Is NIT to NIT a good season?

[tm3308]

I'm definitely disappointed that the team failed to grab at least one of those signature wins, and I'm disappointed that we're going to the NIT again. But when the emotions wear off, or when I move on to next year, it'll be pretty easy to see that this was a good season in which missed opportunities kept it from being great.

 

[HerkeyHawk]

I wouldn't say we backed in last year and almost backed in this year. That suggests that we already had a spot in the NIT last year and a spot in the NCAA this year already locked up, then played like crap down the stretch and still made it (Minnesota). But Iowa carried a degree of momentum into the NIT last year, and quite a bit of it this year (winning 7 of 10).

You're misunderstanding me. When I said "back in" I meant we didn't have spots and barely made it/barely didn't make it.

 

[TChawk]

We backed into the NIT last year. We almost backed into the NCAAs this year. We beat the teams we should, and were competitive with the teams better than us (save the one Michigan game). Seems to be huge improvement to me, making it a good season. How quickly we forget exactly where we were during the Lickliter debacle.

But last year we also beat teams we shouldn't have, this year all we did is **** down our legs in those games at the end...i wouldn't call it a good season just for that reason alone.

 

[HerkeyHawk]

But last year we also beat teams we shouldn't have, this year all we did is **** down our legs in those games at the end...i wouldn't call it a good season just for that reason alone.

And last year Gatens freakishly shot outside his mind during that big stretch. Is that type of performance something you would classify as normal? Had we have someone remotely close to that type of performance during crunch time, we'd have won more games too.

 

[Klondike53226]

I would say it was fluky that Iowa lost as many games they did. You don't usually see one team on the end of even half as many bad bounces, bad calls, bad decisions and bad luck as Iowa had all in one season.

If you follow the chain of causation here, you'll see there is a perfectly reasonable explanation for Iowa's complications. I'll indulge a hint; It was not luck.

 

[hawkfan33]

If you follow the chain of causation here, you'll see there is a perfectly reasonable explanation for Iowa's complications. I'll indulge a hint; It was not luck.

Please elaborate. The KenPom blog does include a luck category ranking which was created by the statistician (not our former pg) Dean Oliver. In it Iowa ranks 299th in the nation in luck, or 48th in the nation in bad luck depending on how you look at it.

 

[hawkforlife9]

Yes, this year we were a lock for NIT. Didn't Barta buy us in last year? Can't remember how that went, but we went from not being on the NIT bubble to hosting several games.

 

[bcl20]

double post *****

 

[bcl20]

Please elaborate. The KenPom blog does include a luck category ranking which was created by the statistician (not our former pg) Dean Oliver. In it Iowa ranks 299th in the nation in luck, or 48th in the nation in bad luck depending on how you look at it.

I wonder how he calculates it. I assume it has something to do with margin of victory, among other things.

I don't really believe that all late blown leads are the same and it's kind of tough for me to see how you can quantify, accurately, luck in a sport like basketball (or even football)

 

[IAHawkFan]

I'm disappointed that we didn't make the dance, but we are definitely much better this year than we were last year.

Last year, we barely squeezed into the NIT and, quite frankly, probably didn't deserve to be there.

This year, we played like a tourny team most of each game. Unfortunately, our young team blew it those last few minutes in too many games. Ultimately, our RPI killed us, but we could definitely make a case for deserving to be in NCAA this year.

That is solid improvement and I feel very good about our future. I certainly wouldn't call this season a failure, but going NIT to NIT is hard to really call a success either - unless, maybe, we win the NIT.

 

[Klondike53226]

Please elaborate. The KenPom blog does include a luck category ranking which was created by the statistician (not our former pg) Dean Oliver. In it Iowa ranks 299th in the nation in luck, or 48th in the nation in bad luck depending on how you look at it.

I don't think there is a necessity to elaborate. There is no metric to quantify a subjective variable. Trying to rank teams by luck is as frivolous as attempting to stratify them by orangeness.

Upon investigating Mr. Oliver's methodology, it appears to be a derivative of the Pythagorean expectation curve wherein they assess the incongruancy of available data to expected results. While this model may provide some validity in Professional basketball, where the level of competition is roughly equivalent, applying it to college basketball seems a futile gesture to provide non-fallacious results.

 

[Bigtenchamp]

not sure how you quantify luck - but we didn't have much that's for sure.

 

[hawkfan33]

I don't think there is a necessity to elaborate. There is no metric to quantify a subjective variable. Trying to rank teams by luck is as frivolous as attempting to stratify them by orangeness.

Upon investigating Mr. Oliver's methodology, it appears to be a derivative of the Pythagorean expectation curve wherein they assess the incongruancy of available data to expected results. While this model may provide some validity in Professional basketball, where the level of competition is roughly equivalent, applying it to college basketball seems a futile gesture to provide non-fallacious results.

I meant please elaborate on what is the "perfectably reasonable explanation for Iowa's complications"?

 

[Bigtenchamp]

too be honest - really only "lucky" thing I can think of that's happened in basketball or football the last 5 years or so is 2009 - that's really the only season that it seems like luck went our way.

 

[woodyk1]

too be honest - really only "lucky" thing I can think of that's happened in basketball or football the last 5 years or so is 2009 - that's really the only season that it seems like luck went our way.

 

[Klondike53226]

I meant please elaborate on what is the "perfectably reasonable explanation for Iowa's complications"?

Inexperience and lack of superior talent. Poor shooting is a distant third.