Is This Going To Be The First Year No RBs Go In The First Round???

[Fryowa]

Most mock drafts I'm looking at have no RBs in the first round. Never happened before.

Granted it's a really weak class, but it does say a lot about how the NFL has changed over the past decade or two. Gone are the days of RBs being the hot commodity like they were in the 80s and 90s. I'll never tell anyone what to do with his or her life, but I do sometimes question nowadays when RBs leave early, especially when they aren't projected high, like Goodson. Maybe he had hit his ceiling at Iowa or didn't like it here, who knows?

I wonder if agents are honest with running backs as they come out of college and tell them they're a disposable commodity now who's only going to last a year or two on a practice squad at best.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Most mock drafts I'm looking at have no RBs in the first round. Never happened before.

Granted it's a really weak class, but it does say a lot about how the NFL has changed over the past decade or two. Gone are the days of RBs being the hot commodity like they were in the 80s and 90s. I'll never tell anyone what to do with his or her life, but I do sometimes question nowadays when RBs leave early, especially when they aren't projected high, like Goodson. Maybe he had hit his ceiling at Iowa or didn't like it here, who knows?

I wonder if agents are honest with running backs as they come out of college and tell them they're a disposable commodity now who's only going to last a year or two on a practice squad at best.

Hmm. And the 1st one projected to be off the board is ISUs Breece Hall. He looks the part of an every down solid back. He's probably not Johnathan Taylor good but whoever gets him in the right O will be glad they did. Especially if he falls to the 2nd round.

 

[Fryowa]

Hmm. And the 1st one projected to be off the board is ISUs Breece Hall. He looks the part of an every down solid back. He's probably not Johnathan Taylor good but whoever gets him in the right O will be glad they did. Especially if he falls to the 2nd round.

I've always wondered if the downfall of the running back in pro ball was strictly because QBs and WRs have gotten so good, or whether defenses have gotten that much faster and smarter.

Doesn't really matter why I guess, but it's not a primo job anymore, that's for sure.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

I've always wondered if the downfall of the running back in pro ball was strictly because QBs and WRs have gotten so good, or whether defenses have gotten that much faster and smarter.

Doesn't really matter why I guess, but it's not a primo job anymore, that's for sure.

Yeah it's a combo of it all. Offenses are pass happy and the rules being what they are is slanted towards that style of play. How many teams revolve their Os around the running game? Indy, SF, TN, Dallas who am I missing? Less then a 1/4th of the league for sure anymore does and some of those do it RB by committee like the 9ers.

The only thing crazier then drafting a RB really high is paying them a large deal on their 2nd contract. For what guys like Christian McCaffery and Saquan Barkley are making teams like the 9ers who have their entire RB position rooms more than paid for. Those teams have buyers remorse and chasing good $ after bad by doubling down on guys like that. I don't think selling jerseys is worth that but yet those deals are still happening but not a ton

 

[okeefe4prez]

I've always wondered if the downfall of the running back in pro ball was strictly because QBs and WRs have gotten so good, or whether defenses have gotten that much faster and smarter.

Doesn't really matter why I guess, but it's not a primo job anymore, that's for sure.

it's probably both of those things, but most importantly the nfl teams have figured out that unless you have a total real deal superstar who can do everything out of college (like that barkely kid from penn state) 98% of the running backs are probably fairly fungible and you might as well not waste a high pick or salary cap room on the vast majority of them. i miss the days of barry sanders and thurman thomas. i thought emmitt smith was overrated and was only good due to the supporting cast. he would have been a nobody in detroit if he had barry's line.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

I've always wondered if the downfall of the running back in pro ball was strictly because QBs and WRs have gotten so good, or whether defenses have gotten that much faster and smarter.

Doesn't really matter why I guess, but it's not a primo job anymore, that's for sure.

Running Backs have the shortest average career span of any position. They're probably seen as more replaceable and not a good investment for a high pick.

https://www.statista.com/statistics...areer-length-in-the-national-football-league/

 

[trj]

Lets look at recent 1st rd. draft picks:

Saquan Barkley: can’t stay healthy, Giants can’t unload him, will walk next next year with the Giants not getting a lot of production from him.

Christrian McCaffrey: can’t stay healthy. Highly productive when he is healthy but the last 2 years he hasn’t been healthy. Carolina gave him a 2nd contract and now they want to unload him, but can’t.

Ezekiel Elliott: very productive his first two years and fell off a cliff when he got a big money extension…now he is the 2nd best runningback on the Cowboys roster.

Najee Harris: The Steelers are going to grind him into the ground and then go get someone else once his rookie deal is up.

Bottom line, they are just not worth taking in the first round anymore. Especially, when there are Austin Ekeler types all over the place. Goodson could definitely be part of a runningback by committee situation. The 49ers could plug about anybody at the runningback spot.

 

[99topdawg]

As stupid as it sounds, a big part of the reason RB's don't get picked high is because RB's don't get picked high. You can't wait on a DB or WR because everyone wants/needs them. GM's know there won't be a run on RB's so no reason to pick them early. Also, so many RB's, outside the top few, are so much alike (at least their pre-draft grades say so), they can get one in the 5th that is near what they could get in the 2nd. Not the same, but not near the difference of other positions.

Also, RB's need to take the risk and come out as early as possible so they can get that second contract. It's very possible they are 27 or 28 when it comes time to get that 2nd contract. 27/28 can be old for a RB.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Lets look at recent 1st rd. draft picks:

Saquan Barkley: can’t stay healthy, Giants can’t unload him, will walk next next year with the Giants not getting a lot of production from him.

Christrian McCaffrey: can’t stay healthy. Highly productive when he is healthy but the last 2 years he hasn’t been healthy. Carolina gave him a 2nd contract and now they want to unload him, but can’t.

Ezekiel Elliott: very productive his first two years and fell off a cliff when he got a big money extension…now he is the 2nd best runningback on the Cowboys roster.

Najee Harris: The Steelers are going to grind him into the ground and then go get someone else once his rookie deal is up.

Bottom line, they are just not worth taking in the first round anymore. Especially, when there are Austin Ekeler types all over the place. Goodson could definitely be part of a runningback by committee situation. The 49ers could plug about anybody at the runningback spot.

Right and Harris last yr was just eh ok. He wasn't difference making really by any means on a team that wanted to run the ball to hide Big Ben all yr. Oline and team overall wasn't great but nevertheless he had little impact honestly. I'm with ya drafting RBs high is just not a smart strategy and we should see less and less of them getting taken very high. 9ers took 2 rbs last yr OSUs Sermon in 3rd round and Mitchell from LA Tech in 6th. The 6th rounder ended up playing way more and pretty well. And that isn't even looked at as all that crazy.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

As stupid as it sounds, a big part of the reason RB's don't get picked high is because RB's don't get picked high. You can't wait on a DB or WR because everyone wants/needs them. GM's know there won't be a run on RB's so no reason to pick them early. Also, so many RB's, outside the top few, are so much alike (at least their pre-draft grades say so), they can get one in the 5th that is near what they could get in the 2nd. Not the same, but not near the difference of other positions.

Also, RB's need to take the risk and come out as early as possible so they can get that second contract. It's very possible they are 27 or 28 when it comes time to get that 2nd contract. 27/28 can be old for a RB.

It's also about what's the difference between the backs. Example being the 49ers just last yr drafted Sermon from OSU in 3rd round and Mitchell in 6th. Sermon was the bigger name bigger school more success on a larger stage right? Well he got beat out by the 6th round no name kid for touches most of the year. Unless you get a top 5 level RB the difference between most of them is paper thin. Making drafting them high not very smart and a roll of the dice.

The Bucs are bringing Fournette back and for a team like the Bucs with Brady that makes sense. Most of the time though yeah giving any RB that 2nd contract for big $ isn't too smart. Look at the Giants and Panthers they gotta be having buyers remorse for both drafting their RBs high and then resigning them to large 2nd contracts. They've gotten nothing to show for it but selling jerseys.

 

[HuckFinn]

Other than the fact that I am a Packer fan, I really don’t follow the NFL closely. I do know that when the Pack hired their new coach, he made it clear that the run game, which is a zone read emphasis, would be a priority. Diversification in general with the offense was a goal successfully achieved. But a major reason for this change was to take pressure off AR and extend his career. Without a run game AR was the offense. That has changed dramatically. It does seem to me, as I watch Packer opponents, that diversified O’s are still more challenging than total pass O’s and clearly protect QB’s as an important goal. Maybe the value of RB’s is under rated?

 

[okeefe4prez]

Other than the fact that I am a Packer fan, I really don’t follow the NFL closely. I do know that when the Pack hired their new coach, he made it clear that the run game, which is a zone read emphasis, would be a priority. Diversification in general with the offense was a goal successfully achieved. But a major reason for this change was to take pressure off AR and extend his career. Without a run game AR was the offense. That has changed dramatically. It does seem to me, as I watch Packer opponents, that diversified O’s are still more challenging than total pass O’s and clearly protect QB’s as an important goal. Maybe the value of RB’s is under rated?

the individual rbs matter very little. at that level they are nearly fungible outside of the top few elite players. what really matters for the run game is the o-line and ability of the other skill position players to execute the blocking scheme.

 

[Fryowa]

...I am a Packer fan...

Makes sense.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Most mock drafts I'm looking at have no RBs in the first round. Never happened before.

Granted it's a really weak class, but it does say a lot about how the NFL has changed over the past decade or two. Gone are the days of RBs being the hot commodity like they were in the 80s and 90s. I'll never tell anyone what to do with his or her life, but I do sometimes question nowadays when RBs leave early, especially when they aren't projected high, like Goodson. Maybe he had hit his ceiling at Iowa or didn't like it here, who knows?

I wonder if agents are honest with running backs as they come out of college and tell them they're a disposable commodity now who's only going to last a year or two on a practice squad at best.

This is why in my Fantasy Football league (12 man) I draft RB's the first two rounds. This is I am still able to get one of the last top RB's who also catch passes in the 2nd round. After that, I go after WR's and eventually a top QB. WR's and even QB's are a dime a dozen as far as productivity now. It's the RB's who are the needle in the haystack in fantasy football now, IMO.

Oh, and I've won my league the last two years in a row doing this model. Damn, I really shouldn't give away my secrets.

 

[Fryowa]

This is why in my Fantasy Football league (12 man) I draft RB's the first two rounds. This is I am still able to get one of the last top RB's who also catch passes in the 2nd round. After that, I go after WR's and eventually a top QB. WR's and even QB's are a dime a dozen as far as productivity now. It's the RB's who are the needle in the haystack in fantasy football now, IMO.

Oh, and I've won my league the last two years in a row doing this model. Damn, I really shouldn't give away my secrets.

I finally gave up FF a few years ago. I can't make myself care enough to follow the NFL closely.

Especially not after watching college ball for 12+ hours the day before.

 

[HuckFinn]

Makes sense.

Damn right!

 

[beavdawg8216]

2014 there was no rb drafted in the first round, 2013 there was no rb drafted in the first round. Most years theres 1 or 2 rb chosen in the first round because their a dime a dozen. Also any RB that can leave early for the nfl should they have a very short nfl career span.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

2014 there was no rb drafted in the first round, 2013 there was no rb drafted in the first round. Most years theres 1 or 2 rb chosen in the first round because their a dime a dozen. Also any RB that can leave early for the nfl should they have a very short nfl career span.

Yeah for those giving Goodson grief they just don't get it... I wonder what percent of drafted running backs get a 2nd contract in the NFL. I'd love to know because I get the feeling it's 50% or less. It doesn't matter if they are going to be a 1st round pick or 6th. They need to get to the league and get that clock started so they can hopefully play and do well and then get to that 2nd contract where the real $ is. That applies to pretty much all the positions in the NFL too. Just the RB one more so than the rest due to their careers being shorter

 

[Fryowa]

Yeah for those giving Goodson grief they just don't get it... I wonder what percent of drafted running backs get a 2nd contract in the NFL. I'd love to know because I get the feeling it's 50% or less. It doesn't matter if they are going to be a 1st round pick or 6th. They need to get to the league and get that clock started so they can hopefully play and do well and then get to that 2nd contract where the real $ is. That applies to pretty much all the positions in the NFL too. Just the RB one more so than the rest due to their careers being shorter

My mind goes to finishing college, though (I have no idea if Goodson graduated or not).

Chances are probably one in several thousand that a RB will make enough money playing football to sustain him for more than a couple years. I’d also say the chances that a guy who leaves early and gets cut from an NFL team returns to finish his degree is pretty small.

I totally get that playing NFL ball is a dream for a lot of people and the only way to realize it is to try. But the realist in me knows the chances of succeeding are on par with winning the lottery, and a college degree will earn you a whole lot more money and stability over the course of a typical lifetime in most cases.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

My mind goes to finishing college, though (I have no idea if Goodson graduated or not).

Chances are probably one in several thousand that a RB will make enough money playing football to sustain him for more than a couple years. I’d also say the chances that a guy who leaves early and gets cut from an NFL team returns to finish his degree is pretty small.

I totally get that playing NFL ball is a dream for a lot of people and the only way to realize it is to try. But the realist in me knows the chances of succeeding are on par with winning the lottery, and a college degree will earn you a whole lot more money and stability over the course of a typical lifetime in most cases.

I'd heard his dad on a podcast awhile ago. It was after the season when I'd heard it and he's a college graduate for sure and I believe Tylers mom is too but I'm not as sure about that. They clearly prioritized education in their home from listening to him. I'm not sure if Tyler graduated but it sounds like he will be one way or the other it's tough to not like them when you hear Maurice speak.