Interesting Kirk Ferentz Buyout Read

One thing about the next Iowa head coach .....he better be an offensive coach. Diaco does not qualify. This is the clear trend in both college and NFL head coach hirings.....go offense. This is the offensive era, and guys like Chip Kelly who have built a better mousetrap and can score big are the hot prospects. At an Iowa, scoring is always a premium, because we have few native skill players who can take it to the house. We need the next coach to be like the Boise St coach or a Chip Kelly clone...someone who can scheme his way beyond our talent shortfall. But, it is a pipedream...KF is not going anywhere. I am not prepared to concede that Iowa attendance will fall to 65k....and there is a big chance that the next hire will be a no-name guy who will not fill those seats.

The problem with this is that Big Ten teams also need to be built to win in November.
 
wow, people are against Diaco? Looks like he's gotten results to me, and we know he's a Hawk.
 
wow, people are against Diaco? Looks like he's gotten results to me, and we know he's a Hawk.

I'm for the guy we have in there right now. If he were gone, I'd be fine with talking to Diaco, but I ain't gonna look at other gals while I'm still married to my wife. Loyalty is dang near as scarce as wins in Iowa City right now.
 
wow, people are against Diaco? Looks like he's gotten results to me, and we know he's a Hawk.

I personally don't care if the next coach is a hawk. Diaco seems odd. Please see the few times he has spoken in public as evidence of this. There are plenty of ND people who think he's safely entrenched as their defensive coordinator because he doesn't come across as head coaching material in public and is assumed to interview poorly.

I don't think his resume is all that exciting. If he weren't a former player, I doubt anybody around here would be clamoring for his services.
 
Hmmm... I remember the same excitement that was in Hawkeyeland when Iowa courted a certain young coach named SA ... :) ... Sure, anyone could have written this article. And it is easy to say "my sources tell me that..." ... His sources could be his mom or oldest brother who attended Iowa for one year and flunked out.

The overriding factor here is people are talking. National and locally. When you get a divided fan base things quickly turn South. Kirk finishes .500 this season and next season -- then he will be gone.

Finish .500 this year and sneak out 7 wins next year will buy him more time. Personally, I think it is just time for a change. Being any one place for 15 years is a long time in today's world. Kirk didn't forget how to coach, etc. Sometimes a fresh start for all parties can just be good.

I love what Kirk has done for the program. But I think his glory days at Iowa are behind him. Much like Mac Brown at Texas. It just might be time to part ways. Of course, the parting of ways won't be cheap for Iowa.

As for Diaco ... I like the background and the ties to Iowa. But other than that, I am not convinced he is the next obvious choice. There are lots and lots of coordinators out there. And yes, he was D coordinator at ND when it appeared in the national title game. But, he was also D coordinator for a ND that just got ripped by Michigan a week ago.

Sure, Diaco could make a great head coach some day. But I am not 100 percent sure Iowa would turn the reigns over to someone with no head coaching experience. Who knows ... It makes the debate interesting. My gut tells me next year will be Kirk's last. A program can't move forward with a divided fan base.
 
Finish .500 this year and sneak out 7 wins next year will buy him more time.

My gut tells me next year will be Kirk's last. A program can't move forward with a divided fan base.
1. He won't finish 500 this year, but should win 7 next year. He'll be off the hot seat. Not with me, but for most of HN. 2. The fan base isn't much divided. HN is still strongly behind him and will continue to be next year after he wins 7 games.
 
One other important detail is missing from this. This is on the assumption the new coach will work for free.

No offense intended here....but math is NOT your strong suit.

Look at it this way.....If Iowa keeps Ferentz and attendance averages 65,000 fans for the next 6 years, then it will cost the university $41 million.....$21 million in lost ticket/concession/seat licenses and $20 million in KF's salary. If, however, they let him go after this year and we go back to attendance levels from just a couple years ago and we pay the new coach, say, $2.5 million per year, then it will cost the university $32 million over the next 6 years.....$17 million for KF's buyout and $15 million for the new coach. So by these calculations, the university will be ahead by about $9 million over a 6 year period.

Now, obviously there are 2 big assumptions here....1)Attendence averages 65,000 fans/game over the next 6 years under KF and 2) The hiring of a new coach brings the attendence back to about 70,000 fans/game. In my opinion, because of "Ferentz Fatigue", assumption #1 has a better than 50% chance of happening. In fact, I'd say that it's probably closer to 75%. The big "what if" is the new coach. If done right, I think attendence could go back to essential sell-outs over the next 6 years. But, as we saw with Lickliter....even the best laid plans don't always work out. But that's what Barta is paid to do....to make those kinds of analysis.
 
"Reliable sources close to the Hawkeyes football program..."
That is, a janitor in the UIHC.


"One other source that is extremely close to the program..."
That is, a Cambus driver.
 
The author thinks Ferentz is a hell of a coach? Apparently he has not watched any Iowa games in the past 5 years. There is 0 buzz around Iowa football, in fact there is an anti-buzz. "When does basketball start" is a question that comes up often and that is beyond bizarre given the trials and tribulations of Iowa hoops. Football is the money maker and it cannot suffer another dismal year, which we I am absolutely convinced we will have simply because KF refuses to hire quality assistants and upgrade the program to a competitive level.
 
Now, obviously there are 2 big assumptions here....1)Attendence averages 65,000 fans/game over the next 6 years under KF and 2) The hiring of a new coach brings the attendence back to about 70,000 fans/game. In my opinion, because of "Ferentz Fatigue", assumption #1 has a better than 50% chance of happening. In fact, I'd say that it's probably closer to 75%. The big "what if" is the new coach. If done right, I think attendence could go back to essential sell-outs over the next 6 years. But, as we saw with Lickliter....even the best laid plans don't always work out. But that's what Barta is paid to do....to make those kinds of analysis.

What are peer schools to Iowa that have made three great coaching hires in a row? I'm telling you guys, odds are the next coach is a dud of Walden-esque proportions.
 
First, let's assume that if Iowa keeps KF as coach that average attendance falls to 65,000/game. That's nearly 6,000 unsold tickets. If you put the average price at $75 (that's taking into account the lower cost for student tickets, the standard cost of $55 for a "regular" ticket, and the higher cost of a sideline ticket that includes seat licensing), then you are looking at $450,000 in lost ticket/seat license revenue per game. Multiply that number by 7 home games and you're at $3,150,000. In addition, I'm guessing that the average concession per fan is $15. I'm sure that's low, but let's use it anyway. That's an additional $90,000/game in lost concessions multiplied by 7 home games comes to $630,000. Figure a 50% margin after taking away the cost of food plus any royalties and that's $315,000 per year in lost concession revenue to the university. Total lost gameday revenue per year comes to $3,465,000. Multiply that number times the 6 years left on his deal after this year and that comes to $20,790,000 in total lost revenue from attendance dropping to 65,000/game. That doesn't account for lost donations, lost ad revenue, etc, etc. To me, if it costs the University almost $21M to keep him, but $17M to let him go, then to me it's a no-brainer.....you terminate him after this season if things haven't turned around.
Look at it this way.....If Iowa keeps Ferentz and attendance averages 65,000 fans for the next 6 years, then it will cost the university $41 million.....$21 million in lost ticket/concession/seat licenses and $20 million in KF's salary. If, however, they let him go after this year and we go back to attendance levels from just a couple years ago and we pay the new coach, say, $2.5 million per year, then it will cost the university $32 million over the next 6 years.....$17 million for KF's buyout and $15 million for the new coach. So by these calculations, the university will be ahead by about $9 million over a 6 year period.

Now, obviously there are 2 big assumptions here....1)Attendence averages 65,000 fans/game over the next 6 years under KF and 2) The hiring of a new coach brings the attendence back to about 70,000 fans/game. In my opinion, because of "Ferentz Fatigue", assumption #1 has a better than 50% chance of happening. In fact, I'd say that it's probably closer to 75%. The big "what if" is the new coach. If done right, I think attendence could go back to essential sell-outs over the next 6 years. But, as we saw with Lickliter....even the best laid plans don't always work out. But that's what Barta is paid to do....to make those kinds of analysis.

I was told there would be no math.
 
What are peer schools to Iowa that have made three great coaching hires in a row? I'm telling you guys, odds are the next coach is a dud of Walden-esque proportions.

Jerry Burns 8-15-1 Was coach when limited substitution football ended.
Ray Nagel 11-22-2
Frank Lauterbur 3-22-1
Bob Commings 13-27
Hayden Fry Scholarship limits reduced for football and standard for all conferences
Kirk Ferentz

Perspective of fans born after 1978 is a lot different than those born earlier.

There are some new ncaa academic requirements ahead in 2016 that will make a large number of freshman recruits ineligible to play and possibly practice. Ferentz and staff are already adjusting recruiting for those new standards.
 
Hmmm... I remember the same excitement that was in Hawkeyeland when Iowa courted a certain young coach named SA ... :) ... Sure, anyone could have written this article. And it is easy to say "my sources tell me that..." ... His sources could be his mom or oldest brother who attended Iowa for one year and flunked out.

The overriding factor here is people are talking. National and locally. When you get a divided fan base things quickly turn South. Kirk finishes .500 this season and next season -- then he will be gone.

Finish .500 this year and sneak out 7 wins next year will buy him more time. Personally, I think it is just time for a change. Being any one place for 15 years is a long time in today's world. Kirk didn't forget how to coach, etc. Sometimes a fresh start for all parties can just be good.

I love what Kirk has done for the program. But I think his glory days at Iowa are behind him. Much like Mac Brown at Texas. It just might be time to part ways. Of course, the parting of ways won't be cheap for Iowa.

As for Diaco ... I like the background and the ties to Iowa. But other than that, I am not convinced he is the next obvious choice. There are lots and lots of coordinators out there. And yes, he was D coordinator at ND when it appeared in the national title game. But, he was also D coordinator for a ND that just got ripped by Michigan a week ago.

Sure, Diaco could make a great head coach some day. But I am not 100 percent sure Iowa would turn the reigns over to someone with no head coaching experience. Who knows ... It makes the debate interesting. My gut tells me next year will be Kirk's last. A program can't move forward with a divided fan base.

Florida and Florida State both hired coaches that didn't have any head coaching experience and they both seem to be doing pretty good. But I agree with a previous poster regarding needing an offensive minded guy. The game of football is changing fast where offenses are way ahead of defenses. I still think Bielema is the first guy I would call. I used to think Bob Stoops but Stoops is now in his mid 50's, has made millions of dollars and probably doesn't have a lot to prove anymore. We need a young, up and coming coach that will bring fire back to the program. It's been proven that Iowa can win. We offer a very loyal fan base, a program that is in the top 15 in the country in athletic budget, a traveling fan base, selling out Kinnick on a regular basis, a great home field advantage, a great renovated stadium, new practice facility and we pay our coach elite money. Iowa can sell to a lot of coaches out there. Yes, it is very hard to recruit to Iowa but we offer a lot.
 
I'm hoping coach Ferentz can turn it around. I have to agree that he has gave us some great yrs being the head man. But the last couple of seasons have gotten stale. The recurting has been down and now its starting to show. Maybe a new coach would be the way to go that's saying if he don't turn it around this season. Which I really hope he does
 
Heard Jon on the radio today. He was explaining how no matter what happens The University of Iowa must pay KF the $17 million or whatever the amount left is. The only new expense is the new coach.

If you let the fans get too apathetic (see basketball) you may lose attendance for a much longer period of time. A different way of looking at it.
 
One thing about the next Iowa head coach .....he better be an offensive coach. Diaco does not qualify. This is the clear trend in both college and NFL head coach hirings.....go offense. This is the offensive era, and guys like Chip Kelly who have built a better mousetrap and can score big are the hot prospects. At an Iowa, scoring is always a premium, because we have few native skill players who can take it to the house. We need the next coach to be like the Boise St coach or a Chip Kelly clone...someone who can scheme his way beyond our talent shortfall. But, it is a pipedream...KF is not going anywhere. I am not prepared to concede that Iowa attendance will fall to 65k....and there is a big chance that the next hire will be a no-name guy who will not fill those seats.

Names don't fill seats unless you have a crappy program desperate for any kind of buzz it can get. Iowa never had that problem. wins and an exciting team do fill seats...but again...ticket sales isn't the problem at IOWA.

As for needing to hire an offensive coach. Ferentz coached his entire career on the offensive side of the ball. Nuff said. Barry Alvarez was a defensive coach. Nuff said...again. Bobby Stoops was defensive coach...he managed to win a NC shortly after becoming a HC. I think you get the point.

While Diaco is a Defensive coach...he's also probably smart enough to understand that a dynamic offense is important...and hire a guy who will run one. But most importantly...LET HIM RUN IT!
 
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While Diaco is a Defensive coach...he's also probably smart enough to understand that a dynamic offense is important...and hire a guy who will run one.
Newsflash - If we're paying a $17 million buyout, the budget for offensive coordinators will have us longing for the days of Greg Davis.
 
O'Keefe (the coach, not you) could have probably done the job... had he not been neutered by Ferentz. One only need look at the stats his team at Allegheny put up.

It won't take huge $$, just a guy who's hungry and forward-thinking. In short: the opposite of Ferentz. And IOWA would be a great place for a guy like that to make his name.

BUT... Our biggest obstacle following the buyout...will be...

THE DREADED COMMITTEE !!!!

THE COMMITTEE!!!
 
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