Is the goal post moving again for NCAA tourney expectations?

HaydenHawk56

HaydenHawk56

Well-Known Member
This team has always had the final four as a goal (or better). But, when they went a slumping.....they looked like a first weekend knockout. Maybe the Sweet 16 the ceiling.

The team has rebounded and are proving people wrong. They are proving me wrong with each added victory. I was on record saying that Iowa would get to 13 wins and not get to 20 (overall) before the BTT. I believe I'm going to be wrong there by 1 game (14 wins and 20 wins over all) and they will accomplish both of these things beating Wisconsin in the last regular season game.

I believe the ceiling is looking higher on March 4th.....still down Nunge though and that is still concerning when our outside shots are not falling and we need more production by the glass and when Garza needs a break. CJ's fragile legs also concerning.

But, you know Iowa's bench has some things there. Ogundele.....he has some size there....could we find a way to work him in some in certain spots?

I don't think you can ever trample on a Sweet 16 birth. I think it is a tangible accomplishment. It is among the best teams in the country and a long, long way from the Lickliter years.

That said, if it ended there and this is our best team in 22 years and Fran's best ever team, will that feel a bit hollow?

Just wondering if the needle moved Elite 8ish to feel euphorically satisfying? Is a Sweet 16 birth now the baseline, acceptable level for this team?
 
Well, it's really hard to put break even outcome on it at this point! The ceiling for this team is really high. It's been a long long time since we could say that. I'm talking mid-80's time frame. But will they make a run?? So hard to say but I'm going to enjoy every minute of it!
 
I’m still at sweet 16, I think the Nunge injury was pretty big. We have guys stepping up but will they crumble when the chips are down? I hope not but there freshmen. CJ’s health a big factor too.
 
PCHawk said:
When they lose in the tournament it's going to be devastating no matter what round it is.
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Which is exactly why basketball is the wrong sport for some to follow. Only one team ends the season with a win. At least in college football, until they expand the playoffs, almost half the bowl teams end their season with a win.

Not sure I would use the term devastating, unless it is 1987 UNLV or 2006 NW State. A loss should never be more than disappointing.
 
I believe this team is starting to peak. I think we win the B1G tourney and make the final 4.

Of course,, that is if CJ isnt too hurt. If he is, then I would say we will be lucky to make the Sweet 16.
 
I'll give Iowa a better chance to perform well over a team like Michigan. After watching Illinois dismantle them without Ayo, I'd be more nervous as a Wolverine than us as Hawkeye fans. We are playing pretty damn well. I see us doing well in both tournaments.
 
We played well and beat Nebraska bad. But I wouldn't read too much into it. Nebraska is coming off of something like 15 games in 27 days and you could see they were tired. Not that we wouldn't have beaten them soundly anyway but we beat a wounded team.

Not sure where our ceiling is but my guess is still Sweet 16 as we are going to miss Nunge down the line. CJ with his health is a real wildcard as well.
 
The way we played against nebraska wasn't good enough to win a 2nd round NCAA tourney game.

The way we played against Ohio State was good enough to have a shot at the S16.

Hawks can't afford to have another game the rest of the year where we aren't getting put backs and offensive rebounds, and we have to be able to defend quicker, driving PGs like Mike Smith who clowned us during the Michigan game. Also, if Garza is going to get mobbed (which he will), Bohannon and Weezy (and hopefully CJ) have to hit those open kick outs. No chance if we don't. Connor's importance also cannot be overstated. He is the best post-feeder in the nation, and opposing coaches see those beautiful bounce feeds just like we do. He has to find a way to continue that.

Check those boxes without having an off night, and good things will happen.

One other thing I don't think everyone considers about the tournament is that every team is fighting for its life now because if you lose you go home. Every team we play is going to throw the kitchen sink at us and every game is going to be a physical dog fight.
 
PCHawk said:
When they lose in the tournament it's going to be devastating no matter what round it is.
Click to expand...
Amen.. Only one team is happy at the end. Only one...

I'll have to gear myself up for it but that's gonna be a tough day for me and I'm just a fan.

That said how far we can go just depends on the draw. I mean when we are playing well I like our chances. If we can avoid teams like Michigan, IL, and Gonzaga till the elite 8 or final 4 (or all together) I have quite a bit of confidence in our guys to beat most of who all is out there. I'm really looking forward to it yet at the same time dreading it.
 
I don't have much confidence in this team if CJ is hurt, we learned earlier last month how vital he is to the team. We cannot depend on Bohannon making 8 threes a game. Fingers crossed that CJ is ok, it sounded like he could have gotten back in the game yesterday. I laughed both times Fran said he's a little "sore", of course he's gonna be sore!
 
Fryowa said:
The way we played against nebraska wasn't good enough to win a 2nd round NCAA tourney game.

The way we played against Ohio State was good enough to have a shot at the S16.

Hawks can't afford to have another game the rest of the year where we aren't getting put backs and offensive rebounds, and we have to be able to defend quicker, driving PGs like Mike Smith who clowned us during the Michigan game. Also, if Garza is going to get mobbed (which he will), Bohannon and Weezy (and hopefully CJ) have to hit those open kick outs. No chance if we don't. Connor's importance also cannot be overstated. He is the best post-feeder in the nation, and opposing coaches see those beautiful bounce feeds just like we do. He has to find a way to continue that.

Check those boxes without having an off night, and good things will happen.

One other thing I don't think everyone considers about the tournament is that every team is fighting for its life now because if you lose you go home. Every team we play is going to throw the kitchen sink at us and every game is going to be a physical dog fight.
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I dunno about that. I mean JBo shooting like that along with Garza makes us ridiculously tough. What if Garza played 10 more mins what coulda he done? Even with limited production from JW and CJ they put up a ton of points/possession which puts so much pressure on teams to keep up. Combining that with how much better our D has been the last 3 weeks or so and I think that's a good recipe.

I would be interested to know if we weren't up playing like we were if CM woulda been as aggressive at shooting. He hoisted up a bunch and he wasn't feeling it to put it nicely. Something like that could hurt us for sure of he were to go 1-7 or 2-10 or some shit. But I don't think he'd have kept chucking them in a closer game unless he'd hit a couple more early.
 
Seriously, I haven't thought much about this until now, but PCHawk is correct - it's gonna sting this year whenever the season ends, barring a national title.

Not making it past the first weekend this year will be very disappointing. No two ways about it. Losing in later rounds will be heartbreak. The least painful way (for me) is probably to get trounced in a later round game, but I hope it doesn't end up that way. If this team goes down, I want to see them do it fighting till the end. If Iowa loses to Gonzaga in OT in the Elite 8, that'll hurt, but I can take it. I'll still feel good about this season.

This is a good problem to have, though, the way I see it. With high expectations comes the likelihood of painful losses. It sure beats where we were under Fran's predecessor.

I'll say Sweet 16 is my minimum expectation this year. Hoping for a lot more, obviously, and I think this team is capable of going deeper.
 
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It is easy to be the pessimist when the odds are already stacked against you (that being the 64 teams in a single elimination bracket). So I'm gonna say our ceiling is the final 4. We wont get passed a Gonzaga, Baylor or Michigan. Realistically, making the sweet 16 should be the goal. This would help with future recruiting and get some recognition.

Let's just hope we don't get matched up in Round 2 with some bracket busting catholic 13 seed that has an old lady in a wheelchair as their motivation that makes a run to the elite 8 before being squashed by a blue blood.

That would be the ultimate disappointment. Go down swinging against a good team. DO NOT LOSE TO A CINDERELLA.
 
HaydenHawk56 said:
This team has always had the final four as a goal (or better). But, when they went a slumping.....they looked like a first weekend knockout. Maybe the Sweet 16 the ceiling.

The team has rebounded and are proving people wrong. They are proving me wrong with each added victory. I was on record saying that Iowa would get to 13 wins and not get to 20 (overall) before the BTT. I believe I'm going to be wrong there by 1 game (14 wins and 20 wins over all) and they will accomplish both of these things beating Wisconsin in the last regular season game.

I believe the ceiling is looking higher on March 4th.....still down Nunge though and that is still concerning when our outside shots are not falling and we need more production by the glass and when Garza needs a break. CJ's fragile legs also concerning.

But, you know Iowa's bench has some things there. Ogundele.....he has some size there....could we find a way to work him in some in certain spots?

I don't think you can ever trample on a Sweet 16 birth. I think it is a tangible accomplishment. It is among the best teams in the country and a long, long way from the Lickliter years.

That said, if it ended there and this is our best team in 22 years and Fran's best ever team, will that feel a bit hollow?

Just wondering if the needle moved Elite 8ish to feel euphorically satisfying? Is a Sweet 16 birth now the baseline, acceptable level for this team?
Click to expand...

Well besides the mixed metaphor in your thread title which might more aptly read 'the basket is looking bigger' for the hawks I would be out of this world with a Big 10 Title or title game appearance. That would mean two big game wins probably against two top teams. I would think that a sweet 16 appearance is very probable for this team but I just cant say what the Nunge absence will me (Keegan Murray is playing great and tall on both ends though). And heaven forbid that CJF has a lingering injury,

If the hawks are playing well and shooting well I think Elite 8 is very possible. It is a toss to win that Sweet 16 game really.
 
Motigerhawk said:
I believe this team is starting to peak. I think we win the B1G tourney and make the final 4.

Of course,, that is if CJ isnt too hurt. If he is, then I would say we will be lucky to make the Sweet 16.
Click to expand...

I think Keegan Murray would be a good starter for CJF. Tall defender on the arc who is athletic enough (maybe have a tough time guarding a quick smaller guard he got switched onto). Also playing well on the offensive end.
 
Crashing out during the first weekend would be an enormous kick to the nuts for the team and fans. Making it to round three probably means a tough game against a 3 seed. Of course nobody wants Iowa to lose that game, either, but it's a toss up and a good team will lose. I would really like to see Iowa reach the elite eight. That would be a satisfying end to a fun season.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
Seriously, I haven't thought much about this until now, but PCHawk is correct - it's gonna sting this year whenever the season ends, barring a national title.

Not making it past the first weekend this year will be very disappointing. No two ways about it. Losing in later rounds will be heartbreak. The least painful way (for me) is probably to get trounced in a later round game, but I hope it doesn't end up that way. If this team goes down, I want to see them do it fighting till the end. If Iowa loses to Gonzaga in OT in the Elite 8, that'll hurt, but I can take it. I'll still feel good about this season.

This is a good problem to have, though, the way I see it. With high expectations comes the likelihood of painful losses. It sure beats where we were under Fran's predecessor.

I'll say Sweet 16 is my minimum expectation this year. Hoping for a lot more, obviously, and I think this team is capable of going deeper.
Click to expand...

The downfall to having a successful team is regardless of the expectations it hurts much more when it ends. Ironically in the past when we weren't that good losing was inevitable and it really didn't hurt too much. I think this years end is going to be a major kick in the ball sack that takes a good amount of time to recover from.
 
I think a Sweet 16 or above loss could borderline on anger/despair depending on how it turns out. Not getting through the first weekend would be anger.
 
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