Iowa favored

blubberhawk

Well-Known Member
Seems strange. Iowa -4.5 on the road against a ranked team?
Iowa just lost at home as a favorite to an unranked team.
 

BryceC

Well-Known Member
Metrics love Iowa this year. Bart Torvik has Iowa a 1.7 pt favorite, Sagarin has Iowa a 6 point favorite, etc.
 

Fryowa

Administrator
Seems strange. Iowa -4.5 on the road against a ranked team?
Iowa just lost at home as a favorite to an unranked team.
Couple things...

1) When you say "unranked team," you're referring to the AP poll. Human polls are horseshit. Math based ratings usually agree with a comparatively small standard deviation.

2) Massey's composite ranking combines 34 polls, almost all mathematically-based. Iowa ranks 19th and ISU ranks 37th

3) Massey and Sagarin (the two most analyzed of the group by far) rank Iowa/ISU 10/27 and 11/62 respectively.

4) Small sample size so far, but Vegas doesn't keep the lights on by losing money.

So the real question you should be asking yourself is when the mathematical models and Vegas all agree on Iowa being better, why is ISU ranked 16th in the AP poll? Not the other way around...

Does this mean ISU is going to lose? Not at all. But with all available information Iowa would win more than 50 out of 100, there's no doubt about that.
 

BryceC

Well-Known Member
So the real question you should be asking yourself is when the mathematical models and Vegas all agree on Iowa being better, why is ISU ranked 16th in the AP poll? Not the other way around...

I think this is an easy answer honestly. Historically the AP poll cares only about results, wins and losses.

Several of the algorithms really don't care about wins and losses, Kenpom specifically. It's just trying to predict who would win in upcoming matchups.
 

Fryowa

Administrator
I think this is an easy answer honestly. Historically the AP poll cares only about results, wins and losses.

Several of the algorithms really don't care about wins and losses, Kenpom specifically. It's just trying to predict who would win in upcoming matchups.
So then I think you've answered your original question, "Why is Iowa favored?"

Iowa is favored because Vegas and virtually all statistically based models predict Iowa to win.
 

Fryowa

Administrator
Should assign him one to avoid confusion. I'll throw my suggestion out there:
 

blubberhawk

Well-Known Member
Couple things...

1) When you say "unranked team," you're referring to the AP poll. Human polls are horseshit. Math based ratings usually agree with a comparatively small standard deviation.

2) Massey's composite ranking combines 34 polls, almost all mathematically-based. Iowa ranks 19th and ISU ranks 37th

3) Massey and Sagarin (the two most analyzed of the group by far) rank Iowa/ISU 10/27 and 11/62 respectively.

4) Small sample size so far, but Vegas doesn't keep the lights on by losing money.

So the real question you should be asking yourself is when the mathematical models and Vegas all agree on Iowa being better, why is ISU ranked 16th in the AP poll? Not the other way around...

Does this mean ISU is going to lose? Not at all. But with all available information Iowa would win more than 50 out of 100, there's no doubt about that.
I repeat. One of the most screwed up betting lines I have seen in a while..
 

beavdawg8216

Well-Known Member
Couple things...

1) When you say "unranked team," you're referring to the AP poll. Human polls are horseshit. Math based ratings usually agree with a comparatively small standard deviation.

2) Massey's composite ranking combines 34 polls, almost all mathematically-based. Iowa ranks 19th and ISU ranks 37th

3) Massey and Sagarin (the two most analyzed of the group by far) rank Iowa/ISU 10/27 and 11/62 respectively.

4) Small sample size so far, but Vegas doesn't keep the lights on by losing money.

So the real question you should be asking yourself is when the mathematical models and Vegas all agree on Iowa being better, why is ISU ranked 16th in the AP poll? Not the other way around...

Does this mean ISU is going to lose? Not at all. But with all available information Iowa would win more than 50 out of 100, there's no doubt about that.
There aint no way in hell iowa would beat ISU more then 50 out of 100 times this year. And i mean by using the exact same models. No changing anything.
 
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