It'll be about Connor

[NikeHawk21]

Back in the mid 1980's and thru the 80's when they started the 3 pt line, .300 was a very good %. If a player shot around .300 they were viewed as a sharp shooter. Of course this evolved over time with young kids growing up shooting 3's and now the % is up in the .400.

I wonder what the metric or analytics state is the minimal % for a gain when shooting 3 pt shots. Obviously .400 or .300 is very good and if a player shot .200 probably not and hurting the team. Where is the bottom of the % but still benefiting the team shooting a 3 over a 2? Anybody know the magic %?

Iowa averages 1.079 points per possession, good for 19th nationally.

So a basic (imperfect) analysis would be:

1.079 PPP / 3 Point attempt = 35.96%

So for Iowa shooting over 35.96% from 3 would be a good shot, however Iowa is a very efficient offensive team (Garza). There is more to that though because 3pt attempts lead to less fouls drawn but could lead to more offensive rebounds.

Also if Fredrick chucked a bunch more threes when he was contested his percentage would likely go down.

But yes I think an open 3pt shot for a high level shooter like a Fredrick or Bohannon is great offense (Capt. obvious).

-25% 3pt shooter * 3 points = .75 points per possession (which is very poor). I think you have to be above at least 30% in today’s age of basketball if you’re going to shoot a bunch of threes.

 

[NikeHawk21]

re: the returning players, one of the more critical things for next season is that both CM and JT become reliable shot takers and shot makers. if they can do that, then defenses literally won't be able to double team luka without giving up an open 3-ball from a guy that can knock it down, reliably. pemsl would be the only guy you could double off of.

I really think Toussaint could make a substantial jump forward next year. We’ve seen what he’s capable at times (Rutgers, Wisconsin, Illinois). With another offseason to improve his offense and gain more confidence I think he could be high level player next season. Very excited about that.

 

[ArvadaHawk]

I really think Toussaint could make a substantial jump forward next year. We’ve seen what he’s capable at times (Rutgers, Wisconsin, Illinois). With another offseason to improve his offense and gain more confidence I think he could be high level player next season. Very excited about that.

i think it's important to remember that this will be his first off season with the iowa training staff at his disposal.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Iowa averages 1.079 points per possession, good for 19th nationally.

So a basic (imperfect) analysis would be:

1.079 PPP / 3 Point attempt = 35.96%

So for Iowa shooting over 35.96% from 3 would be a good shot, however Iowa is a very efficient offensive team (Garza). There is more to that though because 3pt attempts lead to less fouls drawn but could lead to more offensive rebounds.

Also if Fredrick chucked a bunch more threes when he was contested his percentage would likely go down.

But yes I think an open 3pt shot for a high level shooter like a Fredrick or Bohannon is great offense (Capt. obvious).

-25% 3pt shooter * 3 points = .75 points per possession (which is very poor). I think you have to be above at least 30% in today’s age of basketball if you’re going to shoot a bunch of threes.

Nicely done.

 

[PCHawk]

That’s a fair counterpoint, but aside from the start of the game I wondered how much time Connor played at the 4 spot. I looked at the minutes played for the last three games of Garza, Kriener, Pemsl (and Till). Assuming there are 80 minutes total between the 4 and 5 spots. What I found is that Connor averaged about 13.5 minutes of play time at the 4 spot out of his over 28 minutes a game. So he’s spending less than half of his time there, probably in part for that reason you just mentioned.

I think his natural spot is the 3 spot, but he’s had to spend a little time at the 4 this year due to injuries.

I don’t think he’s the main culprit in the rebounding struggles to be quite honest. I think zone defense is a problem and lack of any interest in boxing out by several Iowa players is an issue. I also think Garza gets pushed way underneath the basket at times.

Connor said in an interview that he started at the 2 when CJ was out. That surprised me.

 

[kicker22]

I see it as Connor is taking what the defense gives him. He's not forcing shots and/or forcing drives. This may be what his biggest attribute is, playing within game. He rarely takes a bad shot and really only takes wide open shots. He's now hitting them. If he score 5-8 a game with the assists he provides, that's pretty good for Iowa's net points in the game.

Valid point, but if they (collectively as it doesn't only apply to Connor) get too selective with what shots they are taking it can lead to the team having to take lower percentage shots at the end of the shot clock. The other side of that is that if they (Connor and those hesitant to shoot) are looking to shoot more it may create better looks for CJ and JW (although other teams may dare him to shoot at this point as is). There are times when Connor, Pemsl, and Evans are on the floor together in which it often feels as though the 5 defenders are willing to give up a mid range jumper and we simply aren't taking advantage of it.