Iowa Program Trends (recruiting, as well as efficiency rankings)

C

CP87

Well-Known Member
Iowa has been trending up on recruiting, which led me to look up recent year's rankings. Which then led me to look up other rankings to get a sense of how the program has been trending.

The efficiency ranks below are all from College Football Outsiders. Recruiting rankings are from 247.

The decision to go back to 2013 was pretty arbitrary. I was working backward from present, and after seeing 3 straight years with recruiting rankings in the 50's from 2015-2013, it seemed pretty obvious that this was the baseline the program was climbing from.

1608159876589.png

* - this ranking will change (likely drop) after the late-signing period when the top un-committed players sign; their 2020 class was ranked 24th after early-signing
** - the year BF took over as OC
# - the year Levar Woods took charge of ST (did not technically become coordinator until 2017)
## - that ranking was #2 prior to the miscues in the Wisconsin game
 
Great data, thanks. There was a dedicated renewed emphasis by KF after 2012 and 2014 which has paid off. Maybe their best string of recruiting classes.
 
It seems like this coaching staff does better with 3 star recruits. I'll never forget the 2005 recruiting class, it was ranked in the top 10 and featured 5 star recruits like Dace Richardson, Dan Doering, and Tony Moeaki. It seemed like Iowa was turning into a blue blood program and I had visions of national championships dancing in my head. But those 5 star recruits flamed out and the real stars of that recruiting class turned out to be Pat Angerer and Marshal Yanda (3 star recruits). Ever since then I've stopped looking at rankings.
 
Will we see Mr. Jones returning kick-offs next year?
 
Ian Pike Hammer said:
Will we see Mr. Jones returning kick-offs next year?
Click to expand...

I would think so.

Some other interesting names:

Known WR: Tracy (if they were willing to risk ISM back there, should be willing to do same for him)

Unknown WR: Diante Vines and Quavon Matthews returned kicks in high school

RB: Gavin Williams (big, but with legit sprint speed)

DB: Terry Roberts (returned kicks and punts in HS, as senior had 42 rec for 1,237 yds and 16 TD, 29.5 yds/rec, on offense; he might be too important on coverage teams to also put him as returner); Riley Moss (returned punts and kicks in HS)

Newcomers: Arland Bruce, Keegan Johnson

And if he returns: Daviyon Nixon
 
CP87 said:
I would think so.

Some other interesting names:

Known WR: Tracy (if they were willing to risk ISM back there, should be willing to do same for him)

Unknown WR: Diante Vines and Quavon Matthews returned kicks in high school

RB: Gavin Williams (big, but with legit sprint speed)

DB: Terry Roberts (returned kicks and punts in HS, as senior had 42 rec for 1,237 yds and 16 TD, 29.5 yds/rec, on offense; he might be too important on coverage teams to also put him as returner); Riley Moss (returned punts and kicks in HS)

Newcomers: Arland Bruce, Keegan Johnson

And if he returns: Daviyon Nixon
Click to expand...
Fantastic

Doubt they trust a true frosh off the bat. Seems like they have alternated PR and KR as of late. I like the Gavin Williams pick.
 
CP87 said:
I would think so.

Some other interesting names:

Known WR: Tracy (if they were willing to risk ISM back there, should be willing to do same for him)

Unknown WR: Diante Vines and Quavon Matthews returned kicks in high school

RB: Gavin Williams (big, but with legit sprint speed)

DB: Terry Roberts (returned kicks and punts in HS, as senior had 42 rec for 1,237 yds and 16 TD, 29.5 yds/rec, on offense; he might be too important on coverage teams to also put him as returner); Riley Moss (returned punts and kicks in HS)

Newcomers: Arland Bruce, Keegan Johnson

And if he returns: Daviyon Nixon
Click to expand...
Nixon coming back would be as significant as Garza coming back. Only I think it’s about 1,000 times less likely.
 
ssckelley said:
It seems like this coaching staff does better with 3 star recruits. I'll never forget the 2005 recruiting class, it was ranked in the top 10 and featured 5 star recruits like Dace Richardson, Dan Doering, and Tony Moeaki. It seemed like Iowa was turning into a blue blood program and I had visions of national championships dancing in my head. But those 5 star recruits flamed out and the real stars of that recruiting class turned out to be Pat Angerer and Marshal Yanda (3 star recruits). Ever since then I've stopped looking at rankings.
Click to expand...
Didn't we start 9-0 and win an Orange Bowl when those guys were seniors?
 
Ree4 said:
Didn't we start 9-0 and win an Orange Bowl when those guys were seniors?
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Guys like Moeaki, Eubanks, and Dace Richardson were all highly-rates recruits who played pivotal roles that season. Trey Stross was solid outside of one unfortunate outing as well.
 
ssckelley said:
It seems like this coaching staff does better with 3 star recruits. I'll never forget the 2005 recruiting class, it was ranked in the top 10 and featured 5 star recruits like Dace Richardson, Dan Doering, and Tony Moeaki. It seemed like Iowa was turning into a blue blood program and I had visions of national championships dancing in my head. But those 5 star recruits flamed out and the real stars of that recruiting class turned out to be Pat Angerer and Marshal Yanda (3 star recruits). Ever since then I've stopped looking at rankings.
Click to expand...
The 3 that you mentioned there were all snake bitten with injuries.
When they played healthy, Dace and Tony were 5*s, Dan played like a solid 4* when healthy and not getting flagged for false starts.
 
AFAcademyHawk said:
Guys like Moeaki, Eubanks, and Dace Richardson were all highly-rates recruits who played pivotal roles that season. Trey Stross was solid outside of one unfortunate outing as well.
Click to expand...
Eubanks and Terry were the only ones of the 5/4*s that didn't have the injury bug - except for Jake.
 
Ree4 said:
Didn't we start 9-0 and win an Orange Bowl when those guys were seniors?
Click to expand...
The ones that stuck around for 5 years did but for me the first 3 seasons were a bit of a disappointment. Remember Iowa was coming off 3 top ten finishes and a close call in 2002.

I probably was not thinking Natty's but Rose Bowl and Big Ten titles had crossed my mind.
 
GesterHawk said:
The 3 that you mentioned there were all snake bitten with injuries.
When they played healthy, Dace and Tony were 5*s, Dan played like a solid 4* when healthy and not getting flagged for false starts.
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I remember, so are you disagreeing with me that the class fell short of expectations? They were 7-5, 6-7, and 6-6 the first 3 years they were on campus. 2008 was a decent year with a top 20 finish and a Outback Bowl win and there were a few around from that class for the 2009 Orange Bowl season.
 
I read somewhere that since 2015, Wisconsin has 54 wins. Iowa has 53 wins in that same span. Granted...we went 12-0 in 2015, but doesn't it seem there would be a larger difference in total wins? Maybe it was just that they beat us 4 or the last 5.
 
WinOneThisCentury said:
I read somewhere that since 2015, Wisconsin has 54 wins. Iowa has 53 wins in that same span. Granted...we went 12-0 in 2015, but doesn't it seem there would be a larger difference in total wins? Maybe it was just that they beat us 4 or the last 5.
Click to expand...

I think one thing that skews our perception is when Wisky hasn't won the west (2018 and 2020), it has been NW. So we have more wins than Wisky in 3 of the 6 seasons in that span (2015, 2018, 2020), but we only have 1 Division title to their 3 (and NWs 2).

NW has won 45 games over this stretch.

And of course, Wisky played 3 fewer games than us during this season (to date). Their 2 wins vs. our 6 this year makes a pretty big difference when looking at a 6 year stretch.
 
WinOneThisCentury said:
I read somewhere that since 2015, Wisconsin has 54 wins. Iowa has 53 wins in that same span. Granted...we went 12-0 in 2015, but doesn't it seem there would be a larger difference in total wins? Maybe it was just that they beat us 4 or the last 5.
Click to expand...

This gets me thinking: how many more SHOULD Iowa have won over this span?

The "Iowa always loses games they should win" trope is pretty tired, that is true of every single team. It is very rare for a team to never get upset, and Iowa has one of the best records as a favorite over this span (46-5, 90.2% win%, 4th best in the nation since 2015 behind only Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State). That said, there are a few losses over this span that really feel like they shouldn't have happened.

Losses as big favorite:
NDSU (2016)
I think we were double-digit favorites against NW for some of those losses, but NW wins as a dog more than anyone in the nation, take those spreads with a grain of salt

Losses where we were pretty clearly the better team but shot ourselves in the foot:
2018 Wisc (2 punt-return TOs, terrible red zone execution)
2018 PSU (goal-line INT)
2018 NW (sat Fant entire second half)
2020 Purdue (100 yds penalties, 2 fumbles in opponent territory)

We probably lucked into a few wins over that span, as well. But I feel like this team probably SHOULD have at least 2-3 more wins, and at least 1 more division title (2018).
 
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ssckelley said:
The ones that stuck around for 5 years did but for me the first 3 seasons were a bit of a disappointment. Remember Iowa was coming off 3 top ten finishes and a close call in 2002.

I probably was not thinking Natty's but Rose Bowl and Big Ten titles had crossed my mind.
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Oh no doubt, the 2006 and 2007 seasons were godawful, I think I blacked out everything that happened during those two years except for the 07 game vs MSU that BTN seems to replay everyday. You know, the one where JC6 was like 6-20 passing for like 30 yards that we somehow managed to win.

I guess a question that one could ask is how soon would you expect a good recruiting class to impact the success of a team? Even with these recruits I would think it would take a year or two at a developmental school like Iowa.
 
Ree4 said:
Oh no doubt, the 2006 and 2007 seasons were godawful, I think I blacked out everything that happened during those two years except for the 07 game vs MSU that BTN seems to replay everyday. You know, the one where JC6 was like 6-20 passing for like 30 yards that we somehow managed to win.

I guess a question that one could ask is how soon would you expect a good recruiting class to impact the success of a team? Even with these recruits I would think it would take a year or two at a developmental school like Iowa.
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I think it matters where the stars are distributed as to how fast a class can really make a difference. If you are looking at oline and TEs, like 05, it will take a few years.

If the stars are further away from the ball, the class will contribute sooner. I think this is what we are seeing the last 4ish years. Better recruits further from the ball are playing sooner and lifting the program.
 
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