Iowa vs. Michigan - Big Ten Tourney - Preview/Prediction

storminspank

storminspank

Justin VanLaere
Iowa MBB – Big Ten Tourney (Rd 1) vs. UM Preview/Prediction | Hawkeye Nation

I know what the consensus will be from most of the people on here (and rightfully so) - here's my prediction, what do you have? And, yes, I am clinically insane... it's true. Hooray unicorns!

Iowa MBB – Big Ten Tourney (Rd 1) vs. UM Preview/Prediction

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Justin VanLaere’s preview/prediction for the Iowa-Michigan game in the first round of the 2010 Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis, IN.
Game Info

Iowa (10-21, 4-14) vs. Michigan (14-16, 7-11)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 164, Michigan – 65
March 11, 2010 • 1:30 p.m. (CST)
Indianapolis, IN • Conseco Fieldhouse
TV: ESPN2 (HD) • Live Stats: hawkeyesports.com
Series Record: Michigan leads 86-57 (Last Meeting, Michigan, 80-78 – OT, Feb. 16, 2010)
Probable Starting Lineups

Michigan
Pos. No. Name Ht. Wt. Yr. Statistical Summary
G 4 Darius Morris 6-4 180 Fr. 4.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, .413 FG%, .644 FT%
G 1 Stu Douglass 6-3 185 So. 6.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.5 apg, .324 FG%, .783 FT%
G 3 Manny Harris 6-5 185 Jr. 17.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 4.1 apg, .416 FG%, .791 FT%
F 0 Zack Novak 6-5 210 So. 7.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.6 apg, .381 FG%, .667 FT%
C 34 DeShawn Sims 6-8 235 Sr. 16.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.1 spg, .492 FG%, .667 FT%
Iowa
Pos. No. Name Ht. Wt. Yr. Statistical Summary
G 3 Cully Payne 6-1 190 Fr. 8.1 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.9 apg, .354 FG%, .627 FT%
G 5 Matt Gatens 6-5 215 So. 12.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.3 apg, .372 FG%, .830 FT%
F 25 Eric May 6-5 225 Fr. 9.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.4 apg, .410 FG%, .667 FT%
F 24 Aaron Fuller 6-6 230 So. 9.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.7 apg, .476 FG%, .676 FT%
C 50 Jarryd Cole 6-7 250 Jr. 8.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 0.5 apg, .571 FG%, .649 FT%
VanLaere Notes

No VLOG for this game.
Live Chat may or may not happen. Check the site closer to game time to find out.
Alright, clean slate. Everyone starts out 0-0 right? Well, not quite… but for Iowa that’s the only way they can look at this thing. After coming off one of the worst regular seasons in Iowa Basketball history, the Hawkeyes have nothing to lose in this tournament. This used to BE Iowa’s tournament, for Christ’s sake. Other than beating the pants out of Iowa, Michigan really hasn’t been that good under Beilein in the Big Ten Tournament. So for the third straight year… whoopie…. Iowa gets Michigan again. Stupid karma.
If you’ve been watching Iowa basketball the past few weeks (I wouldn’t blame you if you haven’t), it feels like Iowa has mailed it in. The Hawkeyes were absolutely annihilated in their two roads games at Wisconsin and at Minnesota. Iowa lost by a combined 62 points in those two games, and couldn’t break 20 in the first halves of either of them. I want to believe that the reason Iowa looked so bad was because Iowa is just a bad road team. Well, that much can’t be disputed. The Hawkeyes are 1-10 on the road. They are a bad, bad road team. Conversely, they are 9-9 at home (still awful, but better nonetheless). Iowa is 0-2 at neutral sites (losing to NCAA Bubble team Wichita State and NCAA team Texas). Michigan, on the other hand, is 1-2 at neutral sites (beating a 16 win Creighton team, losing to NCAA team Marquette and 17 win Alabama team). It’s safe to say neither of these team really play worth a crap away from their home arenas.
Michigan has lost 4 out of 5, with their lone win coming over Minnesota at home. Iowa has lost 5 out 6, with their lone win coming over Indiana at home.
PLAYERS TO WATCH FOR:

Sims and Harris. At this point in the season, if you haven’t seen what these two are capable of against Iowa, you haven’t been watching Iowa Basketball. Let Douglass or Novak beat you. Iowa just needs to stop one of these two to win the game. Problem is, I don’t know if they can.
KEYS TO THE GAME:

  • FRUSTRATE SIMS. The key to Sims’ game is he starts to get on a roll early on and his confidence soars. Hell, why not put in Andrew Brommer to start the game with the express role of bodying up Sims and annoying him? I like the idea, save Cole for mid-first half assuming (and it’s a big assumption) that Brommer wouldn’t pile up 2 or 3 fouls in that time period.
  • EXTRA POSSESSIONS. Biggest key for Iowa is that they haven’t been shooting the ball well lately. They need as many possessions as they can get. Offensive rebounds, limiting turnovers is huge.
  • GET GATENS GOING. When Gatens looks good, Iowa looks good. If he can get a game together remotely like the game he had going at home vs. Indiana, good things will happen. The potential is there, Iowa needs to see it realized.
PREDICTION: Of all the predictions I’ve made this year, this one I have struggled with the most. Let’s face it, Iowa just does not matchup with Michigan very well at all. Beilein has a simply outcoached Lickliter nearly every single time their teams meet. Even in games where Iowa had the win in hand (their last meeting in Carver), Iowa found a way to allow the Wolverines to leave with the win. It does feel like Iowa has given up on the season. I have a little voice in my head that keeps reminding of the force that is DeShawn Sims and what he has done to Iowa in his career. There’s also this place in my heart that just does not want to give up on this Hawkeye squad regardless of how poorly they’ve played these past few weeks. Iowa showed they have what it takes to beat UM last time they played (even though they couldn’t close it out), and I can’t see Conseco Fieldhouse being any more pro-Michigan than Carver was. It’s also very, very tough to beat a team three times in one season unless you are leaps and bounds better as a team. I don’t think Michigan is that far ahead of Iowa to make them immune to that rule of thumb. Michigan will come into the game an 8 point favorite according to the guys out West. I think we’ll see either Iowa win/lose a highly contested match or we’ll see Michigan pull away with a blowout win. I’m throwing up a Hail Mary here with this prediction, and I realize it’s with the heart more than the head, but it is what it is at this point in the season. Iowa’s not ready to mail it in. Iowa 66, Michigan 65
 
Beside Illinois (whom Iowa has yet to play), Michigan remains the only team Iowa has not beaten in the Big Ten Tournament. The Hawkeyes are 0-4 all-time against the Wolverines.
 
storminspank said:
Beside Illinois (whom Iowa has yet to play), Michigan remains the only team Iowa has not beaten in the Big Ten Tournament. The Hawkeyes are 0-4 all-time against the Wolverines.
Click to expand...

And all these games have been in the first game of the tournament for us. Crazy to meet the same team consistently in our first game.
 
Stormin' - while I agree we need to a red-hot Gatens to help provide some offense, I really think at this point that Fuller is more of a key. If he can stay out of foul trouble, pound the glass like he has in a few other games and help provide any sort of significant inside presence and we possibly get Harris or Sims in foul trouble, we stand a chance. To some it may be a snowball's chance but stranger things have happened.
 
God Bless you Stormin for picking the Hawks. I don't know if it will happen, but God Bless You.
 
I hope so, because the hand of God may be the only chance we have, but I guess that is why they play the game.
 
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That was the exact score in my head,Spank. I believe that back in 1965 Michigan was #1 with superstar Cazzie Russell and Iowa somehow found a way to beat them...I think they had Rick Williams,Chris Pervall,and maybe George Peoples.
I still remember listening to those Iowa games with Jim Zabel doing the play by play. Iowa also played UCLA that year who had Walt Hazzard...and won Woodens first NCAA title later that year...I think Iowa lost at the buzzer...some exciting years for Iowa bb...sorry for the tangent...

Iowa played well vs Michigan in CHA,so I do not think it is outside the realm for Iowa to play well again tomorrow. Heard Dakich break it down tonite on BTN...''for michigan, it is all about getting the ball to Sims and Harris...again and again...clear out a side, let those two work together and they will win..'' ''for Iowa, it is about patience on offense,cuz michigan breaks down rather quickly on defense and if Iowa works the ball,they will get open shots''

I do think players usually are loyal to their coach and their could be a ''win one for the gipper'' quality to this game.

Iowa 66 Michigan 65.
 
You can't truly believe that Iowa is going to win this game. You simply can't. You can want it to happen and hope that it happens (like I'm going to), but there is no way you can honestly tell me you believe Iowa will win. Unfortunately, since it's not being played in the friendly confines of Carver, this is a road game. This team is one of the worst road teams I have ever seen at Iowa. I see this one getting out of hand very early unfortunately. I'm usually an optimist, but this is a very very difficult matchup and we just got killed by Wisconsin and Minnesota. Michigan beat Minnesota by like 27 a week ago, FYI. Sorry, but we are dead. I hope I'm wrong, but I know I'm not.
Michigan 81
Iowa 55
 
Again, Spank, I applaud your undying devotion.

But, as stated previously, when you are a 'member of the media' the goggles need to be taken off once in a while.

Iowa is 0-4 all-time against Michigan in the BTT.
Iowa lost its last two games by an average of 31 points.

Unfortunately.....Michigan 68-54
 
Pastel colored unicorns will need to fly out Sims rear end to have Iowa win. I have been pretty spot on the last 3 games. Iowa comes out with some fire and takes an early 7 point lead into the 10 minute mark. Then Michigan starts pounding the ball inside and extends the defense into a trap out of the 1-3-1 and we start turning it over and Fuller picks up #2 foul and Lick sits him down. Michigan goes on a 10-15 point run by the time Fuller gets back....we are down 3 at half time. In the 2nd half Michigan comes out smokin, Fuller gets 3 early...we start to mail it in and get down by 15-20 pts...and never wiggle the rest of the way out. Lick picks up his jacket at the 5 minute mark and just sits there with it till the buzzer. Michigan 72 - Iowa 53.
 
After seeing this team not compete for the last month, I have ZERO reason to believe today will be any different. Lick has lost this team...my only hope is as a team they fight today since this is the last game of they year with a loss.

Michigan 77-58 Iowa.
 
storminspank said:
Iowa MBB – Big Ten Tourney (Rd 1) vs. UM Preview/Prediction | Hawkeye Nation

I know what the consensus will be from most of the people on here (and rightfully so) - here's my prediction, what do you have? And, yes, I am clinically insane... it's true. Hooray unicorns!


Spank-

Hope this isn't the last prediction of the 2009-2010 season!

I think the key to the game is Aaron Fuller and the officials.... If Iowa can get the ball down low to Fuller/Cole maybe they can pick up some cheap fouls and Sims early. I think the true Key to the game is 1. Stopping Sims 1A. Iowa NEEDS TO SHOOT WELL FROM DISTANCE and 2. Hoping Manny Harris is not hot 3. Hoping the other trifecta is not on fire.

I think if Iowa falls behind by 12-15 points early in the game it's over.

I would not be surprised to see Iowa lose by 20, but at the same time I would not be shocked to see Iowa win by 5 points.

I applaud you for putting a score down Spank....

Who that heck knows. Michigan can look flat out terrible, but even when Iowa beats them (once last year at Carver) or almost wins (this year at Carver) Michigan still plays them close.

Who the heck knows!
Click to expand...
 
We are 0-4 against Michigan and this is not the year to break the streak. We don't match up well with the long and athletic teams that have some NBA caliber talent (Sims and Harris). It will be ugly and the Iowa bus wouldn't even need to turn off the engine in the arena parking lot.

Michigan 71
Iowa 54
 
Why do you think that BT tournament will favor Iowa against UM? Last year was the same thing as this year, they whooped us at Mich and we took them to overtime in CHA (difference was we won last year). They humiliated us in the tournament. I hope that doesn't happen again, but I don't have much reason to believe it won't.
I never thought I would say that.
 
Aaron talks Michigan (video from Rob Howe):

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRrwSDRRrTs"]YouTube- Aaron Fuller - HawkeyeInsider.com[/ame]
 
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