Iowa favored

B

blubberhawk

Well-Known Member
Seems strange. Iowa -4.5 on the road against a ranked team?
Iowa just lost at home as a favorite to an unranked team.
 
Metrics love Iowa this year. Bart Torvik has Iowa a 1.7 pt favorite, Sagarin has Iowa a 6 point favorite, etc.
 
blubberhawk said:
Seems strange. Iowa -4.5 on the road against a ranked team?
Iowa just lost at home as a favorite to an unranked team.
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Couple things...

1) When you say "unranked team," you're referring to the AP poll. Human polls are horseshit. Math based ratings usually agree with a comparatively small standard deviation.

2) Massey's composite ranking combines 34 polls, almost all mathematically-based. Iowa ranks 19th and ISU ranks 37th

3) Massey and Sagarin (the two most analyzed of the group by far) rank Iowa/ISU 10/27 and 11/62 respectively.

4) Small sample size so far, but Vegas doesn't keep the lights on by losing money.

So the real question you should be asking yourself is when the mathematical models and Vegas all agree on Iowa being better, why is ISU ranked 16th in the AP poll? Not the other way around...

Does this mean ISU is going to lose? Not at all. But with all available information Iowa would win more than 50 out of 100, there's no doubt about that.
 
Fryowa said:
So the real question you should be asking yourself is when the mathematical models and Vegas all agree on Iowa being better, why is ISU ranked 16th in the AP poll? Not the other way around...
Click to expand...

I think this is an easy answer honestly. Historically the AP poll cares only about results, wins and losses.

Several of the algorithms really don't care about wins and losses, Kenpom specifically. It's just trying to predict who would win in upcoming matchups.
 
BryceC said:
I think this is an easy answer honestly. Historically the AP poll cares only about results, wins and losses.

Several of the algorithms really don't care about wins and losses, Kenpom specifically. It's just trying to predict who would win in upcoming matchups.
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So then I think you've answered your original question, "Why is Iowa favored?"

Iowa is favored because Vegas and virtually all statistically based models predict Iowa to win.
 
Ree4 said:
Should assign him one to avoid confusion. I'll throw my suggestion out there:
Click to expand...
O3DHIA5.gif
 
Fryowa said:
Couple things...

1) When you say "unranked team," you're referring to the AP poll. Human polls are horseshit. Math based ratings usually agree with a comparatively small standard deviation.

2) Massey's composite ranking combines 34 polls, almost all mathematically-based. Iowa ranks 19th and ISU ranks 37th

3) Massey and Sagarin (the two most analyzed of the group by far) rank Iowa/ISU 10/27 and 11/62 respectively.

4) Small sample size so far, but Vegas doesn't keep the lights on by losing money.

So the real question you should be asking yourself is when the mathematical models and Vegas all agree on Iowa being better, why is ISU ranked 16th in the AP poll? Not the other way around...

Does this mean ISU is going to lose? Not at all. But with all available information Iowa would win more than 50 out of 100, there's no doubt about that.
Click to expand...
I repeat. One of the most screwed up betting lines I have seen in a while..
 
Fryowa said:
Couple things...

1) When you say "unranked team," you're referring to the AP poll. Human polls are horseshit. Math based ratings usually agree with a comparatively small standard deviation.

2) Massey's composite ranking combines 34 polls, almost all mathematically-based. Iowa ranks 19th and ISU ranks 37th

3) Massey and Sagarin (the two most analyzed of the group by far) rank Iowa/ISU 10/27 and 11/62 respectively.

4) Small sample size so far, but Vegas doesn't keep the lights on by losing money.

So the real question you should be asking yourself is when the mathematical models and Vegas all agree on Iowa being better, why is ISU ranked 16th in the AP poll? Not the other way around...

Does this mean ISU is going to lose? Not at all. But with all available information Iowa would win more than 50 out of 100, there's no doubt about that.
Click to expand...
There aint no way in hell iowa would beat ISU more then 50 out of 100 times this year. And i mean by using the exact same models. No changing anything.
 
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