A lot of the problem with interpreting the refining data is that there's no clear cut method for determining what's included in capacity. There's a lot of capacity out there right now not being considered because it got shut down during the germ and hasn't been restarted yet. That capacity can go online quickly relative to new construction, and it will once price and demand cross each other.
It's the same thing with steel. During covid tons of mills and service centers shut down due to demand and the price when ballistic. The AMM for HRCQ coils shot up to record levels over a dollar almost instantly, and now that covid shutdown plants have slowly started to come back online the AMM has gradually slid back to $.57 as of this morning. The gradual slide is because (like gasoline/diesel), most of the steel milling capacity is owned by 3 giants. They know the market isn't sustainable, but they're going to get as much margin out of it as they can for as long as they can. The result is that steel is way down from where it was during the germ hangover, but it's going to be more expensive than it was prior for a fairly long time. The same thing will happen with gas/diesel.
There's a "new normal" being established, which is common for every commodity at varying points across history for varying reasons. It's going to change the economy, but it's not going to tank it.
What people need to be watching more than fuel is agriculture. The stuff going on across the pond is going to do some seriously funky shit to our economy for a long time. Luckily the US is waaaaay agriculturally secure and will be for as long as anyone here will be alive (even with climate change), but the rest of the world is going to be in serious trouble with the Russo-Ukraine issues and that will affect our economy more than fuel. For whatever one thinks of it's downfalls, capitalism has driven HUGE advances in ag technology and efficiencies, and we are going to be very, very thankful for that in the next 5 years. People can cry all they want about the US being the new major oil power, but being the agricultural leviathan we are is much more important to our stability.
I totally agree on ag, but you have to remember that the entire ag infrastructure runs on diesel fuel. And packaging relies heavily on oil to make plastics.
Refineries are way more complex than steel production. You shut a refinery off for two years and you are going to basically have to rebuild the whole damned thing. The ones that got closed were on the cusp of needing major rehabs anyway. Oil is corrosive as all hell and folks who were staring down the barrel of a rehab just said "fuck it" because they are expensive as hell. Plus you have to get a bunch of knucklescraper government fucks to give you all kinds of permits to run a refinery because they are really dirty and there are a bunch of ideologues at each level of government who are vehemently opposed to oil who are going to be a pain in the balls to deal with.