Iowa/Wisconsin Game Thread

[SwirlinLingerie]

5-1 their in NCAA
4-2 they need two in the BTT for NCAA
3-3 need to win BTT for NCAA but lock for NIT
2-4 probably still in NIT - need one in BTT

Anything else no postseason imo - Iowa still has 7th highest Net in the conference and that’s not likely to change, so then it depends on how many B1G make it as the top 2 NET that don’t make NCAA get automatically into NIT.

So you are counting the first round BTT game too?

Let's forget that one for a minute. Neutral court, shouldn't be a killer game based on the scenario I lay out.

Don't you think going 3-2 down the stretch here would put them right on the bubble? Penn State is doable, too. And Illinois in Carver to end the season - you figure the Hawks bring their best effort for that one.

So if they can steal one tonight at Michigan State - huge if - but if they do, we can start to dream a little, can't we?

That'd open the door for 3 quad one wins based on those events (WI, MSU, ILL)...

 

[Northside Hawk]

So you are counting the first round BTT game too?

Let's forget that one for a minute. Neutral court, shouldn't be a killer game based on the scenario I lay out.

Don't you think going 3-2 down the stretch here would put them right on the bubble? Penn State is doable, too. And Illinois in Carver to end the season - you figure the Hawks bring their best effort for that one.

So if they can steal one tonight at Michigan State - huge if - but if they do, we can start to dream a little, can't we?

That'd open the door for 3 quad one wins based on those events (WI, MSU, ILL)...

Here's an interesting oddity. Iowa has crapped many beds on senior night in the Fran era, last year vs Nebraska being the latest example.

Illinois won't be easy under any circumstances and now throw this in.

 

[PCHawk]

Here's an interesting oddity. Iowa has crapped many beds on senior night in the Fran era, last year vs Nebraska being the latest example.

Illinois won't be easy under any circumstances and now throw this in.

We rolled northwestern on senior night a couple years ago in one of the best team performances I've ever seen out of Iowa.

 

[PCHawk]

So you are counting the first round BTT game too?

Let's forget that one for a minute. Neutral court, shouldn't be a killer game based on the scenario I lay out.

Don't you think going 3-2 down the stretch here would put them right on the bubble? Penn State is doable, too. And Illinois in Carver to end the season - you figure the Hawks bring their best effort for that one.

So if they can steal one tonight at Michigan State - huge if - but if they do, we can start to dream a little, can't we?

That'd open the door for 3 quad one wins based on those events (WI, MSU, ILL)...

Step one of beating MSU is complete. We have three quad one games left on the schedule. Get two of them and beat Penn state and I think we are in. We would have four quad 1 wins. Anyone know how that compares to normal bubble teams?

 

[PCHawk]

If we could sneak into the 6 seed in the Big 10 tournament that would giv3 us the best shot at a good run. I think there's a pretty big drop off from Purdue to Illinois and another big drop of from Illinois to everyone else. The 6 gives is a chance at a quad 1 win before we play Illinois and let's us avoid Purdue until the end.

If we go 3-1, we are the 7 seed at worst and the 3 seed at best. The bracket generator has three teams finishing one game ahead of us if we do go 3-1. We have the tie breaker against all three of those teams. Interestingly tho, we don't have the tie breaker in a 4 way tie. But if nebraska falls back into a 5 way tie, we have that tie breaker and end up the 3 seed. Also if we were to win out the 2 seed is still in play. We could end up in a 6 way tie for second place in that scenario. With us getting the tie breaker. That's the plus side of all of our loses being against the bottom of the conference.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

I think even getting one more of the three quad 1s opens things up for the BTT. Can't lay an egg there, but winning a game or two in Minneapolis should put them right in the mix.

Definitely need to split the next four to enter the conversation going into the BTT though.

 

[PCHawk]

I think even getting one more of the three quad 1s opens things up for the BTT. Can't lay an egg there, but winning a game or two in Minneapolis should put them right in the mix.

Definitely need to split the next four to enter the conversation going into the BTT though.

You might be right. 2-2 down the stretch and then make the championship game? It could be enough. We would have 21 wins.

 

[InGoodCo]

It's hard to see - but Iowa is on here.

 

[Hawkboys]

It's hard to see - but Iowa is on here.



View attachment 10711

They have almost as much of a chance to finish losing the last 4 of 5 (including B1G tourney game) as they do of making the tournament

 

[InGoodCo]

They have almost as much of a chance to finish losing the last 4 of 5 (including B1G tourney game) as they do of making the tournament

No argument, but before last night it was so far away you couldn't even fathom it. I still think it's an incredibly tough ask and an uphill battle that is a long shot. Still lots of work to do....

but then ya start looking around at the bubble and you're like, "ok, now I get why"

....before today, Lunardi has had St John's in his next 4 out category - they are 14-12 and 6-9 in the Big East. They aren't gonna make it.

Texas A&M is 15-11 and 6-7 in the SEC - with a 3 game losing streak with their next game on the road at #5 Tennessee and at home vs. #20 SC - they aren't getting in

Nebraska - is currently winless on the road. I can't see them getting in with 0 road wins. They probably get one these last few weeks, but if you're Nebraska, you are not firmly in the dance at this moment.

Butler, Providence and Iowa are kind of in the same spot but Butler has an easier upcoming schedule, but they have dropped 4 of their last 5. Providence has a much harder schedule with 2 top ten teams left to play and against Nova who is fighting for their tournament lives as well.

Utah and Wake - probably both in

Cinci is currently sitting at 9th in the Big 12 and are 5-7 in the b12 - not in without alot of work

Nova - still needs a lot of work. Colorado - lots of work to do....

I guess what I am saying is, Iowa is a large group of teams with work to do and too many variables on the table left to truly know how it will shake out. I think Iowa has played themselves into position where if they split with IL, win PSU and get a couple in the BTT, they're likely going to get in unless all of those teams I listed above suddenly go on a tear as well.

 

[thedukeofearl]

It's hard to see - but Iowa is on here.

Drake used to rule in the Maury John Days

Then This:

Creighton Overwhelms the Number One Connecticut Huskies

The Bluejays are 7-2 against the Huskies since 2020 and 4-0 in Omaha.

Always have liked the Bluejays

 

[thedukeofearl]

No argument, but before last night it was so far away you couldn't even fathom it. I still think it's an incredibly tough ask and an uphill battle that is a long shot. Still lots of work to do....

but then ya start looking around at the bubble and you're like, "ok, now I get why"

....before today, Lunardi has had St John's in his next 4 out category - they are 14-12 and 6-9 in the Big East. They aren't gonna make it.

Texas A&M is 15-11 and 6-7 in the SEC - with a 3 game losing streak with their next game on the road at #5 Tennessee and at home vs. #20 SC - they aren't getting in

Nebraska - is currently winless on the road. I can't see them getting in with 0 road wins. They probably get one these last few weeks, but if you're Nebraska, you are not firmly in the dance at this moment.

Butler, Providence and Iowa are kind of in the same spot but Butler has an easier upcoming schedule, but they have dropped 4 of their last 5. Providence has a much harder schedule with 2 top ten teams left to play and against Nova who is fighting for their tournament lives as well.

Utah and Wake - probably both in

Cinci is currently sitting at 9th in the Big 12 and are 5-7 in the b12 - not in without alot of work

Nova - still needs a lot of work. Colorado - lots of work to do....

I guess what I am saying is, Iowa is a large group of teams with work to do and too many variables on the table left to truly know how it will shake out. I think Iowa has played themselves into position where if they split with IL, win PSU and get a couple in the BTT, they're likely going to get in unless all of those teams I listed above suddenly go on a tear as well.

The opportunity is certainly there

The committee really likes underdogs on a hot streak

The ball is in our court now

 

[NorthKCHawk]

The opportunity is certainly there

The committee really likes underdogs on a hot streak

The ball is in our court now

Its also a good arc for the committee. This is a young team and for most of the season has played to chalk. No big wins. No terrible losses. But, if they can take down a couple more quad 1 wins and win a tourney game here or there, the narrative is that they were a young team that found their footing late. That is much more compelling than a team fading down the stretch.

Still seems like long odds, but not impossible.