Iowa v MSU predictions

Woodbury, Olesani, Basabe, and White will find the going tough in the paint, despite the absence of Payne and Dawson. Sparty will be rotating four very physical wide bodies in Costello, Kaminski, Schilling, and Gauna. Each of those guys has a 15 to 20 pound weight advantage on the tall guys for Iowa. If they get beat on the dribble, these guys will hammer the arms of the Iowa shooters to prevent FGs, because they will have designated guys fouling. They will crash the boards hard and clog the lane. They also have a designated goon in Byrd, a strong 6'7" guy coming off the bench to get rough and get into the shirts of guys who get in the paint.

Woodbury and Olesani play a little soft and will most likely get beat up and then possibly get frustrated and make a lot of fouls themselves. On the other hand, White and Basabe are very tough and wiry and love to mix it up and play rough in the paint. I'm not sure Uthoff will go into in the paint at all, except on fast breaks.

I think MSU will pack it in a little and force Iowa to take shots outside the paint. But Michigan State also has very good defenders on the perimeter, and they can jump and get through screens pretty well. Marble and Gesell will have a tough time on dribble drives.

So, bottom line, this will be an extremely physical game, and I expect a lot of fouls. FT shooting will be critical for Iowa. I hope White and Marble get to the line a lot, because they have been doing well there (Marble lately). If Iowa turns the ball over more than a dozen times, they will be in trouble. If they get beat by more than 5 on the boards, they will likely lose.

Michigan State has been somewhat of a mystery this year. I have seen games where they were completely out of synch in their half court offense and their passing was poor. Then I've seen them in other games where they looked very sharp in their sets and made great passes.

I hope Appling is still hurting a little bit. He seems to be slightly frail and injury prone, but I've also seen him make very strong moves to the hoop. I also hope Valentine doesn't come out of his shooting slump.

It's hard to predict this game, so I'm not. I'm just fired up. I hope the Hawks are more fired up.
 
Looking forward to seeing how Gessel matches up with Appling. MG is starting to put things together. Not sure what was going on during the non conference season but he looked off.

I don't see MSU being about to keep up in a high scoring game. I think they slow it down and make things ugly and hope to win the game on the foul line. Iowa hits just enough FTs to win.
 
Been watching home B1G teams get their own brand of home cooking all season. Seems like we've been on the road all year. Finally it's Iowa's turn. The whistles are going our way and Iowa will triumph.
 
Woodbury, Olesani, Basabe, and White will find the going tough in the paint, despite the absence of Payne and Dawson. Sparty will be rotating four very physical wide bodies in Costello, Kaminski, Schilling, and Gauna. Each of those guys has a 15 to 20 pound weight advantage on the tall guys for Iowa. If they get beat on the dribble, these guys will hammer the arms of the Iowa shooters to prevent FGs, because they will have designated guys fouling. They will crash the boards hard and clog the lane. They also have a designated goon in Byrd, a strong 6'7" guy coming off the bench to get rough and get into the shirts of guys who get in the paint.

Woodbury and Olesani play a little soft and will most likely get beat up and then possibly get frustrated and make a lot of fouls themselves. On the other hand, White and Basabe are very tough and wiry and love to mix it up and play rough in the paint. I'm not sure Uthoff will go into in the paint at all, except on fast breaks.

I think MSU will pack it in a little and force Iowa to take shots outside the paint. But Michigan State also has very good defenders on the perimeter, and they can jump and get through screens pretty well. Marble and Gesell will have a tough time on dribble drives.

So, bottom line, this will be an extremely physical game, and I expect a lot of fouls. FT shooting will be critical for Iowa. I hope White and Marble get to the line a lot, because they have been doing well there (Marble lately). If Iowa turns the ball over more than a dozen times, they will be in trouble. If they get beat by more than 5 on the boards, they will likely lose.

Michigan State has been somewhat of a mystery this year. I have seen games where they were completely out of synch in their half court offense and their passing was poor. Then I've seen them in other games where they looked very sharp in their sets and made great passes.

I hope Appling is still hurting a little bit. He seems to be slightly frail and injury prone, but I've also seen him make very strong moves to the hoop. I also hope Valentine doesn't come out of his shooting slump.

It's hard to predict this game, so I'm not. I'm just fired up. I hope the Hawks are more fired up.

In the paint - Iowa shouldn't have any problems. We were better and deeper when they had their starters IMO. Woodbury isn't soft.

I agree that MSU should force us to shoot from the outside...if this is possible. I think Izzo is too stubborn to do this.
 
Marble and White will both have good games, I just hope they don't save it all for the 2nd half. Look for White to be aggressive going to the hoop and getting to the foul line. I'm not worried about MSUs front court and think Basabe should be able to put up some points/boards.

Iowa needs to take care of the ball, limit penetration from Appling, and always always always know where Harris is. The crowd in Carver will obviously help, and our guys will play with more confidence.

Assuming Payne is out... Iowa 81, MSU 73

i think the line is Iowa -5
 
I always worry when Iowa faces a really physical team. I think a couple of the posts on this thread are instructive: We need to hope the officiating is balanced and unafraid. If Izzo intimidates them, we could be in for a long night. But, I think Iowa eventually wins this game, but likely only by single digits. Iowa is a better basketball team than MSU...and yes, the injuries make that abundantly clear. The best news, for me, is that I get to be in CHA for the game...Go Hawks!
 
Izzo will have his players ready knowing how much we want this game and how big it would be for the Hawks and the BB program. I hope I'm wrong but my gut tells me Izzo will out coach Fran for the win here.

MSU 73
Iowa 64
 

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