It's the Offense!!!!

I

iahawk72

Well-Known Member
Let me stipulate that our defense is not particularly good. I get that. I think most reasonable fans would have acknowledged that of the two units (offense and defense) that the defense had the biggest challenge ahead of it based on the personnel lost from last year.

In my mind the unit that has let this team down this season and in the losses in particular is the offense. Like all sports there are seemingly endless stats that one can evaluate to try to explain the results. But at the end of the day there are only two stats that REALLY count: Points For and Points Against. These two stats, in combination, are the only two that can definitively tell you who won and who lost.

It is pretty obvious to me based on the following stats that Iowa's 3 losses (all on the road) can be attributed to the offense's inability to score consistently.

Note: These stats are for games against BCS opponents ONLY.
* - Also note that I evaluated Net Points meaning Iowa's defense gained a net 7 points in the first quarter against NW (didn't allow any points plus scored on an int. returned for a touchdown). That touchdown was netted against Iowa's defensive totals and factored out of Iowa's offensive scoring production. My reasoning here is pretty simple. If you are going to blame the defense for giving up points you have to also credit them for creating them.

First, the stats (Regulation Only):

Iowa Offense Net Points
By Quarter
ISU 7-3-6-8
Pitt 0-3-7-21
PSU 0-3-0-0
NW 3-7-0-24
IU 14-21-3-7
MN 0-7-7-7

By Half
ISU 10-14
Pitt 3-28
PSU 3-0
NW 10-24
IU 35-10
MN 7-14

By Game
ISU 24
Pitt 31
PSU 3
NW 34
IU 45
MN 21

Avg Net Pts by Quarter (Total)
4-7.3-3.8-11.2

Avg Net Pts by Quarter (Home)
5.67-10.3-3.33-17.33

Avg Net Pts by Quarter (Away)
2.33-4.33-4.33-5

Avg Net Pts by Half (Total)
11.3-15

Avg Net Pts by Half (Home)
16-20.67

Avg Net Pts by Half (Away)
6.67-9.33

Total Net Pts by Game (Total)
26.3

Total Net Pts by Game (Home)
36.67

Total Net Pts by Game (Away)
16

The stats that jump out at me here is that Iowa's offense is averaging over 20 points per game less on the road then at home. Granted one of the 3 road games was against PSU which is ranked #4 in the nation in scoring defense but even if you factor that game out, Iowa only averaged 22.5 points against ISU and MN whose average scoring defense ranking is: 101. That is over 14 pts per game fewer against two REALLY bad teams. Certainly Iowa squandered opportunities in both games (2 missed FGs at MN) however even if they had made all of those FGs, they would have still averaged over 8 points fewer per game against two really bad defenses. Neither game should have even come down to a missed FG had the offense shown up.

Now for the defense (Regulation Only)

Iowa Defense Net Points
By Quarter
ISU 0-10-7-7
Pitt 10-0-14-3
PSU 3-3-0-7
NW (7)-7-10-14
IU 7-7-3-7
MN 0-7-3-12

By Half
ISU 10-14
Pitt 10-17
PSU 6-7
NW 0-24
IU 14-10
MN 7-15

By Game
ISU 24
Pitt 27
PSU 13
NW 24
IU 24
MN 22

Avg Net Pts by Quarter (Total)
4.5-5.67-6.17-8.33

Avg Net Pts by Quarter (Home)
5.67-4.67-9-6

Avg Net Pts by Quarter (Away)
1-6.67-3.33-8.67

Avg Net Pts by Half (Total)
7.83-14.5

Avg Net Pts by Half (Home)
10.34-15

Avg Net Pts by Half (Away)
7.67-12

Total Net Pts by Game (Total)
22.33

Total Net Pts by Game (Home)
25

Total Net Pts by Game (Away)
19.67


Now the interesting stat that jumps out at you here is that Iowa's defense, in their 3 road games (all losses) has held opponents to an average of 19.67 pts per game which is 2.67 below Iowa's season average and 5.33 points below what Iowa's opponents average in Kinnick Stadium. Now it should be noted that Iowa's home opponents have an average scoring offense ranking nationally of 66.33 while the road opponents' average rank nationally is 97.33.

The difference however between the offense and the defense is pretty obvious. The defense did what you would expect against bad offensive teams. They held those opponents to fewer points relative to Iowa's average.

Contrast that with Iowa's offense which under-produced against similarly bad defenses.

In 24 quarters of regulation football against BCS opponents, Iowa's offense has scored a total of 158 points or 6.58 points per quarter. (Yes, less than a touchdown per quarter.) Iowa's offense has only score double digit points in 4 of those 24 quarters (4Q-Pitt, 4Q-NW, 1Q,2Q-IU). Iowa's offense has been held scoreless in 6 of those 24 quarters and held to a field goal in 5 quarters. So in 11 of Iowa's 24 quarters of regulation football, they have averaged 1.36 points.

Oh, by the way, those 4 (of 24) highest scoring quarters account for 51% of Iowa's total points scored against BCS opponents.

In 24 quarters of regulation football against BCS opponenets, Iowa's defense has allowed a total of 134 net points or 5.58 points per quarter. They have allowed double digit points in a single quarter 6 times with the most points in a quarter being 14 which they allowed twice and 12 points which they allowed once. They have allowed 3 pts or fewer in 9 of the 24 quarters.

The bottom line as far as I am concerned is this: Many knew and understood that Iowa's success this year, whether it was in the pre-season or after 8 games, was going to be dependent on the offense carrying this team. In my mind in each of Iowa's 3 losses the defense has done enough to give the team a chance to win the game. In those 3 games (as in all 12/13) it was/is critical that the offense step up and produce at or above their season average. In all three the offense failed to do this.

It is not going to get any easier the next 4 weeks for either unit. Up to this point the average scoring defense for Iowa's 6 BCS opponents is: 75.83. The average for the next 4 opponents: 19.25

The average scoring offense for Iowa's first 6 BCS opponents is: 81.83. The average for the next 4 opponents: 47.75

Combined record of 1st 6 BCS opponents: 22-28
Combined record of next 4 opponents: 24-8

Iowa's final record and whether they become bowl eligible is heavily dependent on the offense to put points on the board. Iowa's defense has 'carried' this program in recent years and masked some of the offensive deficiencies. It is time for the offense to step up and do the heavy lifting in the next four games and hopefully five.

iahawk72
 
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Just as a comparison sake, Wisconsin has played 5 games against BCS opponents. In those 20 quarters, they have scored 202 points which averages out to 10.1 points per quarter. They are averaging a touchdown and a field goal PER QUARTER with Purdue on tap this weekend which might only pad those numbers. In 9 of their 20 quarters they have produced double digit points and have only had 2 scoreless quarters. Plus in 17 of those 20 quarters they have scored at least one touchdown with only one quarter where they scored only a FG. 40% of those quarters were against MSU and tOSU and they still have to face the Big Ten's best defense in Penn State.

Just consider what one more point per quarter would mean over 6 games. That is 24 points which doesn't sound like much but it is more than twice as much as the total point deficit (11) that Iowa has faced at the end of regulation in all three of their losses. Not saying that they necessarily beat PSU but they more than likely are sitting at 7-1 vs 5-3 at this point.


iahawk72 said:
In 24 quarters of regulation football against BCS opponents, Iowa's offense has scored a total of 158 points or 6.58 points per quarter. (Yes, less than a touchdown per quarter.) Iowa's offense has only score double digit points in 4 of those 24 quarters (4Q-Pitt, 4Q-NW, 1Q,2Q-IU). Iowa's offense has been held scoreless in 6 of those 24 quarters and held to a field goal in 5 quarters. So in 11 of Iowa's 24 quarters of regulation football, they have averaged 1.36 points.


iahawk72
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I think you are spot on. I have been saying this for awhile as well. Thanks for the details.

In today's game, you need to consistently produce on offense. Iowa hasn't been able to do this. I think we've all seen 17-20 point offensive performances against the NWs, Indys, and Minnys of the world to know that that just ain't gonna cut it.

Coker had 250 yards on Saturday. McNutt is the all time leading receiver. Minny had FIVE freakin first downs going into the fourth quarter. Mind blowing, ain't it?

The inconsistency on offense is not isolated to this year, and it's troubling.
 
You are right. It is just that in previous year's Iowa had a Top 20 defense that masked the deficiencies that existed with offensive consistency of production. The disheartening (maybe too strong of a word for the topic) is that a) either KF didn't recognize it and try to improve these numbers from year to year or b) it is how he likes it. Either way it doesn't bode well for what is remaining of this season or the future.

It is a classic crutch situation. The staff became too dependent on the singular strength of one unit (defense) that when because of graduation, lack of player development and attrition they aren't able to replicate a top-flight defense they are left trying to figure out how to win without their traditional formula.

What is really scary is to think what Iowa's program could have been in recent years if the offense had come remotely close to being as successful nationally relative to other offenses as the defense was to it's peers.

iahawk72

racerhawk said:
The inconsistency on offense is not isolated to this year, and it's troubling.
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While I agree with the general sentiment here, I would also point out that on the flip side, it would be easier for the offense to produce more points if they had more opportunities to do so.

That means the defense could get off the field quicker instead of giving up lots of 3rd and long conversions, which keeps the clock rolling and the ball out of the hands of our offense.

I've just never been a fan of bend-don't-break.. at ALL. It also seems to allow inexperienced or mediocre QB's to find a comfort zone against us and find a rhythm. I just don't see that as a good thing.
 
Iowa's offense is never in the top half of the conference (except '02) but our defense and pts allowed are always in the top 3.

The defense is not as good this year as past years and the offense is about the same. With that combination we are going to lose more close games than in the past.

Sorry, don't need go into such statistical detail to see the obvious. If you allow more pts than past years and you score the same amount of pts, you are going to lose more games and have more close games.

The coaches knew this defense wouldn't be as strong as past years; the way to compensate would be to score more pts which they haven't done for the most part. Pedal to the metal is the answer, but won't happen.
 
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Not to mention that Vandenberg is #2 in the Big Ten in Passing Efficiency (#15 nationally, #2 in total passing yards, and #3 in the Big Ten in Points Responsible for and Total Offense.

storminspank said:
Iowa also has:
McNutt - 2nd in B1G in receiving yards
Coker - 2nd in B1G in rushing yards
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MoseSchrute said:
It usually is the offense, but not this year. It is painful to watch the D.
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It has always been the Offense... every single year. It is still the Offense this year. The Defense could be better for sure..... but the facts show that the Offense (our supposed strength this year) has performed at their usual mediocre level.

It has always been the Offense. Most of our success has been built on Defense and Special Teams.
 
one stat you should figure into your analysis is pts per min, and also post TOP, but that would mess with "its the offenses fault" theory, when trying to use stats to prove a point you have to use all the data not just bits and pieces, as it has been pointed out the ranking of key offensive performers being in the Top Ten at their position on the offensive side of the ball makes you stats look foolish. one stat i would like to see is Cokers pre BT rushing stats vs BT stats, so think before you post stats and post all the stats not just those that back up your opinion; this comes from a statistical analysis specialist, and the most common joke between those of us in the office," is statistics are for liars, losers and fools"
 
Couple of things. The point about Coker, McNutt and Vandy being ranked so high to me are facts that don't make sense. I am not saying that the offense isn't putting up productive numbers in yards gained, TOP, points per minute, etc., what I am saying is that it is odd that those numbers can be measured in a relatively positive way yet they don't translate into points on the scoreboard.

To me I look at our offense and I see actual productivity in a lot of measurements however at the end of games it appears like those metrics don't necessarily translate to points on the scoreboard.

I see top conference performers but something isn't translating to points.

Was it a formal statistical analysis? No. Was it meant to be? No. At the most basic level I think the offense's job is to maximize it's potential with the intent of scoring as many points as possible while the defense's function is to maximize potential with the intent of allowing as few points as possible. My analysis was nothing more than an illustration that both aren't performing particularly well but that because the offense didn't face the talent replacement challenges that the defense did they were under-performing in their role as points generator. And the defense in my opinion is closer to maximizing it's potential then the offense is to maximizing it's potential.

iahawk72

Dragonhawk said:
one stat you should figure into your analysis is pts per min, and also post TOP, but that would mess with "its the offenses fault" theory, when trying to use stats to prove a point you have to use all the data not just bits and pieces, as it has been pointed out the ranking of key offensive performers being in the Top Ten at their position on the offensive side of the ball makes you stats look foolish. one stat i would like to see is Cokers pre BT rushing stats vs BT stats, so think before you post stats and post all the stats not just those that back up your opinion; this comes from a statistical analysis specialist, and the most common joke between those of us in the office," is statistics are for liars, losers and fools"
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hwks1 said:
It has always been the Offense... every single year. It is still the Offense this year. The Defense could be better for sure..... but the facts show that the Offense (our supposed strength this year) has performed at their usual mediocre level.

It has always been the Offense. Most of our success has been built on Defense and Special Teams.
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Yeah, everyone kept talking it up, but I knew it would disappoint yet again. People should know by now that is what you get with this staff. We are, however, used to a good defense; and it has turned out even worse than expected this year.
 
hwks1 said:
It has always been the Offense... every single year. It is still the Offense this year. The Defense could be better for sure..... but the facts show that the Offense (our supposed strength this year) has performed at their usual mediocre level.

It has always been the Offense. Most of our success has been built on Defense and Special Teams.
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I agree with the bold. The rest is &^$#@@.

It's the defense. It's always been the defense.
When the defense is effective, the team usually wins. When the defense isn't effective, the team usually loses.

I know it would be nice to have a 'high-octane' offense at Iowa, but we're gonna have a high-octane offense at Iowa when pigs fly. Not while Ferentz is head coach.

For Iowa to consistantly win with Ferentz's conservative offensive playcalling, the defense must be dominant in all phases. It isn't. It never has been.

Maybe you guys should start a "it's time to change the head coach at Iowa" thread instead. If there was a change, there might be more of a chance the offense would be opened up. I realize this would be a problem for some fans because they like Parker so and want Parker to appear successful.
 
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