Iowa Hoops RPI, Sagarin, Ken Pomeroy etc

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
RPI (using ESPN's replication): 54. SOS of 151. Biggest RPI win so far is v W Kentucky, whose RPI is 67. Iowa State's RPI is 122...that doesn't bode well for the Clones given the dearth of ranked opponents in the Big 12. Unless they just go off in that league this year. UNI is 183 in the RPI. So Car State is 313 and Coppin State is 316 (out of 347). Those would rate as the second and third worst opponents Iowa has faced all year, with Tex Pan-Am being the worst at 332.

For the Big Ten, Michigan is #2, Illinois 7, Minnesota 11, Indiana 12, Ohio State 30, Michigan State 47, Iowa 54, NW 77, Nebraska 91, Wisconsin 118, Penn State 150, Purdue 176. Their current last four out bracketology has Virginia (138), Stanford (69), Florida State (158 and 5-4) and Tennessee (119 and 4-3). Virginia is 8-2 and has played the 294th 'toughest' schedule per their numbers. That stuff doesn't make sense, especially considering they and Florida State are in the ACC. They also have VT at 111 RPI. Not sure I buy that, either.

Ken Pomeroy: 55th, which is good for 9th in the Big Ten. Ranks Iowa's schedule at 312. He still has Purdue at 51 at 4-5. Six Big Ten teams in his Top 18, with Illinois at 33 (then Purdue, then Iowa). Pomeroy is now picking Iowa to go 18-13, and 8-10 in the Big Ten. He is picking Iowa to win their last three non-conference games then starting Big Ten play 0-7. He gives Iowa a 6% chance to win at Indiana, 12% at Michigan, 14% at MN, 15% at Wisconsin, 16% home v Indiana FWIW.

Sagarin: Has Iowa at 55, 8th out of Big Ten teams (has Wisconsin at 24, MSU 28). Ranks Iowa's schedule at 307.
 


I don't know how any bracketology would make sense at this point in the year. Lets look in feb.
 


These rankings are all screwed up until you get a few games into the conference schedule. RPI has UNI ranked 183 while Pomeroy has them at 81.

I see Pomeroy also has Gardner Webb at 170. That loss would have hurt big time. There is a slim chance they will be able to move up from that number.
 


Starting out 0-7 in league play would be tough to swallow. I know our first 1/3rd slate of games in the B1G is tough, but I would have to imagine we'd at least win 1 of those first 7.
 




JonDMiller said:
Ken Pomeroy: 55th, which is good for 9th in the Big Ten. Ranks Iowa's schedule at 312. He still has Purdue at 51 at 4-5. Six Big Ten teams in his Top 18, with Illinois at 33 (then Purdue, then Iowa). Pomeroy is now picking Iowa to go 18-13, and 8-10 in the Big Ten. He is picking Iowa to win their last three non-conference games then starting Big Ten play 0-7. He gives Iowa a 6% chance to win at Indiana, 12% at Michigan, 14% at MN, 15% at Wisconsin, 16% home v Indiana FWIW.
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No way Iowa goes 0-7 to start Big Ten play. My bet is they'll go 3-4 but I think they do no worse than 2-5.
 


0-7 start pretty much ends our chances of dancing. I wouldn't be surprised if we beat Michigan State, Wisconsin, Northwestern or Purdue though. A win against Indiana in the opener would make me poop all over the place.
 






jesterapparel said:
No way Iowa goes 0-7 to start Big Ten play. My bet is they'll go 3-4 but I think they do no worse than 2-5.
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Agree, with a heavy lean toward 3-4 (@ NwU, Wisc & @ Purdue) 4-3 if are "on" vs MSU (home).

I'd also bet 9-9 in B1G, leaving them at 20-11 or 19-12 (if get tripped by UNI). Due to horrible s.o.s., weak record vs top 50 and finishing 5-5 in last 10, would need to win 2 BTT to dance.

All that's basically chalk (beating Nebraska, PSU, NwU and Purdue). Upset Illannoy or Minny (both at home) over last month of season and Hawks are in regardless of BTT.
 




JonDMiller said:
Great link Spank!
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So when you look at this right now, by the time the non-con is complete, we will have played 5 teams in the top 100, 5 teams 300 and below and 3 teams between 101 and 299. The mean ranking of that schedule is 194 and the median is 200.

In all honesty, given the B1G slate, I don't have any issue whatsoever with that kind of schedule. Especially when you consider that Indiana is #3, Michigan is #5, OSU is #8, Minnesota is #9, Illinois is #14, MSU is #25, and Wisconsin is #44 and we play those 7 teams a total of 10 times.
 




ssckelley said:
These rankings are all screwed up until you get a few games into the conference schedule. RPI has UNI ranked 183 while Pomeroy has them at 81.

I see Pomeroy also has Gardner Webb at 170. That loss would have hurt big time. There is a slim chance they will be able to move up from that number.
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Preconference rankings are somewhat suspect at times. Stormin's was very good. However ESPN Bracketology posted yesterday had Gardner-Webb, Wichita State and Western Kentucky in the South Region......

Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN

Rather early in the season but still interesting......
 


JonDMiller said:
RPI (using ESPN's replication): 54. SOS of 151. Biggest RPI win so far is v W Kentucky, whose RPI is 67. Iowa State's RPI is 122...that doesn't bode well for the Clones given the dearth of ranked opponents in the Big 12. Unless they just go off in that league this year. UNI is 183 in the RPI. So Car State is 313 and Coppin State is 316 (out of 347). Those would rate as the second and third worst opponents Iowa has faced all year, with Tex Pan-Am being the worst at 332.

For the Big Ten, Michigan is #2, Illinois 7, Minnesota 11, Indiana 12, Ohio State 30, Michigan State 47, Iowa 54, NW 77, Nebraska 91, Wisconsin 118, Penn State 150, Purdue 176. Their current last four out bracketology has Virginia (138), Stanford (69), Florida State (158 and 5-4) and Tennessee (119 and 4-3). Virginia is 8-2 and has played the 294th 'toughest' schedule per their numbers. That stuff doesn't make sense, especially considering they and Florida State are in the ACC. They also have VT at 111 RPI. Not sure I buy that, either.

Ken Pomeroy: 55th, which is good for 9th in the Big Ten. Ranks Iowa's schedule at 312. He still has Purdue at 51 at 4-5. Six Big Ten teams in his Top 18, with Illinois at 33 (then Purdue, then Iowa). Pomeroy is now picking Iowa to go 18-13, and 8-10 in the Big Ten. He is picking Iowa to win their last three non-conference games then starting Big Ten play 0-7. He gives Iowa a 6% chance to win at Indiana, 12% at Michigan, 14% at MN, 15% at Wisconsin, 16% home v Indiana FWIW.

Sagarin: Has Iowa at 55, 8th out of Big Ten teams (has Wisconsin at 24, MSU 28). Ranks Iowa's schedule at 307.
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Nitpicking here, but being the underdog in the first 7 games doesn't mean that the most likely outcome is to go 0-7. Given the five percentages you mentioned, the odds of Iowa going 0-5 in those games is 50.8% (0.94 x 0.88 x 0.86 x 0.85 x 0.84 = 0.508). Throw in the other two games, regardless of the odds, and the most likely outcome is that Iowa wins at least one of the first seven even if they're the underdog in each individual game.
 


jacknicholson said:
Preconference rankings are somewhat suspect at times. Stormin's was very good. However ESPN Bracketology posted yesterday had Gardner-Webb, Wichita State and Western Kentucky in the South Region......

Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN

Rather early in the season but still interesting......
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Wichita State may get in without winning their conference tournament, it would not surprise me to see them give Creighton a run for the Missouri Valley. But the other 2 they must have them projected to win the auto bid. Western Kentucky could really help Iowa as their next 3 games are against Murray State, VCU, and Louisville. All are on the road and if they were to win 1 or 2 of those games their rankings would move up fast.

Hopefully come February all of this is still relevant and we are still having these conversations.
 


If Western Kentucky were to win all three of those some how, that would make me as excited as Iowa winning a big game.
 


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