IowaLaw's 2018 Final Report Card: NCAA Rankings

IowaLawWasRight

Well-Known Member
Now that the season is over and the dust has settled, it's time to look back at how it all played out. An 8-4 season in a year that most knowledgeable fans predicted between 7 and 10 wins. So how did the squad that featured Five 1st Team All Big 10 players stack up against the rest of college football in ten key statistical categories?

1. Total Offense - 76th (down from 66th in 2017) (D+): Brian Ferentz's second crack at the Hawkeye offense, led by a returning pro prospect QB, two all-American tight ends, and some all-Big 10 OL, averaged just 389 yards per game. That put us behind offensive juggernauts like 3-9 UCLA, Illinois (who we shut out), and Louisiana Monroe. No doubt, the talent was there to be a solid offense. Stanley, Fant, Hockinson, and Smith could one day be NFL players. Unfortunately, Brian's predictable play calling and questionable personnel decisions, the team's poor execution in clutch situations, Ferentzian bad clock management, and a consistent lack of a sustained running attack all joined forces to doom the offense.

2. Total Defense - 7th (up from 17th in 2017) (A+): The Hawks gave up just 290 yards per game and landed in the top 10 nationwide! Kudos to Coach Parker, who truly deserves a raise and a shot at a head coaching position. The D-Line was so stout that it had no room for Epenesa. The DBs, lead by a second team all-American, kept things in front of them while freshmen CBs were thrust into action. The LBs were the weak link this year, in part because Seth Wallace didn't see fit to give them experience last year (Bo Bower's 100% snap count was well documented). While this top 10 unit loses a few key pieces next year, they return the vast majority of the play makers and should be a force that will keep the Hawks in games for years to come. The question will be: can the Hawks recruit the caliber of LBs that other schools actually want? Welch's best offer was Bowling Green; Nieman's was Florida Atlantic, and Hockaday's was Indiana. It's time for Seth Wallace to pick up the pace and bring in some LBs worthy of a top 10 defense.

3. Passing Offense - 68th (even from 69th in 2017) (C-): The Hawks threw for 228 passing yards per game. Unfortunately, many fans (and scouts) were expecting improvement from Nate Stanley between his sophomore and junior year as starter. He had another year in the "system," got more comfortable with the offence, and is physically bigger and stronger. Like with many Iowa Quarterbacks before him, the numbers suggest no improvement at all. Is the issue a lack of playmakers to throw to? Hawk fans seem to love Smith and Smith-Marsette. He had a Mackey Award winning tight end at his disposal along side a 1st round NFL lock in Noah Fant. Then there was the return of Iowa's leading receiver from 2017 in Nick Easely. All signs pointed to a vast improvement in the passing game. It's true, new targets did not emerge and develop like perhaps they should have (3rd year of Max Cooper, highly touted Tyrone Tracy, etc.), but the truth is, Nate Stanley seemed to regress from the glimpses of greatness that he showed in 2017 against OSU. He will be back again next year, for better or worse. Will he improve his game? Will he stay up past 9:00pm or get a slice of pizza at the Airliner? Stay tuned.

4. Rushing Offense - 77th (up from 96th in 2017) (D+): The Hawks averaged 162 yards per game despite being a "power running" pro style offense. While all 3 of the backs this year were just sophomores, the coaches are scrambling to find something better by handing out a slew of last minute scholarship offers to RBs. On the bright side, from everything I've seen from the 1 RB commit that we do have coming in next year, he looks to be an upgrade in talent. Not Eno Benjamin upgrade. Not Keron Higdon upgrade. But a Young/Kelly-Martin/Sargent upgrade.

5. Third Down Conversions - 20th (up from 104th) (A-) The Hawks converted on 46% of 3rd downs in perhaps the most surprising and most improved stat of the year. It's hard to fathom that the 76th best offense in the nation finished in the top 20 on 3rd down conversions. That tells me that either we left ourselves in 3rd and manageable most of the time, or that the play calling may have been a little more creative on 3rd down than previously thought. How this team was better on 3rd down than a team with Akrum Wadley in the backfield is baffling. Perhaps the 3rd down stats were inflated a bit in games against Illinois and Northern Iowa, because I don't remember many clutch 3rd down conversions against Penn State, Purdue, Northwestern or Wisconsin.

6. Sacks - 21st (up from 51st in 2017) (A-): 34 sacks this year rank up there with the best under Ferentz. Epenesa improved like everyone expected of a 5 star recruit, and the rest of the DLine exceeded expectations. Perhaps the most impressive part of this number is that it was done with very little blitzing. Next year's DLine adds big time recruit Nixon, and should not miss a beat.

7. Sacks Allowed - 12th (up from 54th in 2017) (A): In 12 games this year, the Hawks gave up just 13 sacks! That's especially impressive given Stanley's lack of mobility and jittery feet when the pocket collapses. The OL will go down as the most underrated unit on this year's squad, with several members getting all-conference recognition. While they did not appear to open many holes for the RBs, it is possible that the RBs simply were not that good. Last year's freshmen tackles improved to become solid contributors. The interior line greatly missed Daniels, but the Hawks can't control early entries into the NFL draft. With Daniels, this would have been an elite level OL.

8. Net Punting - 100th (down from 89th in 2017) (F): What a disaster the punting game was this year. Two years ago, the coaching staff recruited a scholarship kid out of Milwaukee to come in and take over (his only other scholarship offer was Wyoming). In 2017, that scholarship kid was beat out by a walk-on. That walk-on went on to finish dead last in the Big 10, with mostly 20 yard low line-drive punts that rolled another 15 yards to a dead stop. Rather than go out and find a grad transfer/JUCO/high school punter to take over the 2018 punting game, LeVar Woods sat back, studied his "trick plays," collected his ever increasing salary, and handed the job back to the Big 10's worst punter. Woods expected a miraculously different result. His incompetence as a special teams coach cost Iowa dearly. The Hawks, losers of 4 close games, lost the field possession battle in every one of them. Raestetter took 100% of the snaps at punter this year despite having a scholarship guy on the bench, and will go down as the Herb Grigsby of his generation.

9. Turnover Margin - 17th (down from 26th) (B+): Turnovers are painful, but every team has them. Opponents had 24 turnovers this year, while Iowa had just 16. The defense was aggressive and the offense was conservative. While many Hawk fans like to attribute losses to turnovers, it is more accurate to attribute wins to turnovers.

10. Penalties - 27th (down from 32nd in 2017) (B+): In spite of how many felt, Iowa was not a heavily penalized team this year. This team showed solid discipline and had decent leadership on both sides of the ball. This stat does make you wonder, though...if penalties weren't the problem and turnovers weren't the problem, what was?

Overall, the stats and the win/loss record shows that this team was better than last year's squad. Did the easy schedule help? Sure. But the number of all-Big 10 athletes shows that this was in the upper 1/4 of Kirk's teams and likely could have been a New Year's Six team with the right coaching.
 
I don't think Brian's play calling is that predictable. He is light years better than Greg Davis. But when you don't really have anyone on the outside, a QB who is below average at connecting on deep passes to the guys on the outside and an o-line unit that has some holes, it ties your hands a bit on play calling. The offense only had 2 disastrous games this year, so that's a big positive.
 
Overall a good analysis and I agree with most of the conclusions.

I don't think the problem was coaching this year. We had an inability to win 4 very close games. Phil Steele characterizes that as "Luck," a factor that he quantifies and varies for teams from year to year. He has stated many times that a team that loses a bunch of close games one year tends tol win those games the next year, everything else being equal. In other words, luck varies from year to year (some years you get the bounces, and some years you do not).I think Iowa was lucky to win against ISU and Nebraska, and unlucky in the 4 losses. So, they were 2-4 under the Luck factor. In 2015, they won all of the close games. One game from 2015 really comes to mind. Against a very good Wisconsin team on the road, Iowa was clinging to a 10-6 lead well into the 4th quarter. Wisconsin had 1st and goal from the 2 yard line (sound familiar), and then turned it over on the next play with a fumble, which was the key play in the game and in the season. Iowa won, benefiting greatly from that turnover, and that game was the key victory propelling Iowa to 12-0.

This year, we had a 1st and goal on Penn State's 2 yard line with 2 minutes left in the game. We turn it over on the next play. Very unlucky, and it led to a key loss. against Wisconsin, we had a lead and momentum until a ball grazed one of our players on a punt. If that player had been 6 inches further away, the ball would not have grazed him. Very unlucky. Wisconsin took the lucky turnover and took the lead a few plays later.

I also think using total yards per game in evaluating an offense is erroneous. There are a lot of different ways to measure an offense. The Massey Ratings (a respected rating service) ranks Iowa 36th in "Power to Score," and 14th in "Power to Prevent the Opponent from Scoring." Under their method, Iowa had a very good offensive team this year. By the way, Massey ranks Iowa the 25th best team in the country right now, which seems about right to me. Very good team (one of the better teams under Ferentz), but not great.
 
I think Iowa was lucky to win against ISU and Nebraska, and unlucky in the 4 losses..

I agree with a lot you say on luck and statistics but I disagree on a couple of items.

I deleted it but you said the coaches didnt cost us this year whereas I think some of the bad luck is bad or just not great coaching on all the details, like staying away from that friggin almost dead ball punt. Also, the hawks didnt look good getting ready for the late 1st and goal at penn st so the coaches needed to be on top of that and also how about running the ball and if you dont make it either 35 seconds runs off the clock or PSU has to call time out.

Lastly, Brian F's Off game plan against jNW was terrible not stretching them out and going over the top (as OSU proved in the title game is the thing to do).

Also, how to say Iowa was lucky to beat 1) ISU when they only had one good drive the whole game, Iowa would drive the ball but not finish, Iowa's D made them have a couple very bad punts and Fant got mugged on the goal line on the second possession and 2) if KF takes the chip shot FG the hawks have an 18 pt lead with about 22 minutes to go?????

Scoring defense is one main stat, total yards and yards per drive are big, 3rd down defense.

Offense, scoring, red zone, 3rd down, not that big on yardage stats because if your defense is giving you great field position but you are methodical you wont be scoring a lot nor gobbling up tons of yards
 
Chosen - while luck can occasionally play a role in sports, luck has nothing to do with the examples you site. Luck would be having your star QB tear his ACL while jogging in practice. Luck would be a pass happy team playing a game in the pouring rain. Stanley's interception at Penn State's 2 yard line had nothing to do with luck. It was an incompetent OC getting the play in late, forcing the QB to hike the ball before everyone was ready. It was a QB who is notoriously bad in the clutch completely panicking and not calling time out, then forcing a terrible throw to a double covered receiver. The Wisconsin punt also had nothing to do with luck. Our special teams have been woefully under-coached, and in that instance, the punter and blockers were not coached to have the punter communicate that everyone needs to get away from the ball.

UIHawk is absolutely right about the awful game plan for the Northwestern game. What genius determined that short passes behind the line of scrimmage over and over and over was the key to success against a team who was without their top to CBs?

Lumber - the Hawks were 41st in red zone defense and 56th in red zone offense. Pretty mediocre at both.



Overall a good analysis and I agree with most of the conclusions.

This year, we had a 1st and goal on Penn State's 2 yard line with 2 minutes left in the game. We turn it over on the next play. Very unlucky, and it led to a key loss. against Wisconsin, we had a lead and momentum until a ball grazed one of our players on a punt. If that player had been 6 inches further away, the ball would not have grazed him. Very unlucky. Wisconsin took the lucky turnover and took the lead a few plays later.

I also think using total yards per game in evaluating an offense is erroneous. There are a lot of different ways to measure an offense. The Massey Ratings (a respected rating service) ranks Iowa 36th in "Power to Score," and 14th in "Power to Prevent the Opponent from Scoring." Under their method, Iowa had a very good offensive team this year. By the way, Massey ranks Iowa the 25th best team in the country right now, which seems about right to me. Very good team (one of the better teams under Ferentz), but not great.
 
The total offense and defense “ratings” will always underrate Iowa’s offense and overrate their defense because of their style of play. Iowa aims to control the clock and limit the total number of plays.
 
8. Net Punting - 100th (down from 89th in 2017) (F): What a disaster the punting game was this year. Two years ago, the coaching staff recruited a scholarship kid out of Milwaukee to come in and take over (his only other scholarship offer was Wyoming). In 2017, that scholarship kid was beat out by a walk-on. That walk-on went on to finish dead last in the Big 10, with mostly 20 yard low line-drive punts that rolled another 15 yards to a dead stop. Rather than go out and find a grad transfer/JUCO/high school punter to take over the 2018 punting game, LeVar Woods sat back, studied his "trick plays," collected his ever increasing salary, and handed the job back to the Big 10's worst punter. Woods expected a miraculously different result. His incompetence as a special teams coach cost Iowa dearly. The Hawks, losers of 4 close games, lost the field possession battle in every one of them. Raestetter took 100% of the snaps at punter this year despite having a scholarship guy on the bench, and will go down as the Herb Grigsby of his generation.
This gold right here. Sad but true.
 
The total offense and defense “ratings” will always underrate Iowa’s offense and overrate their defense because of their style of play. Iowa aims to control the clock and limit the total number of plays.

I'm gonna go meganerd with this generally accurate post. Warning TL;DR

What's the underlying motivation for wanting a game with the fewest snaps possible?
If I'm the HC and I believe my team has . . .
better players (better depth implied)
better coaches (better play-calling implied)
Then I want more plays not less. Let me explain.
Let's say you have a race car that tops out at 201mph
And your rival has a race car which tops out at 200mph
Do you want a race that is only 2 miles in distance? Or 200 miles in distance?
A: You want the race with more distance.
In a short race maybe your rival is better with the shift-gate and gets off the line quicker than you, or some such other minor difference. This may allow him to win a short race even though his car is slower.
In a long race your slight top-speed advantage will maximize your performance return giving you not only the victory, but more room for "bad luck" or your own human error.
What does all this mean? Well it helps explain why Iowa can lose to inferior teams. Minimizing the number of plays actually helps our opponent more than it helps us. Because it helps the weaker squad for the mathematical reasons given. And in a 13 game season where most of our opponents are weaker than us, this alters the overall outcome.
That's why you see so many arguments around what type of program we are versus what type of program we can be. Iowa's strategy results in being a 7.5 (round up to 8) win program. But if the strategy was reversed, meaning maximizing the number of plays, we would be an 8.5 (round up to 9) win program. It seems like a small difference, but the fans would at least feel like the team is accomplishing what it is capable of.
 
I suppose my answer to why I read it, though I generally disagree with him because he tends to be one of the our coaches all suck guys, and blame everything on coaching guys, which that's just not me...…….is because he does a nice job of formulating his opinions. I can disagree with his opinions, and I do, but at least he gives em, and doesn't tell you you're a moron for disagreeing with him. Plus its either that or I have to start grading the 125 pre-calculus tests I have to grade today. And well, i'd rather read IowaLAws stuff.
 
I'm gonna go meganerd with this generally accurate post. Warning TL;DR

What's the underlying motivation for wanting a game with the fewest snaps possible?
If I'm the HC and I believe my team has . . .
better players (better depth implied)
better coaches (better play-calling implied)
Then I want more plays not less. Let me explain.
Let's say you have a race car that tops out at 201mph
And your rival has a race car which tops out at 200mph
Do you want a race that is only 2 miles in distance? Or 200 miles in distance?
A: You want the race with more distance.
In a short race maybe your rival is better with the shift-gate and gets off the line quicker than you, or some such other minor difference. This may allow him to win a short race even though his car is slower.
In a long race your slight top-speed advantage will maximize your performance return giving you not only the victory, but more room for "bad luck" or your own human error.
What does all this mean? Well it helps explain why Iowa can lose to inferior teams. Minimizing the number of plays actually helps our opponent more than it helps us. Because it helps the weaker squad for the mathematical reasons given. And in a 13 game season where most of our opponents are weaker than us, this alters the overall outcome.
That's why you see so many arguments around what type of program we are versus what type of program we can be. Iowa's strategy results in being a 7.5 (round up to 8) win program. But if the strategy was reversed, meaning maximizing the number of plays, we would be an 8.5 (round up to 9) win program. It seems like a small difference, but the fans would at least feel like the team is accomplishing what it is capable of.
and I think you saw a change in how the coaching staff approached these games this year. In games where in the past we would have done 3 yards and a cloud of dirt we came out in shotgun and passed a lot. I think if anybody wants to complain about stuff there's plenty of stuff from this season, its just probably not accurate to call this season the same as usual, I think anybody arguing that stuff this year is silly or didn't watch the games. This year we've had a lot of ups and downs but the coaching staff definitely went about things in different ways then we are used to in the past.
 

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