Iowa Releases 2013-2014 Hoops Schedule

[ssckelley]

^^^^^^^^^^

Nebraska-Omaha shouldnt affect the RPI because they are Division II, I believe.

Nope, they play D1 basketball. They had an RPI ranking of 285 last season.

Also, Iowa's conference RPI should be stronger this year as well since OSU, MSU and Michigan are back on the schedule two times each.

Yep, I was strictly comparing the non conference schedule. I was really hoping Iowa would avoid the Maryland Eastern Shores that end up with 2-26 type of record. Scheduling games like that kills the RPI.

 

[hawkfan33]

I hope they are considering Central Michigan for that TBD game. It would be neat to see Keno Davis and Kevin Gamble back in Carver. They did lose their top scorer from last season but a bulk of the minutes were played by freshman, so they could be an improved team.

Since non conference RPI was such a huge issue last season I had to look this up:

UNC - Wilmington (9-20)
Nebraska - Omaha (10-19)
Maryland - Eastern Shore (2-26)
TBD
Penn (9-22)
(neutral) Xavier (17-14)
(neutral) *Tennessee (20-12)
(neutral) *UTEP (18-14)
(neutral) ***Kansas (29-5)
(neutral) ***Villanova (19-13)
Notre Dame (25-9)
(neutral) Drake (14-17)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-24)
@ Iowa State (22-11)
Arkansas - Pine Bluff (16-14)

Overall 2012 record 163-220 (.426) using Tennessee and Kansas as potential opponents and using regular season record (RPI record is formulated different). Last year it was 167-229 (.421) so we are not seeing much improvement in the non conference SOS. Where it can help itself is winning the neutral court games and at Iowa State.

So with some of the predictions I have seen flying around you might want to keep in mind Iowa may be in for another challenge at the end of the year with their RPI. Probably will not keep them out of the tournament but could have a huge impact on their seeding.

Just a couple things here, only looking at W/L record isn't the best way to compare the two schedules. Last season the average RPI of the teams we faced non-conf was 216. This year, even being conservative assuming the TBD team has an RPI of 300 and we don't play Kansas and play Villanova instead, the average RPI of our non-conf opponents is up to 187, throw in Kansas instead of Villanova and we're at 173. A 40 place jump is pretty significant and that's not even factoring in that we should have a quality road opponent in Iowa St this year compared to our only true road non-conf opponent being 176th ranked VaTech.

Also, our conference schedule will be tougher as we trade out Michigan, Michigan St, Illinois and Ohio State for Indiana, Penn State, Purdue and Nebraska. Our RPI will not be holding us back this season.

 

[ssckelley]

Just a couple things here, only looking at W/L record isn't the best way to compare the two schedules. Last season the average RPI of the teams we faced non-conf was 216. This year, even being conservative assuming the TBD team has an RPI of 300 and we don't play Kansas and play Villanova instead, the average RPI of our non-conf opponents is up to 187, throw in Kansas instead of Villanova and we're at 173. A 40 place jump is pretty significant and that's not even factoring in that we should have a quality road opponent in Iowa St this year compared to our only true road non-conf opponent being 176th ranked VaTech.

No, see I used to think the RPI rank of our opponents mattered as well and then I had the RPI explained to me. RPI rank is uses your adjusted (I will explain) win percentage (25% of the score), your opponents win percentage (50% of the score), and their opponents win percentage (25% of the score).

The adjusted win percentage is weird to, it counts a win on the home court as a .6 win and a 1.4 loss, neutral games are 1.0, and away games are 1.4 if you win and .6 if you lose. So my win percentages I listed in my post are not 100% accurate but should still be close.

Also, our conference schedule will be tougher as we trade out Michigan, Michigan St, Illinois and Ohio State for Indiana, Penn State, Purdue and Nebraska. Our RPI will not be holding us back this season.

Yep, I agree as I said before I was looking strictly at non conference schedule.

 

[hawkfan33]

No, see I used to think the RPI rank of our opponents mattered as well and then I had the RPI explained to me. RPI rank is uses your adjusted (I will explain) win percentage (25% of the score), your opponents win percentage (50% of the score), and their opponents win percentage (25% of the score).

The adjusted win percentage is weird to, it counts a win on the home court as a .6 win and a 1.4 loss, neutral games are 1.0, and away games are 1.4 if you win and .6 if you lose. So my win percentages I listed in my post are not 100% accurate but should still be close.



Yep, I agree as I said before I was looking strictly at non conference schedule.

I understand how RPI works but unless you want to go all the trouble of adding up the W/L records of our opponent's oppenents from last year and this year, you're leaving out a big part of the puzzle. Looking at the average RPI ranking of the teams we played last year, compared to this year's schedule shows it is a significant step up in quality.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I love your enthusiasm, Windsor.....

I can't help it. I love this team. They've also gotten better every year under Fran. They have the intangibles like team chemistry. The most important thing of all is how many teams not only in the Big 10 but the country can say this.

5 (Olaseni/Woodbury) - Should combine for an easy double/double and have 10 fouls available.
4 (White/Basabe) - 20 and 10 isn't a stretch and have 10 fouls available.
3 (Uthoff/McCabe/Marble some) - Size, scoring, rebounding, defense, fresh legs, 10+ fouls...
2 (Jok/Oglesby/Gesell) - Scoring, passing, defense, 3 point shooting, very fresh legs, 15 fouls...
1 (Marble/Clemmons/Gesell some) - Scoring, ball handling, passing, very fresh legs, defense, 10+ fouls...
Coaching - Fran and very high level assistants...don't underestimate the assistants

 

[1977Hawkeye]

I see this team having a road warrior mentality......12-1 in non-conference with a loss to KU, and 15-3 in the league with losses at MSU, Michigan and OSU.....27-4 overall...#2 seed.

Lol, well I hope you are right! Just get us into the NCAA's with a solid seed (5-7) and I would be pretty happy. Anything above that is gravy..

It's just been so long since Iowa has had a team that is legit Top 15 or Top 10 material that I hesitate to predict too much, but who knows? There's no rule saying Iowa can't do it.

 

[hawkfan33]

Lol, well I hope you are right! Just get us into the NCAA's with a solid seed (5-7) and I would be pretty happy. Anything above that is gravy..

It's just been so long since Iowa has had a team that is legit Top 15 or Top 10 material that I hesitate to predict too much, but who knows? There's no rule saying Iowa can't do it.

Same here, it's a lot easier to go from bad to decent than it is to go from decent to elite. I still think we're missing the top level talent that is required to win the B10. I think our defense and rebounding and depth will keep us in pretty much every game this year, but I think predicting Iowa to win 13,14 games in the conference is overly optimistic. I would be happy with an 11-7 B10 record this year.

 

[bws258]

if we lose 8 conf games, I will be very disappointed

12-6 at worst to live up to expectations for me

 

[MeatMan]

i heard that OOC SOS is only going to be around 190ish this year with the schedule. last year Iowa got tons of crap cause their OOC SOS was something like 215. that's not really an improvement in scheduling. though we do have a much tougher in-conference slate.

 

[hawkfan33]

i heard that OOC SOS is only going to be around 190ish this year with the schedule. last year Iowa got tons of crap cause their OOC SOS was something like 215. that's not really an improvement in scheduling. though we do have a much tougher in-conference slate.

You can't really determine the strength of a schedule until the teams actually play some games. The average rpi of our opponents based on last year's results is about 40 spots better, a significant jump.

 

[tm3308]

i heard that OOC SOS is only going to be around 190ish this year with the schedule. last year Iowa got tons of crap cause their OOC SOS was something like 215. that's not really an improvement in scheduling. though we do have a much tougher in-conference slate.

That can change significantly depending on who we play in Atlantis. Most people are taking the average RPI (from last season) of Tennessee and UTEP for the second round, and we have no idea who the third game will be against. Playing Tennessee and (hopefully) Kansas would give the SOS a solid boost.

And in any case, the conference SOS will also be higher this season than it was a year ago. If we played last year's OOC slate and then had gone 9-9 with the conference schedule from this season, we would have been dancing. And if Iowa improves even half as people are thinking they will, we'll get at least a couple true signature wins in conference play.

 

[ssckelley]

I understand how RPI works but unless you want to go all the trouble of adding up the W/L records of our opponent's oppenents from last year and this year, you're leaving out a big part of the puzzle. Looking at the average RPI ranking of the teams we played last year, compared to this year's schedule shows it is a significant step up in quality.

But if the non conference opponents do not end up with a better record than last year then it is still going to have a huge negative impact on Iowa's RPI. I do not bother looking up the opponent's opponents records because I am sure they are not good either. There is a reason why these teams end up ranked 200+ RPI, not only does their record suck but so does their opponents record. How many quality teams can a MD-Eastern Shore have on their schedule?

 

[WindsorHawk]

Same here, it's a lot easier to go from bad to decent than it is to go from decent to elite. I still think we're missing the top level talent that is required to win the B10. I think our defense and rebounding and depth will keep us in pretty much every game this year, but I think predicting Iowa to win 13,14 games in the conference is overly optimistic. I would be happy with an 11-7 B10 record this year.

I won't be disappointed if we go 11-7 this year. It shows more improvement and results in a trip to the NCAA Tournament. But...I'm predicting 14-4 and don't think it is at all unrealistic. I still believe the last team to have this much talent, balance and depth lost to UNLV 1 game short of the Final 4...back in the day.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I won't be disappointed if we go 11-7 this year. It shows more improvement and results in a trip to the NCAA Tournament. But...I'm predicting 14-4 and don't think it is at all unrealistic. I still believe the last team to have this much talent, balance and depth lost to UNLV 1 game short of the Final 4...back in the day.

I also don't recall the last Iowa team to have 8 players which have started multiple games in their careers on the same roster.

 

[enmaster]

The remaining November OOC game has been announced, per the AD website.
November 17, vs. Abilene Christian in CHA. Preliminary Round of the Battle 4 Atlantis.

Iowa Official Athletic Site - Men's Basketball

 

[MisterLucky]

Here is an ESPN writer's take on the non-conference schedules of all the B1G Ten team. We fall somewhere in the middle.

Nonconference schedule analysis: Big Ten - ESPN

 

[JHHawk]

Iowa is in the tier just below the top schedule teams (Wis,Mich,MSU). They are bunched with Illini and NW. I think the key to the strength of the slate is the Atlantis tourney....we need to make the final vs KU and we will be fine.

 

[H8IAST8]

Iowa is in the tier just below the top schedule teams (Wis,Mich,MSU). They are bunched with Illini and NW. I think the key to the strength of the slate is the Atlantis tourney....we need to make the final vs KU and we will be fine.

Strength of schedule will not be an issue this year

 

[okeefe4prez]

That can change significantly depending on who we play in Atlantis. Most people are taking the average RPI (from last season) of Tennessee and UTEP for the second round, and we have no idea who the third game will be against. Playing Tennessee and (hopefully) Kansas would give the SOS a solid boost.

And in any case, the conference SOS will also be higher this season than it was a year ago. If we played last year's OOC slate and then had gone 9-9 with the conference schedule from this season, we would have been dancing. And if Iowa improves even half as people are thinking they will, we'll get at least a couple true signature wins in conference play.

The real irony of this is that had Tennessee managed to beat UTEP in Atlantis, we would have beaten them early in the season and had the RPI edge to miss them in the First Round game. How Tennessee can lose to UTEP and still make the tournament is just amazing.