Interesting Kirk Ferentz Buyout Read

Mark my words. Even IF Iowa fired Ferentz and everyone wanted Diaco, the feminist wing of the search committee that would be appointed would find a way to crater it. Be it foot dragging when we needed to make an offer (by tying the expenditure to repainting the pink locker room or something) or finding some lady who says Diaco looked at her wrong in the chow line at Hillcrest in September of 1992, something will go wrong and then by the time we make our next move we'll be looking around at position coaches in the NFL. "Oh, here's one, wide receiver coach from the Dolphins and he'll take the job for $750k." How's that gonna sit with y'all?
 
The math on this is easy after making a few assumptions.

First, let's assume that if Iowa keeps KF as coach that average attendance falls to 65,000/game. That's nearly 6,000 unsold tickets. If you put the average price at $75 (that's taking into account the lower cost for student tickets, the standard cost of $55 for a "regular" ticket, and the higher cost of a sideline ticket that includes seat licensing), then you are looking at $450,000 in lost ticket/seat license revenue per game. Multiply that number by 7 home games and you're at $3,150,000. In addition, I'm guessing that the average concession per fan is $15. I'm sure that's low, but let's use it anyway. That's an additional $90,000/game in lost concessions multiplied by 7 home games comes to $630,000. Figure a 50% margin after taking away the cost of food plus any royalties and that's $315,000 per year in lost concession revenue to the university. Total lost gameday revenue per year comes to $3,465,000. Multiply that number times the 6 years left on his deal after this year and that comes to $20,790,000 in total lost revenue from attendance dropping to 65,000/game. That doesn't account for lost donations, lost ad revenue, etc, etc. To me, if it costs the University almost $21M to keep him, but $17M to let him go, then to me it's a no-brainer.....you terminate him after this season if things haven't turned around.
 
If KF leaves I'm still not sure what the case is for Diaco. I don't think anybody has any idea how he'd be as a head coach. I still like Bielema because he would almost certainly win at Iowa. He's an excellent recruiter with a proven offensive scheme that works in the Big Ten. Diaco would be further down on my list.
 
SpiderRico said:
The math on this is easy after making a few assumptions.

First, let's assume that if Iowa keeps KF as coach that average attendance falls to 65,000/game. That's nearly 6,000 unsold tickets. If you put the average price at $75 (that's taking into account the lower cost for student tickets, the standard cost of $55 for a "regular" ticket, and the higher cost of a sideline ticket that includes seat licensing), then you are looking at $450,000 in lost ticket/seat license revenue per game. Multiply that number by 7 home games and you're at $3,150,000. In addition, I'm guessing that the average concession per fan is $15. I'm sure that's low, but let's use it anyway. That's an additional $90,000/game in lost concessions multiplied by 7 home games comes to $630,000. Figure a 50% margin after taking away the cost of food plus any royalties and that's $315,000 per year in lost concession revenue to the university. Total lost gameday revenue per year comes to $3,465,000. Multiply that number times the 6 years left on his deal after this year and that comes to $20,790,000 in total lost revenue from attendance dropping to 65,000/game. That doesn't account for lost donations, lost ad revenue, etc, etc. To me, if it costs the University almost $21M to keep him, but $17M to let him go, then to me it's a no-brainer.....you terminate him after this season if things haven't turned around.
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whoa...
 
okeefe4prez said:
Mark my words. Even IF Iowa fired Ferentz and everyone wanted Diaco, the feminist wing of the search committee that would be appointed would find a way to crater it.
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Wow! Count me as being impressed. I had thought that you were a feminized guy. Glad to know you are not.;)
 
SpiderRico said:
The math on this is easy after making a few assumptions.

First, let's assume that if Iowa keeps KF as coach that average attendance falls to 65,000/game. That's nearly 6,000 unsold tickets. If you put the average price at $75 (that's taking into account the lower cost for student tickets, the standard cost of $55 for a "regular" ticket, and the higher cost of a sideline ticket that includes seat licensing), then you are looking at $450,000 in lost ticket/seat license revenue per game. Multiply that number by 7 home games and you're at $3,150,000. In addition, I'm guessing that the average concession per fan is $15. I'm sure that's low, but let's use it anyway. That's an additional $90,000/game in lost concessions multiplied by 7 home games comes to $630,000. Figure a 50% margin after taking away the cost of food plus any royalties and that's $315,000 per year in lost concession revenue to the university. Total lost gameday revenue per year comes to $3,465,000. Multiply that number times the 6 years left on his deal after this year and that comes to $20,790,000 in total lost revenue from attendance dropping to 65,000/game. That doesn't account for lost donations, lost ad revenue, etc, etc. To me, if it costs the University almost $21M to keep him, but $17M to let him go, then to me it's a no-brainer.....you terminate him after this season if things haven't turned around.
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Okay, can anyone who understands logic point out what is missing in this analysis?

I'll take a stab at it. You are assuming that the next coach is going to sell the stadium out. For a program like Iowa, hiring two legendary coaches in a row is difficult, finding a third is going to border on the impossible. You hire a guy who winds up being hated by our irrational fan base, like Alford was, and then you've blown a hole in Iowa's revenue model. Football usually takes a LONG time to turn back around after a bad hire.
 
hwk23 said:
If KF leaves I'm still not sure what the case is for Diaco. I don't think anybody has any idea how he'd be as a head coach. I still like Bielema because he would almost certainly win at Iowa. He's an excellent recruiter with a proven offensive scheme that works in the Big Ten. Diaco would be further down on my list.
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There is no case for Diaco. None. My Badger friends all claim that Bielema is not a good recruiter (though I disagree). The Badger dudes all claim that Barry is the guy out meeting HS coaches and BSing with kids' dads and stuff and that his legend in Wisconsin is what keeps the talent level steady.
 
okeefe4prez said:
Okay, can anyone who understands logic point out what is missing in this analysis?

I'll take a stab at it. You are assuming that the next coach is going to sell the stadium out. For a program like Iowa, hiring two legendary coaches in a row is difficult, finding a third is going to border on the impossible. You hire a guy who winds up being hated by our irrational fan base, like Alford was, and then you've blown a hole in Iowa's revenue model. Football usually takes a LONG time to turn back around after a bad hire.
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One other important detail is missing from this. This is on the assumption the new coach will work for free.
 
There are no sources and there are no negotiations. Much to my chagrin, Kirk will be back next year.
 
okeefe4prez said:
Okay, can anyone who understands logic point out what is missing in this analysis?

I'll take a stab at it. You are assuming that the next coach is going to sell the stadium out. For a program like Iowa, hiring two legendary coaches in a row is difficult, finding a third is going to border on the impossible. You hire a guy who winds up being hated by our irrational fan base, like Alford was, and then you've blown a hole in Iowa's revenue model. Football usually takes a LONG time to turn back around after a bad hire.
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I've tried to explain this many times already this year. I should just print what you wrote and keep it in my pocket to show anyone who disagrees with me when I say KF won't be fired after this season.
 
I love the idea of taking a flyer at Diaco after the last few seasons, but I am going to file this write up under "quite dubious".
 
Hard to know how seriously to take this, but when you start hearing things like this, it makes me think that there is something there. Odds of it happening, I don't know. Would it take a 2-10 season? 5-7? Beats me. But I do think that KF's seat is warming up. He can't survive more than another year or two of what we saw last season IMO.
 
One thing about the next Iowa head coach .....he better be an offensive coach. Diaco does not qualify. This is the clear trend in both college and NFL head coach hirings.....go offense. This is the offensive era, and guys like Chip Kelly who have built a better mousetrap and can score big are the hot prospects. At an Iowa, scoring is always a premium, because we have few native skill players who can take it to the house. We need the next coach to be like the Boise St coach or a Chip Kelly clone...someone who can scheme his way beyond our talent shortfall. But, it is a pipedream...KF is not going anywhere. I am not prepared to concede that Iowa attendance will fall to 65k....and there is a big chance that the next hire will be a no-name guy who will not fill those seats.
 
So you folks are going to buy a story from a word press produced website with a domain name of majoronion.com, which is operated by a Mizzou journalist student named Danny Regan? Wow, just wow.
 
eyekwah said:
So you folks are going to buy a story from a word press produced website with a domain name of majoronion.com, which is operated by a Mizzou journalist student named Danny Regan? Wow, just wow.
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The guy's article had fewer spelling and grammatical errors than most of Tork's articles, so yeah, I'll go with it.
 
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