CAARHawk
"I don't really have any idea if Washpun is goin to be able to be successful. But I can say it is starting to appear as if this staff is challenged with respect to closing on recruits. So, my feeling is that maybe it needs to get really dark to force Fran to make some changes."
Don't suppose this has anything to do with our record for the past few years.
Yes, it does. But Fran was hired to turn around a program, not continue the current trend.
I documented the data from the last seven years that showed that successful recruiters as new hire coaches turned their recruiting around almost immediately. The only two that didn't do it within their first two classes, including the year they got hired were Montgomery from Cal and Horn from South Carolina and they did it in their third class, which for Fran will be this November's class. I did this before Fran was hired and continued to discuss it after he was hired. I laid out a blueprint that showed what would need to happen with respect to recruiting. Thought Ogelsby and White were a good start. If Fran was able to get a few more 3 star types in the Spring signing period and then continue that with possibly one 4 star type in fall, he would be on his way. But, not being able to close on those types of players and dropping your overall star rankings below 3 is a really bad sign, if it happens.
That being said, the current class, even with Washpun, would be three 3 star level guys on Rivals, which is the site I go by. Really, the issue isn't Washpun, who will most likely be a good addition to be able to run the full court defense Fran wants to run. But it is about the possibility that Fran will not be able to close on the other players the program seriously needs.
But I can say this, at least his fallback players are more athletic and higher ranked than Lick's fallback guys.
Is it really hard to turn a program around at the major conference level? Absolutely. The only guys that seem to be able to do it, either are HUGE name hires, or get called out for cheating pretty darn quick.