Is Fran And Iowa Basketball At A Tipping Point?

MelroseHawkins

MelroseHawkins

Well-Known Member
Fran McCaffery is currently in his 8th year as Iowa's head coach. He was hired to bring an up temp game and to rejuvenate a stale program and apathetic fan base. He succeeded early on ascending the program slowly reaching the NIT championship, then two NCAA tournament invites, al beit, the play-in and bubble status routes. Fran has brought both excitement and frustration at times. His teams often score many points, but at the same time give up just as many or more points. Defense has been an issue, even in year eight.

I have been wondering, is his tenure at Iowa at a pivotal balancing point where can go either way? I have to answer I think so. Fran has accumulated what most would consider pretty solid recruiting classes the past couple years and including next year. He seems to have brought in solid players for his style of play.

Iowa has again struggled this season to find consistency and to rack up early wins, a season Iowa was supposed to take the next leap forward and possibly contend for a 3rd or 4th finish in the BIG 10. If Iowa does not make the NCAA this year and continues to struggle next year, could that be the end for coach McCaffery's tenure at Iowa with the balance tipping the other way? The reason I think it could is because this could play into the quality of recruiting classes in the future. If a potential recruit sees that success is not happening at Iowa, they may spur the program and go elsewhere.

For this reason, I feel a substantial leap and success must happen next year for certain. If not, there could be some uncertainty in the Iowa program. It just feels to me like it is at that proverbial balance point where could go either way. A lot depends on how the rest of this season plays out and next.
 
I think you answered your own question. Next year is the tipping point. He has the team he's going to have this year and next year since there are no open scholarships (however, I think one will open). It's up to him to do something with it by the next of next season.
 
I agree 100% ... Even with how low our program got under Lick, if you would layout where we have gotten up to year 8, I would of said it was the wrong hire because IMO we should be well past where we are by now. Either I am way too optimistic about how good we can be as a program or the Fran hire should of come with a clause that noted expectations of our progress should be held until year 10...which the latter sounds ridiculous to me.
 
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I expected at least 2 final fours and at least a B1G championship by now ...if he can't get that done, then bring in someone who can. On to the next.
 
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hawki1971 said:
I agree 100% ... Even with how low our program got under Lick, if you would layout where we have gotten up to year 8, I would of said it was the wrong hire because IMO we should be well past where we are by now. Either I am way too optimistic about how good we can be as a program or the Fran hire should of come with a clause that noted expectations of our progress should be held until year 10...which the latter sounds rediculous to me.
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I say 3 years is the magic number and results should be seen by then. The coach will have their recruits in and their system in place. If a team is still struggling then, you have to look at the coach and/or system. If by year 8 and seeing still only 17-18 wins with solid recruits, I think it's fair to evaluate if the program is moving forward.

It's pretty simple to evaluate and measure in basketball. For a school like Iowa, the bar is making the NCAA tournament (hopefully not as a bubble every year).
 
At this point next year is big for Fran.

We had higher expectations for this year and maybe those weren’t realistic and losing a guy like Jok was a bigger deal than we anticipated.

So yes we are having to change expectations for this year but to quote from one of Jon’s recent tweets: Iowa is the 335th youngest out of 351 D1 hoop teams.

Next year we will be more experienced and deeper at the guard position as I think most agree Connor can help when at full strength and with the addition of Weiskamp.
 
I don't think the tipping point comes until maybe the '19/20 season at the earliest. Not getting back to the NCAAs by then would probably make Fran go bye-bye but not until then. We have at least a couple of good recruits coming in the next couple of years and getting rid of him before that plays out would be foolish.
 
ibahawkeye said:
Naw- just create unreasonable expectations you'll never achieve and be miserable the rest of your life trying to reach unattainable goals!!
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Good point. Let's dump all expectations so we can be miserable losers with no goals... #TheIowaWay
 
Fran brought Iowa to the NCAA Tournament three years in a row for the first time since the early '90s. He took over the program when it was arguably in the worst shape ever. People forget what it was like under Lick.

This a disappointing season so far. No doubt. But Fran's job is not in jeopardy right now, nor should it be. That's ridiculous.
 
RobHowe said:
Fran brought Iowa to the NCAA Tournament three years in a row for the first time since the early '90s. He took over the program when it was arguably in the worst shape ever. People forget what it was like under Lick.

This a disappointing season so far. No doubt. But Fran's job is not in jeopardy right now, nor should it be. That's ridiculous.
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Ridiculous would be talking about this after 3 seasons.
Not 8.
We're certainly getting close to that moment.
 
RobHowe said:
Fran brought Iowa to the NCAA Tournament three years in a row for the first time since the early '90s. He took over the program when it was arguably in the worst shape ever. People forget what it was like under Lick.

This a disappointing season so far. No doubt. But Fran's job is not in jeopardy right now, nor should it be. That's ridiculous.
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People haven't forgotten what it was like under Lick, because this season has reminded us of it, which isn't a good thing.
 
tksirius said:
People haven't forgotten what it was like under Lick, because this season has reminded us of it, which isn't a good thing.
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Dude, you're off your rocker if you think this season resembles what things were like under Lick.

BTW, here's another stat for you guys:

Iowa is one of only three teams to have posted a Big Ten record of .500 or better each of the last five seasons (Michigan State and Wisconsin).
 
RobHowe said:
Fran brought Iowa to the NCAA Tournament three years in a row for the first time since the early '90s. He took over the program when it was arguably in the worst shape ever. People forget what it was like under Lick.

This a disappointing season so far. No doubt. But Fran's job is not in jeopardy right now, nor should it be. That's ridiculous.
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That is if you consider losing a play in game as making the NCAA Tournament. Many people don't including Schwartz.
 
RobHowe said:
Dude, you're off your rocker if you think this season resembles what things were like under Lick.
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Do you think we're going to win more than 15 games this season?

Todd Lickliter:
Season School Overall Big Ten Big Ten Standing
2007–08 Iowa 13–19 6–12 8th
2008–09 Iowa 15–16 5–13 10th
2009–10 Iowa 10–22 4–14 9th

RobHowe said:
BTW, here's another stat for you guys:

Iowa is one of only three teams to have posted a Big Ten record of .500 or better each of the last five seasons (Michigan State and Wisconsin).
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That's not saying much considering we were in the NIT 2 of those 5 years. Just because other teams in the conference have sucked, doesn't mean we should be ok with sucking.
 
It goes down in the record books and recognized by the NCCA as making the NCAA Tournament. So, yeah, I count it. The Tennessee team Iowa lost to in overtime in Dayton that year reached the Sweet 16, losing by two points to Michigan there.
 
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