IowaLaw's 2018 Final Report Card: NCAA Rankings

[peerok]

You're assuming Iowa has better players than their opponent. Now, if you put any stock in recruiting rankings, then Iowa has better players than team like Indiana and Iowa State. However, teams like Ohio State and Penn State have better players than Iowa according to recruiting rankings.

So if we "sped up" the game it would help us against lesser teams, but it would hurt us against better teams. Take your pick, but it would probably add up to about the same number of wins over the course of several years.

 

[karras]

You're assuming Iowa has better players than their opponent. Now, if you put any stock in recruiting rankings, then Iowa has better players than team like Indiana and Iowa State. However, teams like Ohio State and Penn State have better players than Iowa according to recruiting rankings.

So if we "sped up" the game it would help us against lesser teams, but it would hurt us against better teams. Take your pick, but it would probably add up to about the same number of wins over the course of several years.

This debate seems natural because most on here think KF is a poor recruiter. They attribute all his success to Doyle and Parker. I disagree with that (partially). ALL TEAMS ARE DEVELOPMENTAL programs because there is no such thing as an FBS team which brings in high school students and doesn't try and develop (improve) them. Now lets look at the schedule:
NIU
Iowa State
UNI
Badgers
Gophers
Hoosiers
Terrapins
Nittany Lions
Boilermakers
Wildcats
Illini
Huskers
Tell me which of those teams have superior players? Superior coaches? You mentioned 4 teams, but we don't play a 4 team schedule. And look at the player/coach accolades of Iowa compared to those other teams.

 

[HawkeyeWalker]

Is the punting situation the biggest head-scratcher ever under KF?
Or is it just me?

Agreed. When ball control and field position is so extremely high on the priority, you would think a great, even elite, punting game would be a huge focus.

It's been the opposite of that.

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

I suppose my answer to why I read it, though I generally disagree with him because he tends to be one of the our coaches all suck guys, and blame everything on coaching guys, which that's just not me...…….is because he does a nice job of formulating his opinions. I can disagree with his opinions, and I do, but at least he gives em, and doesn't tell you you're a moron for disagreeing with him. Plus its either that or I have to start grading the 125 pre-calculus tests I have to grade today. And well, i'd rather read IowaLAws stuff.

125 pre-calc tests? I’d choose to talk about football too.

 

[thetrza]

In conclusion, Iowa's 2018 NCAA rankings are a land of contrasts....

 

[peerok]

This debate seems natural because most on here think KF is a poor recruiter. They attribute all his success to Doyle and Parker. I disagree with that (partially). ALL TEAMS ARE DEVELOPMENTAL programs because there is no such thing as an FBS team which brings in high school students and doesn't try and develop (improve) them. Now lets look at the schedule:
NIU
Iowa State
UNI
Badgers
Gophers
Hoosiers
Terrapins
Nittany Lions
Boilermakers
Wildcats
Illini
Huskers
Tell me which of those teams have superior players? Superior coaches? You mentioned 4 teams, but we don't play a 4 team schedule. And look at the player/coach accolades of Iowa compared to those other teams.

I totally agree with your comment that all teams are developmental. (some more than others). I've never understood why some people act like being a developmental program is a negative thing, thats what programs are supposed to do.

 

[peerok]

This debate seems natural because most on here think KF is a poor recruiter. They attribute all his success to Doyle and Parker. I disagree with that (partially). ALL TEAMS ARE DEVELOPMENTAL programs because there is no such thing as an FBS team which brings in high school students and doesn't try and develop (improve) them. Now lets look at the schedule:
NIU
Iowa State
UNI
Badgers
Gophers
Hoosiers
Terrapins
Nittany Lions
Boilermakers
Wildcats
Illini
Huskers
Tell me which of those teams have superior players? Superior coaches? You mentioned 4 teams, but we don't play a 4 team schedule. And look at the player/coach accolades of Iowa compared to those other teams.

As far as Iowa having superior players compared to these teams, well I guess it depends on whether you are talking about the players when they leave or when they get to Iowa from high school. I'd say Iowa players are superior to a lot of teams when they leave, but are probably pretty even when they step on campus.

As far as who has superior coaches,my opinion is that KF and his staff are as good as any staff in the country at developing players, but below average at x's and o's. Every coach has strengths and weakness. KF' strength is teaching technique Monday through Friday but his weakness is making game day decisions and adjustments on Saturdays. Whether that makes him better or worse than other coaches in the BIG I guess is a matter of opinion.

 

[peerok]

The total offense and defense “ratings” will always underrate Iowa’s offense and overrate their defense because of their style of play. Iowa aims to control the clock and limit the total number of plays.

Not only does Iowa try to slow the game down and limit the number of plays, but a lot of other teams in the BIG play the same way. Now if Iowa played in the Big 12 where there are a lot of high powered, no huddle air raid offenses, Iowa's defensive numbers wouldn't be near as good. On the other hand, the Big 12 has never been known for defense, so if Iowa played in that conference, their offensive numbers would probably take a big jump.

 

[Knight78]

I'm gonna go meganerd with this generally accurate post. Warning TL;DR

What's the underlying motivation for wanting a game with the fewest snaps possible?
If I'm the HC and I believe my team has . . .
better players (better depth implied)
better coaches (better play-calling implied)
Then I want more plays not less. Let me explain.
Let's say you have a race car that tops out at 201mph
And your rival has a race car which tops out at 200mph
Do you want a race that is only 2 miles in distance? Or 200 miles in distance?
A: You want the race with more distance.
In a short race maybe your rival is better with the shift-gate and gets off the line quicker than you, or some such other minor difference. This may allow him to win a short race even though his car is slower.
In a long race your slight top-speed advantage will maximize your performance return giving you not only the victory, but more room for "bad luck" or your own human error.
What does all this mean? Well it helps explain why Iowa can lose to inferior teams. Minimizing the number of plays actually helps our opponent more than it helps us. Because it helps the weaker squad for the mathematical reasons given. And in a 13 game season where most of our opponents are weaker than us, this alters the overall outcome.
That's why you see so many arguments around what type of program we are versus what type of program we can be. Iowa's strategy results in being a 7.5 (round up to 8) win program. But if the strategy was reversed, meaning maximizing the number of plays, we would be an 8.5 (round up to 9) win program. It seems like a small difference, but the fans would at least feel like the team is accomplishing what it is capable of.

I don't think that at all. I think what a coach does is that he has a particular overall philosophy. That philosophy then dictates what offense he runs, what defense he runs, how he handles players, how he develops players, even down to what kind of athlete he's interested in recruiting. While many on this board are very critical of Ferentz, none can say he hasn't been consistent with his philosophy.

 

[ChosenChildren]

Chosen - while luck can occasionally play a role in sports, luck has nothing to do with the examples you site. Luck would be having your star QB tear his ACL while jogging in practice. Luck would be a pass happy team playing a game in the pouring rain. Stanley's interception at Penn State's 2 yard line had nothing to do with luck. It was an incompetent OC getting the play in late, forcing the QB to hike the ball before everyone was ready. It was a QB who is notoriously bad in the clutch completely panicking and not calling time out, then forcing a terrible throw to a double covered receiver. The Wisconsin punt also had nothing to do with luck. Our special teams have been woefully under-coached, and in that instance, the punter and blockers were not coached to have the punter communicate that everyone needs to get away from the ball.

UIHawk is absolutely right about the awful game plan for the Northwestern game. What genius determined that short passes behind the line of scrimmage over and over and over was the key to success against a team who was without their top to CBs?

Lumber - the Hawks were 41st in red zone defense and 56th in red zone offense. Pretty mediocre at both.

Phil Steele very emphatically disagrees with you about the "Luck" factor. You should subscribe to his magazine. You are obviously trying to be a student of the game (I admire that), so that is one magazine you really should review every year.

Under the Steele analysis, Iowa was clearly an unlucky team this year. all teams make mistakes; Iowa's were at the worst possible times for a team that overall is well coached (very few penalties; plus in turnover margin)

 

[IowaLawWasRight]

peerok - given Iowa's weak schedule, Iowa DID, in fact, have better players than virtually all of its opponents. Iowa had 9 players either 1st or 2nd team all-Big 10! That is Ohio State grade talent. With those kind of players on both sides of the ball, you expect a dominant team.

hawkeyewalker - you hit the nail on the head. If we are going to run the play clock down each and every time, and play a slow, monotonos, ball-control style of offense, then the most important player on the team after the QB is the Punter. It should be a top priority position. Rather than having 10 scholarship RBs and 12 scholarship WRs, it might make sense to at least have 1 solid scholarship punter who makes a difference each and ever game while the 12th string WR is on the bench texting his friends.

chosen - your theory of bad luck suggests that the game is just 5 min long. Games have four 15 minute quarters. Sure, you can get a bad break here or there. But one bad break is not enough to account for a win or a loss. The only true bad luck in football is a key injury (or multiple injuries) like what plagued Michigan State and Minnesota this year, or some unforeseen weather occurrence that interferes with the game at an inopportune time. Stanley choking in the clutch is not luck.

You're assuming Iowa has better players than their opponent. Now, if you put any stock in recruiting rankings, then Iowa has better players than team like Indiana and Iowa State. However, teams like Ohio State and Penn State have better players than Iowa according to recruiting rankings.

So if we "sped up" the game it would help us against lesser teams, but it would hurt us against better teams. Take your pick, but it would probably add up to about the same number of wins over the course of several years.