Iowa's possible road to the National Championship

jesterapparel said:
we need Oregon to lose
Oklahoma to lose
winner of LSU/Auburn to lose
And also Alambama to lose again.

Of course Mizz and Oklahoma St. too

I wonder what would happen if all this happen except one thing.

and if the human rankings were

1. Alabama 11-1 or Oregon 12-0 or Auburn/LSU 12-0 or Oklahoma 12-0
2. Boise 12-0
3 Iowa 11-1
4. TCU 12-0

would Iowa be able to jump Boise with the Computers.

If Iowa was 3 in the two human polls and 2 in the computers, and boise was 2 in the Humans and 6 in the computers. Iowa would jump them in the BCS rankings I believe.

Right now boise is 7 in the computers and there schedule gets much worse.
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First of all, I think for Iowa to have any shot, the Big 3 in the SEC have to eliminate themselves by splitting their 2 games against each other. If one team sweeps, I think it's all over. The chances of splitting I think are good since none of them get those two games at home. Alabama has to go to LSU for a night game, LSU has to go to Auburn and Auburn has to go to Alabama. If Alabama loses to LSU giving it 2 losses and LSU and Auburn lose late in the year, I think they are effectively eliminated.

Second, Missouri needs to beat Oklahoma this week. I think if Oklahoma makes it to the B12 Championship undefeated, they won't lose to whoever the North qualifier is if they know a NCG is on the line.

Third, TCU needs to lose to Utah because I think their SOS is just good enough to keep it out of reach from a 1 loss BCS school (like Iowa).
 
Iowa would absolutely jump Bst in the computers... Bst will fall in the computers as the season goes on. Way too weak of schedule. They will top out at 3 or 4...
 
PeoriaHWKI said:
Iowa would absolutely jump Bst in the computers... Bst will fall in the computers as the season goes on. Way too weak of schedule. They will top out at 3 or 4...
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I don't think anyone is debating whether or not Boise would get jumped by Iowa in the computer polls if they win out. What is not clear is where Iowa and Boise would each end up in the 2 human polls that make up the other 67% of the BSC ranking.
 
The Big Twelve thing is interesting. My prediction is that OSU will lose to Nebby and OU.

That leaves undefeated Missou and OU, and 1 loss Nebby. If all schools take care of business with the exception of games against each other, here is what we have.

1. If Missou loses to Nebby and beats OU. It would be 1 loss Nebby vs. 1 loss OU in B12 championship game. That is a 1 loss winner with a big BCS end of season bump - Not Good for Iowa's chances.

2. OU and Nebby both beat Missou - That puts 12-0 OU in a championship game with an 11-1 Nebby, again, not good.

3. Missou beats Nebby and loses to OU. That puts 11-1 Missou with 12-0 OU. Big bump for winner again.

4. Missou beats both Nebby and OU. Rematch game between OU and Missou. Still, big bump, not good.

We don't want any of these scenarios. So, we want someone to reach up and give one of these teams a second loss. Best bets are OSU and A&M. Missou doesn't play either, so I would want Missou to lose both to OU and Nebby and then hope that one of these other teams could get a win over Nebby.

Then 2 loss Nebby jump up and beat OU in the Championship game.
 
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beaverdaleguy said:
But you are assuming they take the Big Ten Champ vs Boise over the Pac whatever Champ vs Boise..why not take Pac 10?
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I guess I'm not following what you are saying. I'm not assuming anything, if Iowa wins the Big Ten and doesn't make it to the national championship they go to the Rose Bowl regardless of where Boise is ranked. Same goes for the PAC 10 champ. Boise or any other non AQ school goes to the Rose Bowl if the Rose Bowl needs a replacement because they lost the conference champ from the Big Ten or PAC 10 to the title game and that non AQ school must be ranked in the top 8.
 
CAARHawk said:
The Big Twelve thing is interesting. My prediction is that OSU will lose to Nebby and OU.

That leaves undefeated Missou and OU, and 1 loss Nebby. If all schools take care of business with the exception of games against each other, here is what we have.

1. If Missou loses to Nebby and beats OU. It would be 1 loss Nebby vs. 1 loss OU in B12 championship game. That is a 1 loss winner with a big BCS end of season bump - Not Good for Iowa's chances.

2. OU and Nebby both beat Missou - That puts 12-0 OU in a championship game with an 11-1 Nebby, again, not good.

3. Missou beats Nebby and loses to OU. That puts 11-1 Missou with 12-0 OU. Big bump for winner again.

4. Missou beats both Nebby and OU. Rematch game between OU and Missou. Still, big bump, not good.

We don't want any of these scenarios. So, we want someone to reach up and give one of these teams a second loss. Best bets are OSU and A&M. Missou doesn't play either, so I would want Missou to lose both to OU and Nebby and then hope that one of these other teams could get a win over Nebby.

Then 2 loss Nebby jump up and beat OU in the Championship game.
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My money is on K-State coming up and beating Mizzou. I also think that Baylor beats K-State this week. That would hurt Mizzou's SOS.
 
CAARHawk said:
The Big Twelve thing is interesting. My prediction is that OSU will lose to Nebby and OU.

That leaves undefeated Missou and OU, and 1 loss Nebby. If all schools take care of business with the exception of games against each other, here is what we have.

1. If Missou loses to Nebby and beats OU. It would be 1 loss Nebby vs. 1 loss OU in B12 championship game. That is a 1 loss winner with a big BCS end of season bump - Not Good for Iowa's chances.

2. OU and Nebby both beat Missou - That puts 12-0 OU in a championship game with an 11-1 Nebby, again, not good.

3. Missou beats Nebby and loses to OU. That puts 11-1 Missou with 12-0 OU. Big bump for winner again.

4. Missou beats both Nebby and OU. Rematch game between OU and Missou. Still, big bump, not good.

We don't want any of these scenarios. So, we want someone to reach up and give one of these teams a second loss. Best bets are OSU and A&M. Missou doesn't play either, so I would want Missou to lose both to OU and Nebby and then hope that one of these other teams could get a win over Nebby.

Then 2 loss Nebby jump up and beat OU in the Championship game.
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I guess I'm not placing a lot of credence in Missouri's chances of being ahead of Iowa in the human polls if they lose a game....regardless of what they may or may not do in the B12 Championship. The fact that they aren't "name" program coupled with the fact that they would have a "late" loss (past the 1st half of the season) leads me to believe that they would not be placed above Iowa in either of the human polls. I mean, heck, look what happened to them with Kansas a few years back. Finally, if we assume Iowa wins out, Missouri doesn't have the schedule to compete from a perception standpoint with what Iowa would have beaten.

As I've said a couple different times, I really think it all boils down to the SEC. If LSU, Auburn and Alabama can all knock each other off, then I think that sets the stage for Iowa, given it's schedule.
 
I hear you about Missou. I just don't like what happens to Iowa when they sit and somebody near them has a big win. Also, the Big 12 just seems to know how to schedule for the computers. I never think their schedules are all that impressive, but the machines love them.
 
It's pretty simple if you don't think TCU/Utah and Boise St is going to the title game.
If Iowa wins out they need 2 of 3 these teams to lose:
1. Oregon vs anyone but Arizona unless Arizona gets knocked off by someone else.
2. LSU/Auburn/Alabama survivor.
3. OK/OK St/Missouri survivor.

I'm assuming Iowa passes Stanford in the next two weeks.
 
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