Is This the Ferentz Era Low Point?

[HawkeyeMike23]

I have never heard KF say that. I remember Jon mentioning that stat ad nauseum during the streak.

And I agree its a chicken **** stat to be proud of.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure KF mentioned that as it always stood out to me since he usually acts so oblivious to any stats or records.

 

[okeefe4prez]

I believe I read that this is the most inexperienced team Kurt has ever coached at Iowa. With this in mind, the fact that we have lost 4 of our 6 by three points or less is a sign of hope.

Next year, with a more experienced D and maybe someone playing on offense who knows what the hell is going on, we probably win the close ones we're losing this year. Next year's schedule is a bit tougher though, but God bless it, I still trust Kurt's philosophy.

Agreed, ghost. Those bounces and plays we were close to executing or stopping on 3rd downs have a way of working themselves out over a long time frame. No one ever remembers that, though.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Agreed, ghost. Those bounces and plays we were close to executing or stopping on 3rd downs have a way of working themselves out over a long time frame. No one ever remembers that, though.

LUCK has a way of evening out over a long time frame. If you're talking about flipping a coin 4 times, it could come up heads 3 times, and tails once. Flip that coin 100 times, it will be pretty close to 50/50.

But I get the feeling that the current problems with this program go a little deeper than our simply not getting the bounces.

 

[Section136]

LUCK has a way of evening out over a long time frame. If you're talking about flipping a coin 4 times, it could come up heads 3 times, and tails once. Flip that coin 100 times, it will be pretty close to 50/50.

But I get the feeling that the current problems with this program go a little deeper than our simply not getting the bounces.

How so? Say CMU and Purdue miss their last second FG attempts. Say Knott doesnt make the play of his life and pick off JVB and we force OT and win. Say JVB doesnt throw a pick in the end zone against Indiana and we win that game. That right there would put us at 8-2 and everybody on here would be full of optimism.

 

[okeefe4prez]

LUCK has a way of evening out over a long time frame. If you're talking about flipping a coin 4 times, it could come up heads 3 times, and tails once. Flip that coin 100 times, it will be pretty close to 50/50.

But I get the feeling that the current problems with this program go a little deeper than our simply not getting the bounces.

Of course they do. AIRBHG, the o-line injuries, a guy missing breaking up a third down pass by 2 inches, there are a lot of luck elements in every Iowa season and like it or not, our luck goes in spurts which makes us look way better than we are some years and way worse than we are in other years.

I mean, I tried pinning this on the curse of northern Orange Bowl winners in the past 10 year (PSU, Kansas and Iowa) because all of them are screwed right now, but nobody is buying the curse theory yet.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

How so? Say CMU and Purdue miss their last second FG attempts. Say Knott doesnt make the play of his life and pick off JVB and we force OT and win. Say JVB doesnt throw a pick in the end zone against Indiana and we win that game. That right there would put us at 8-2 and everybody on here would be full of optimism.

I am saying that luck isn't the only reason we lost those games.

The fact that the game against CMU was even a game, speaks volumes about other problems within the program. You obviously disagree, but "bad luck" shouldn't have had the opportunity to even play a role in that game.

Or the fact that our offense could only muster 6 points against ISU. Bad luck?

 

[Section136]

I am saying that luck isn't the only reason we lost those games.

The fact that the game against CMU was even a game, speaks volumes about other problems within the program. You obviously disagree, but "bad luck" shouldn't have had the opportunity to even play a role in that game.

Or the fact that our offense could only muster 6 points against ISU. Bad luck?

Did you complain when the Hawks only beat Arkansas State by 3 in 2009?

Or did you complain when the Iowa offense only put up 6 points in a 6-4 trimuph over PSU in 2004?

Winning cures all.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Did you complain when the Hawks only beat Arkansas State by 3 in 2009?

Or did you complain when the Iowa offense only put up 6 points in a 6-4 trimuph over PSU in 2004?

Winning cures all.

That's just it, other than 2002 and 1985, Iowa has never had an elite team in most of our lifetimes (and even those teams got crushed by Pac 10 teams in bowl games). We are now and have been for most of the past 30-ish years an average to slightly above average program. And Wisconsin has stolen our mojo and displaced us from that perch up near the big boys in the conference.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Did you complain when the Hawks only beat Arkansas State by 3 in 2009?

Or did you complain when the Iowa offense only put up 6 points in a 6-4 trimuph over PSU in 2004?

Winning cures all.

Actually - yes. The game against Arkansas St. shouldn't have been close, either. It beat actually losing that game, but still....

Comparing a low-scoring win in Happy Valley against Penn State compared to home games against CMU or Arkansas St.. apples & oranges.

 

[JonDMiller]

Nice post. I read an article awhile back that the writer posed the hypothesis that Iowa was pretty vanilla because of the recruits Ferentz gets. (whether intentionally or if he feels that's all he can get is up for debate)

His theory was because Iowa has to spend so much time on development and fundamentals that there is not enough time left to tailor effective schemes against opponent's weaknesses.

I don't know how true it is but an interesting theory anyway.

Would like to see HawkeyeGameFilm's take on that.

I do think Kirk runs the offensive and defensive schemes he does, in part because of the type of player he believes Iowa can reasonably be assured of landing at Iowa. Given Kirk's history with the program dating back to the early 1980's, I would suggest he has a better handle on that reality than just about anyone.

As much as I am fascinated watching Oregon, Texas A&M and other offenses these days, you aren't going to tell me Iowa is going to be able to recruit kids, in appropriate numbers, to play that brand of football. Iowa has never been a school that attracts great wide receivers. Not even when Iowa was the 'passing school' at times in the 1980's, when it had a first or second team all conference QB for a number of years.

They will be able to get offensive linemen. They have done a great job of developing highly productive defensive linemen and safeties.

I get why Iowa plays the schemes it plays on the whole, but this year has been painful because they do not want to modify their schemes given the challenges they have...two ways to look at that...one is you are just going to take your medicine and fight another day, so that your young players keep working on the schemes they will play in as they get bigger, stronger and more experienced. That has been the Ferentz M.O. The second is you change some things to give yourself the best chance to win with what you have this year, which could risk development in the things you want your team to be in a year or two.

Ferentz has most always chosen the first route.

 

[JonDMiller]

Even in the last years of Lauterbur and Commins, I don't remember being this dismal. Some of our drubbings back then actually had inspiring moments....

OK this is stretching quite a bit

 

[treychase]

Making the difference is what Iowa should be paying that $4M/yr for. Consistently losing more close games than the law of averages bares is the most telling stat of the KF era. Here's a guy that is making top of the profession coin and he is literally delivering well below average results in this area. He is terrible in close games because he doesn't even understand time. It is remarkable that someone in his position A)got to his position & B)hasn't learned the concept of time after 30 yrs in the profession. Its actually quite scary.

 

[Hawkeye11en1]

You can run whatever scheme you want, but if you don't have a QB that can make proper decisions and accurate throws when the play is being run, you are going to struggle.

 

[okeefe4prez]

You can run whatever scheme you want, but if you don't have a QB that can make proper decisions and accurate throws when the play is being run, you are going to struggle.

The complexity is magnified when the receivers are making their own reads and running their own routes. Plus, when you add an o-line that would have problems in the CIML, you've got a recipe for a bad offense. Iowa is good when we are good in the trenches. This year, we are not good in the trenches. It's really pretty simple.

 

[eveningnewsteam]

With the schedule Iowa has this year, to be 4-6 at this point is the worst coaching job of many bad coaching jobs in the Ferentz era. The talent isnt great, but I guarantee you there are many coaches in the country that wouldnt be sitting at 4-6 with Iowa's schedule and this team.

 

[eveningnewsteam]

You can run whatever scheme you want, but if you don't have a QB that can make proper decisions and accurate throws when the play is being run, you are going to struggle.

Exactly. Vandenberg should have been pulled long ago. Not giving someone else a shot is a failure of the HC. There isnt another place in the country Vandenberg would still be getting snaps.

 

[Tfunkhawkeye]

Drew Tate did fairly well his first year starting.

I was talking about the backup coming into a game or replacing the starting.
Agreed- Tate was the definitive "playmaker" starting as a true soph.

 

[Tfunkhawkeye]

I am saying that luck isn't the only reason we lost those games.

The fact that the game against CMU was even a game, speaks volumes about other problems within the program. You obviously disagree, but "bad luck" shouldn't have had the opportunity to even play a role in that game.

Or the fact that our offense could only muster 6 points against ISU. Bad luck?

NAILED IT!

 

[Hawkeye11en1]

The complexity is magnified when the receivers are making their own reads and running their own routes. Plus, when you add an o-line that would have problems in the CIML, you've got a recipe for a bad offense. Iowa is good when we are good in the trenches. This year, we are not good in the trenches. It's really pretty simple.

Our line was fine before the two guys on the left side went down. After that it's been a struggle.

 

[brach700]

"It can be difficult to compare teams to past years, because of how much the game changes over the course of time. The game of college football is in the midst of a significant offensive transition, so to compare numbers from 2012 to 1999 doesn’t make a great deal of sense"

Realy? How much has the O really changed under KF.