committee Chairman. They were summarily bounced out of the dance by Cincinnati in the first round.
Horner ranks 13th on Iowa's all time list, Brunner 14 points ahead of him at 12th with Haluska at 8th with 1,578 points in just three Iowa seasons (98 games compared to 127 for Brunner and 123 for Horner). Haluska would average 20.5 points per game his senior year, Steve Alford's last at Iowa, which was the highest per game average for an Iowa player since Roy Marble's 20.5 per game in 1988-1989.
Was the 2005 Iowa team a great team? No. Could they have been a great team had Pierce not been a ______ (fill in the blank, in your head that is)? Possibly, though great is a stretch. They still made it to the NCAA's and the core of that team (Horner and Brunner as seniors and Haluska) would become a great Iowa team one year later, helping Iowa to a #3 seed in the tournament and a Big Ten tournament championship.
1987 Hawkeyes
This is the best Iowa team of my lifetime and it's not even close. They are one of the Top Five Iowa teams ever and I don't believe it's debatable. This team had four 1,000 point scorers on it in BJ Armstrong, Ed Horton, Marble and Jeff Moe. Armstrong, Marble and Horton, arguably the greatest trio from one recruiting class in Iowa history, finished very high on Iowa's all time list. At the time of their graduation, here is how they rated in Iowa's career scoring category:
1. Marble (still #1)
3. Armstrong (still #4)
6. Horton (still #14)
Those three were sophomores during that great 1986-1987 season, with Horton averaging 7.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, Armstrong at 12.4 points and 4.2 assists per game and Marble at 14.9 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. That team also had an amazing 'supporting cast' in transfer Kevin Gamble (11.9/ppg), Brad Lohaus (over 11 per game), Al Lorenzen, Bill Jones and more. it was a great team with great players and scorers. This was Iowa's most talented roster of the last 40 years, at a minimum.
This brings us to the 2012-2013 Iowa roster.
I do not think this team is going to be the 'Apex' for this roster; I think that will come next year when Devyn Marble and Mel Basabe are seniors. Zach McCabe will also be a senior, but I don't think he will make the 1,000 point mark. Here is what this year's roster looks like and how they stack up in light of the 1,000 point barrier, keeping in mind that projections of this nature does not factor in injuries:
Eric May: He is the team's lone senior and has scored 710 points. He will fall short of 1,000.
Devyn Marble: Marble has 746 at this juncture with more than a year and a half remaining in his career. No, I don't think he should make the jump to the NBA next year, not unless he goes off for 20 a game the rest of the way and starts making three's like Matt Gatens did late last year. Marble is averaging 15.1 points per game right now and if he does that the rest of the way this year he will score 300+ more points this year and top the 1,000 point mark as a junior.
Melsahn Basabe: Mel has 712 points right now. It's interesting that he trails Marble by just 34 points as both are juniors. Basabe's per game production is down this year from last year as are his minutes, but he's playing much better this season and with more energy and enthusiasm. I think he tops 1,000 points before all is said and done next season.
Zach McCabe: He has 513 and I don't think he will make it as his minutes per game average is now the lowest of his career and you add in Jared Uthoff and Kyle Meyer next season. He is playing on the most talented Iowa team of his career so he likely doesn't mind the trade off all that much as it's much more fun to win.
Aaron White: He has 537 in less than a year and a half and if he stays healthy he has a shot to break into the Top 10 all time at Iowa in scoring and rebounding.
Josh Oglesby: Has 287 points not yet midway through his sophomore year. He scored as a freshman 223 last year and if he only equalled that total for the next three years he'd be right at 1,000 points. But his average is down .6/ppg this year and he is playing over two fewer minutes per game. He will be close, but minutes will be even more tough to come by as Pat Ingram gets more involved and then you welcome in Peter Jok next year who will certainly eat up some minutes at the two. I would say he doesn't get there but again, it could be real close.
Now it's on to the freshman where things are even more of a crapshoot.
Mike Gesell: He is averaging 9.8ppg as a freshman. If he did just that over a 130 game career, that averages to over 1,200 points.
Adam Woodbury: He is averaging 6.6/ppg right now, which over 130 games is 858 points. I have been impressed with his offensive play this year and believe he will average in double figures next year. If he is at Iowa all four years, he will top 1,000 points.
Anthony Clemmons: He has scored 45 point so far. Could he average 10ppg game over his last three years? Do he and Gesell take away from each other there? While I think he is capable and showing that more and more all of the time, and Gesell will likely play more minutes at the two-guard slot than we might have expected this summer due to Clemmons' emergence, I will say he misses the 1,000 point mark for his career.
When Jared Uthoff becomes eligible next year, he will have just three years to play at Iowa. Given that Aaron White will be ahead of him at his position for two years, I don't think the minutes will be there for him to get to 1,000 points.
So there is a look that is nothing more than entertainment at this point, but should underscore the amount of talent that Iowa has on this roster. It's the deepest Iowa team in a decade at least and the arrow is pointing up.
There is good reason; there is quite a bit of talent on this team and more on the way. If Iowa basketball were a stock, there would be a lot of buy orders right about now.
How much talent is there?
To win games, you need to score more than your opponent. You can do that winning 43-36 like Iowa did against a ranked Michigan State team early in the Todd Lickliter era, or you can beat a team by scoring 80 points. If you are a good team, it likely means you have players on your team who can put the ball in the basket with regularity.
In the history of Iowa basketball there have been 40 players who have scored at least 1,000 points in their career, led by Roy Marble's 2,116 on down to George Peeples 1,025. If you were a Peeples fan, would you have been thought of as a peep? But I digress...
Just because you score 1,000 points doesn't make you an Iowa great. Glen Worley is 35th on the list with 1,060 points, six more than Reggie Evans and Carl Cain scored in their days as Hawkeyes. But Cain averaged more than 12.9 points in each of his three years (freshmen were not eligible for varsity competition until the mid 1970's) and Evans played just two years where Worley played four.
However, if you get to 1,000 points it certainly means you have talent and you can't win without a collection of talented players.
Which brings us back to the question; how much talent is there on this Iowa basketball roster? How much is there compared to good Iowa teams from the past?
1982 Hawkeyes
This group leads the list with six players on the 1981-1982 roster who would be 1,000 point scorers at Iowa. Greg Stokes (#2 all time) and Micheal Payne were freshmen on this team, joined by fellow 1,000 point scorers Kevin Boyle, Bob Hansen, Kenny Arnold and Steve Carfino. This team made the NCAA tournament, and Boyle, Hansen and Arnold were all a part of Iowa's 1979-1980 team who went to the final four. Those three players made it to the Big Dance in each of their four years at Iowa and in each of those years the NCAA tourney field was just 48 teams; it didn't expand to 64 until 1985.
Those were good, solid teams, back when 20 wins in a season meant something because teams played less than 30 regular season games and there were not many post season conference tournaments (I think the ACC was the only major league to have one at the time).
1996 Hawkeyes
This one surprised me, too. The 1995-1996 Hawkeyes began the year ranked 8th in nation (AP Poll) and got off to an 11-1 start (lone loss to Duke, 88-81) and were ranked 10th in the nation when Big Ten play began, riding a nine game winning streak. Five players on this roster would score at least 1,000 points in their careers: Jess Settles (15.6ppg/10.2rpg that year), Andre Woolridge (14.0ppg/5.75asg), Chris Kingsbury (16.8ppg), Kenyon Murray and Ryan Bowen. Bowen was a freshmen that season. Iowa went 11-7 in Big Ten play. Their comeback against George Washington in the first round of the NCAA tournament was an all timer. Iowa trailed 73-56 with 8:21 to play and would outscore GW 25-6 the rest of the way to win. Iowa finished that year ranked 21st in the nation. Iowa's preseason #8 ranking is just one of three times since the 1970's where Iowa was ranked 8th or better to start a yaer (they were 7th in 1984-84 finishing unranked and 13-15 which made it one of the most disappointing Iowa seasons, ever and 1988-89 finishing 14th)
2005 Hawkeyes
Jeff Horner, Greg Brunner, Pierre Pierce and Adam Haluska topped 1,000 points. That team was 15-5 at one point, or THE point of that season. That's when Pierre Pierce was kicked off the Iowa basketball team for good. He was Iowa's leading scorer at that time with 17.8/ppg. Iowa would lose five of their next six games without Pierce but still qualified for the NCAA tournament thanks to a late run, winning two in the Big Ten tournament and having Athletic Director Bob Bowlsby as the NCAA's Selection Committee Chairman. They were summarily bounced out of the dance by Cincinnati in the first round.
Horner ranks 13th on Iowa's all time list, Brunner 14 points ahead of him at 12th with Haluska at 8th with 1,578 points in just three Iowa seasons (98 games compared to 127 for Brunner and 123 for Horner). Haluska would average 20.5 points per game his senior year, Steve Alford's last at Iowa, which was the highest per game average for an Iowa player since Roy Marble's 20.5 per game in 1988-1989.
Was the 2005 Iowa team a great team? No. Could they have been a great team had Pierce not been a ______ (fill in the blank, in your head that is)? Possibly, though great is a stretch. They still made it to the NCAA's and the core of that team (Horner and Brunner as seniors and Haluska) would become a great Iowa team one year later, helping Iowa to a #3 seed in the tournament and a Big Ten tournament championship.
1987 Hawkeyes
This is the best Iowa team of my lifetime and it's not even close. They are one of the Top Five Iowa teams ever and I don't believe it's debatable. This team had four 1,000 point scorers on it in BJ Armstrong, Ed Horton, Marble and Jeff Moe. Armstrong, Marble and Horton, arguably the greatest trio from one recruiting class in Iowa history, finished very high on Iowa's all time list. At the time of their graduation, here is how they rated in Iowa's career scoring category:
1. Marble (still #1)
3. Armstrong (still #4)
6. Horton (still #14)
Those three were sophomores during that great 1986-1987 season, with Horton averaging 7.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, Armstrong at 12.4 points and 4.2 assists per game and Marble at 14.9 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. That team also had an amazing 'supporting cast' in transfer Kevin Gamble (11.9/ppg), Brad Lohaus (over 11 per game), Al Lorenzen, Bill Jones and more. it was a great team with great players and scorers. This was Iowa's most talented roster of the last 40 years, at a minimum.
This brings us to the 2012-2013 Iowa roster.
I do not think this team is going to be the 'Apex' for this roster; I think that will come next year when Devyn Marble and Mel Basabe are seniors. Zach McCabe will also be a senior, but I don't think he will make the 1,000 point mark. Here is what this year's roster looks like and how they stack up in light of the 1,000 point barrier, keeping in mind that projections of this nature does not factor in injuries:
Eric May: He is the team's lone senior and has scored 710 points. He will fall short of 1,000.
Devyn Marble: Marble has 746 at this juncture with more than a year and a half remaining in his career. No, I don't think he should make the jump to the NBA next year, not unless he goes off for 20 a game the rest of the way and starts making three's like Matt Gatens did late last year. Marble is averaging 15.1 points per game right now and if he does that the rest of the way this year he will score 300+ more points this year and top the 1,000 point mark as a junior.
Melsahn Basabe: Mel has 712 points right now. It's interesting that he trails Marble by just 34 points as both are juniors. Basabe's per game production is down this year from last year as are his minutes, but he's playing much better this season and with more energy and enthusiasm. I think he tops 1,000 points before all is said and done next season.
Zach McCabe: He has 513 and I don't think he will make it as his minutes per game average is now the lowest of his career and you add in Jared Uthoff and Kyle Meyer next season. He is playing on the most talented Iowa team of his career so he likely doesn't mind the trade off all that much as it's much more fun to win.
Aaron White: He has 537 in less than a year and a half and if he stays healthy he has a shot to break into the Top 10 all time at Iowa in scoring and rebounding.
Josh Oglesby: Has 287 points not yet midway through his sophomore year. He scored as a freshman 223 last year and if he only equalled that total for the next three years he'd be right at 1,000 points. But his average is down .6/ppg this year and he is playing over two fewer minutes per game. He will be close, but minutes will be even more tough to come by as Pat Ingram gets more involved and then you welcome in Peter Jok next year who will certainly eat up some minutes at the two. I would say he doesn't get there but again, it could be real close.
Now it's on to the freshman where things are even more of a crapshoot.
Mike Gesell: He is averaging 9.8ppg as a freshman. If he did just that over a 130 game career, that averages to over 1,200 points.
Adam Woodbury: He is averaging 6.6/ppg right now, which over 130 games is 858 points. I have been impressed with his offensive play this year and believe he will average in double figures next year. If he is at Iowa all four years, he will top 1,000 points.
Anthony Clemmons: He has scored 45 point so far. Could he average 10ppg game over his last three years? Do he and Gesell take away from each other there? While I think he is capable and showing that more and more all of the time, and Gesell will likely play more minutes at the two-guard slot than we might have expected this summer due to Clemmons' emergence, I will say he misses the 1,000 point mark for his career.
When Jared Uthoff becomes eligible next year, he will have just three years to play at Iowa. Given that Aaron White will be ahead of him at his position for two years, I don't think the minutes will be there for him to get to 1,000 points.
So there is a look that is nothing more than entertainment at this point, but should underscore the amount of talent that Iowa has on this roster. It's the deepest Iowa team in a decade at least and the arrow is pointing up.
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