Iowa Northwestern Predictions

STILLBUSTER

STILLBUSTER

Well-Known Member
Hawks - Northwestern keys & predictions

I see Hawks as having 2 reasonable chances at W's the rest of the season. First one is tomorrow, @ NWU.

Defensive key: Hawks must play man.
Can match up athletically and out-physical them. Any zone will get shredded by the back-cuts and / or bombarded by 3's.
May needs to Lock down and rough up Shurna (still battling a bum ankle and 1 game back from concussion). Harrass Thompson (Cartwright) and body-up Mirkovic (Basabe, Cole or Brommer). These 3 also need to keep their heads on a swivel for that back-cut to the basket.

Offensive keys:
1) Attack inside / out. Basabe, Brommer, Cole need to look to shoot every time it comes inside and take it to Mirkovic. Marble & May need to go to the hoop to clean up. This is not a great rebounding team so second-chance points / points in the paint are crucial.
2) Gatens has to hit the open looks over their zone. He's had 3 crappy games in a row - he's due for his one good game in the cycle.

Over the last 5 years, I've gone from cheering for to simply hating Northwestern more than any other opponent -- mostly because they have made Iowa their personal Washington Generals. I'm going to say Iowa recovers from their "one-step back" against Minny and gets their last road W of the year: 71 - 66.
 
Re: Hawks - Northwestern keys & predictions

Yes, I would love to beat NW on Thursday also. Agree that despite the shellacing they gave us in Carver, they can be beaten by the Hawks. I wish they had not shot the 2 for 21 from the arc last weekend vs PSU....probably will not have that kind of game two in a row. They killed us from the arc in Carver(9 of 12 in first half) which destroyed our hopes that nite.

Now, as for matchups....Crawford got off big time last game vs the Hawks...I think we need Eric May on him. Shurna is struggling right now with that high ankle sprain,and cannot drive to the hoop much..so maybe we can get away with Mel chasing him to the perimeter. Cole did not get out to him last time. Have Cole push on Mirkovic. Shove him around. Same with Brommer on Curletti.
Matt on Cobb,who is playing well lately.
Bryce on Juice...who was 0 for 7 from the arc vs PSU last weekend...hope he stays cold,but not likely.
I agree with the man to man...but they do that ball screen all day out front and the backdoors a lot,so I trust Fran to change up defenses enough to keep them out of sorts....if they are struggling shooting wise again...a zone might be fine for some possessions,as they do not rebound well enough to make us pay.

I think they will ramp up their 1-3-1 zone a bit more than usual after they see how Minny shut down Iowa in a zone. That means we need to offensively rebound....and shoot the ball better.

Go Hawks....beat NW!!
 
Re: Hawks - Northwestern keys & predictions

I think your assessment is spot on, but as much as I'd like to predict a victory in Evanston, I just can't. I see Shaggy Doo and the rest of the guys in ugly purple raining 3s at will again and the Hawks unable to respond. NU 76, Iowa 60.
 
Re: Hawks - Northwestern keys & predictions

They'll play zone and Iowa's offense will sputter.
Iowa will play zone and NW will drain a lot of treys.

I hope I am wrong on that, but the last time out in Iowa City, the Hawks were killed by the long ball. And unfortunately, with how both teams play defense, the three-ball is going to likely decide how it ends.

I'd love to see Iowa run some sort of zone offense, get a big to the FT line, or have Cartwright/Marble slash a bit more. Passing is key against the zone, we'll see if Iowa is up to the challenge.
 
Re: Hawks - Northwestern keys & predictions

NW has always featured that 1-3-1 zone,so the open spots are down in the corners,which is why we need May,Gatens and McCabe to be on fire down there if they get a look.
The problem with that zone is not getting trapped up on top by long-armed NW guys.
Throwing over the top to get the ball to Mel or Cole with the tiny Juice on them would be optimim. Juice is the runner at the bottom of that 1-3-1. But,you need to get the ball over the top first...Jake Kelly was tall enough to accomplish that a couple of years ago in Carver,but shorter pgs can struggle with it.

Now, NW has not run that zone that much against Iowa recently,so we will see how Carmody wants to approach Iowa. Reports are now that Shurna had his best practice in a month on Tuesday and his high ankle sprain is finally receding...great,just in time for the Hawks. I think the prospect of Iowa coming to town after losing 5 of their last 6 could bring NW players off their deathbed....Markotullio is said to be experiencing a miraculous recovery from his sprained thumb from last weekend also,and Jeff Ryan could possibly be healthy enough to play for the first time since december 23....go figure.
 
Re: Hawks - Northwestern keys & predictions

I agree Spank that we need to attack the zone better. I was disappointed w/ how we attacked MN's 2-3. Gotta go High Post/Short Corner to attack that. We didn't really do either. The Gophers' length was definitely a problem; pretty hard to emulate that length/height in practice. A few times Cole would get the ball at the FT line and then look like a boy among men. NW will go 1-3-1 so we'll have to move the ball, drive gaps, hit the baseline 3 (please, Matty!), and look opposite/weak side for a lob (hopefully May/Mel). Go Hawks! It would be a huge game. I have a feeling we will compete, possibly even win. Before we played NW at our place, I knew we were in trouble. I look for better things tonight.
 
Cole in foul trouble early, NU pulls away with a 22 point lead that Iowa closes to 12 to lose 64-52. I am asked to leave the arena in the waning seconds of the game, perhaps with a police escort, after having yet another trip end with the "Just Like Football" chant that sends me into a temporary bout of insanity.
 
God this is tough to figure out. Both teams had a terrible last game. Iowa was playing well before Minnesota and NW has been falling apart the last couple weeks. If the game was at CHA I would say Iowa would win by 10, but since it is in NW I have to say that we either win a nail biter or lose 72 to 65.
 
Those nerds are in the basketball lab, drawing up ways to dissect Iowa's defense once again...The "Just like football" chants will ring from all 8,000 in attendance and Iowa will fall 77-61, prompting Todd Lickliter to ask the question,"They scored 61...and LOST???"...
 
Re: Hawks - Northwestern keys & predictions

storminspank said:
They'll play zone and Iowa's offense will sputter.
Iowa will play zone and NW will drain a lot of treys.

I hope I am wrong on that, but the last time out in Iowa City, the Hawks were killed by the long ball. And unfortunately, with how both teams play defense, the three-ball is going to likely decide how it ends.

I'd love to see Iowa run some sort of zone offense, get a big to the FT line, or have Cartwright/Marble slash a bit more. Passing is key against the zone, we'll see if Iowa is up to the challenge.
Click to expand...

No freakin way this game goes like the one in IC. If 8 of their first 9 shots made are 3's and I think they may have even made something like 6 or 7 of them in a row before missing then it will be a long night again but I just can't see NW doing that again.
 
I don't think NW can possibly play as well as last time, and we cannot possibly play as bad. Bring those thoughts together and I am going 69-63 Hawks.
 
I am going to go with a gut feeling. Hawks not happy with last game vs minny. Pumped up and win one for Kirk as payback. May, Gatens and Basabe go off. Iowa 79-74.
 
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