If we miss the dance this year.....

The seat won't be hot. It will be more about how next year's class plays and how the 2016 class shapes up.
 
A 10 year extension is much more likely. :) As long as it is another "March Situation" he should be golden under the current administration.
 
cant see him being shown the door this year, maybe next year if he doesn't get things in order.
 
The only way Fran's seat will be even close to warm, is if the team fails to sniff the bubble this season and next. I don't think that will be a problem.
 
nationalchamps said:
How hot is Fran's seat next year? I think it's NCAA tourney or he gone, and GarBar should be right behind him.
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I am hopeful to make the tournament this year and next also. If we fail this year and next year then Fran's seat will definately be on the hot side especially given that next year will be his best recruited class along with Uthoff on the transfer. Next year is a MUST for Fran.
 
Fran won't be going anywhere - he is recruiting way too hard not to hit the home run and like so many have already said - it only takes one star player to turn this around.
 
JG10Hawk said:
The only way Fran's seat will be even close to warm, is if the team fails to sniff the bubble this season and next. I don't think that will be a problem.
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^^^^^^^^This is the correct answer. This is where the Iowa basketball program is at. Hopefully, as a fan my patience will be rewarded down the road.
 
Oh for god's sake. Are we really talking about Fran being on the hot seat. Sometimes I wonder why in the world I read this shite.
 
hawkforlife9 said:
He's already made it once. Can't really expect him to make a deep run every year.
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Shouldn't you be more concerned with Tom Herman taking the Houston job? One less coach off the fan wishlist to replace Rhoads next year.
 
We would have to find a REALLY good coach to insure the program moved the right direction after the hire. Between Fran being such a hard recruiter and how good the conference is right now it would be tough to bring someone new in that would do better. It's different in football where the program is slowly moving in the wrong direction, we are barely a .500 team anymore, and how weak the conference is.
 
doclee said:
Oh for god's sake. Are we really talking about Fran being on the hot seat. Sometimes I wonder why in the world I read this shite.
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If he doesn't make the tournament this year, why shouldn't he be? That would be 1 NCAA in the first 5 years. He has all his players, he made the tourney in year 4, but not in year 5 in this hypothetical, so why shouldn't it be warm?
 
deanvogs said:
If he doesn't make the tournament this year, why shouldn't he be? That would be 1 NCAA in the first 5 years. He has all his players, he made the tourney in year 4, but not in year 5 in this hypothetical, so why shouldn't it be warm?
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I can understand a fan thinking like this but it would be incredibly short sighted for an AD to. An AD needs to take into account a lot more than just the wins and loses. He needs to decide if the success, or lack there of, is sustainable.

That's were he got into trouble with Kirk's contract. He looked blindly at the wins instead of looking how he got them. 2009 was awesome but was it the kind of year that warrented a huhe extension? When you can barely beat UNI and Arkansas State, is winning that many games in a year sustainable?

On the flip side, is Fran's lack of success sustainable? He had a top 10 team put together that collapsed. Is that something that will happen every time? There's no way to answer for sure but as an AD would you really want to cut loose a coach that took us from the gutter to a top 10 ranking? In iowa that's not easy to do. Fran all but locked up a diamond in the rough that shined too soon and ended up in Kentucky. That kind of bad luck isn't sustainable.

If I were the AD I would definitely have my eyes open if we don't make the tourney. But I would also look at everything else and want to give Fran some leway for the success he has had with the setbacks that occurred.
 
Fran signed an extension through 19-20. He's not going anywhere and he shouldn't be. The question is, who do you think Iowa can get to come in and replace him and be more successful? Fran cleaned up a mess in his first 2 years. This is year 3 of his own guys. 25 wins in one season,a tourney appearance the next and currently projected as an 8 seed, for what it's worth. Give him time to keep building.
 
GVhawk10 said:
Fran signed an extension through 19-20. He's not going anywhere and he shouldn't be. The question is, who do you think Iowa can get to come in and replace him and be more successful? Fran cleaned up a mess in his first 2 years. This is year 3 of his own guys. 25 wins in one season,a tourney appearance the next and currently projected as an 8 seed, for what it's worth. Give him time to keep building.
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Hopefully, Iowa will have a good year this year. I'm interested to see what Fran does with his last scholarship, and how he does with the young guys on the team and the added athleticm for next year. They could be really good.
 
PCHawk said:
I can understand a fan thinking like this but it would be incredibly short sighted for an AD to. An AD needs to take into account a lot more than just the wins and loses. He needs to decide if the success, or lack there of, is sustainable.

That's were he got into trouble with Kirk's contract. He looked blindly at the wins instead of looking how he got them. 2009 was awesome but was it the kind of year that warrented a huhe extension? When you can barely beat UNI and Arkansas State, is winning that many games in a year sustainable?

On the flip side, is Fran's lack of success sustainable? He had a top 10 team put together that collapsed. Is that something that will happen every time? There's no way to answer for sure but as an AD would you really want to cut loose a coach that took us from the gutter to a top 10 ranking? In iowa that's not easy to do. Fran all but locked up a diamond in the rough that shined too soon and ended up in Kentucky. That kind of bad luck isn't sustainable.

If I were the AD I would definitely have my eyes open if we don't make the tourney. But I would also look at everything else and want to give Fran some leway for the success he has had with the setbacks that occurred.
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At the end of the day a team is what it's record says it is. Lasts years team was a fringe NCAA team, that went 2-9 in games decided by 2 possessions or less. It was NOT a top 10 team, it was a fringe NCAA team, cause you look at the entire body of work, not just 1/2 or 2/3 or 9/10, but the ENTIRE body of work. Fran has had 1 team that was a surefire lock for the NCAA tourney in 5 years now, and that almost slipped away. I'm sorry, but that simply isn't getting it done. 5 years is all the time a football coach should get, a BB coach should get 3 years is all. It is sooooo much easier to turn around a BB program than it is a football program, as you only need a player or 2 to do so.

I actually kind of felt this way after year 3 to be honest, that was a team that was good enough to be a NCAA team, but they didn't get it done. I was patient, cause I realize year 4, he had a pretty loaded team, but they really let last year slip away. Yet I totally understand that as well, with what Fran was going through with his son. Now in year 5, once again, this is a team that could/should make the tourney. If he once again doesn't make it, in my mind that is 2 teams (this years and '12-'13 NIT team) that should have made it, but didn't, and the '13-'14 team underachieved big time with the finish they had.

I get that not many agree with me on this. I had actually not even wanted to go here and actually say anything.....then I figured why not? I'm not a negative guy, I realize we have a ton of time left this year, and I'm not convince this isn't a NCAA team, but I'm also not convinced it is. The goal is the NCAA tourney, and it is about results.....I'm out of "Almosts" come year 5. No more "almost" getting to the NCAA. No more "almost" getting a top recruit. In year 5 the almosts should be a think of the past, and it should be about results. For me as a fan, if we aren't a NCAA team at the end of this year, I have no faith that Fran can get it done in years 6 and beyond.
 
deanvogs said:
At the end of the day a team is what it's record says it is. Lasts years team was a fringe NCAA team, that went 2-9 in games decided by 2 possessions or less. It was NOT a top 10 team, it was a fringe NCAA team, cause you look at the entire body of work, not just 1/2 or 2/3 or 9/10, but the ENTIRE body of work. Fran has had 1 team that was a surefire lock for the NCAA tourney in 5 years now, and that almost slipped away. I'm sorry, but that simply isn't getting it done. 5 years is all the time a football coach should get, a BB coach should get 3 years is all. It is sooooo much easier to turn around a BB program than it is a football program, as you only need a player or 2 to do so.

I actually kind of felt this way after year 3 to be honest, that was a team that was good enough to be a NCAA team, but they didn't get it done. I was patient, cause I realize year 4, he had a pretty loaded team, but they really let last year slip away. Yet I totally understand that as well, with what Fran was going through with his son. Now in year 5, once again, this is a team that could/should make the tourney. If he once again doesn't make it, in my mind that is 2 teams (this years and '12-'13 NIT team) that should have made it, but didn't, and the '13-'14 team underachieved big time with the finish they had.

I get that not many agree with me on this. I had actually not even wanted to go here and actually say anything.....then I figured why not? I'm not a negative guy, I realize we have a ton of time left this year, and I'm not convince this isn't a NCAA team, but I'm also not convinced it is. The goal is the NCAA tourney, and it is about results.....I'm out of "Almosts" come year 5. No more "almost" getting to the NCAA. No more "almost" getting a top recruit. In year 5 the almosts should be a think of the past, and it should be about results. For me as a fan, if we aren't a NCAA team at the end of this year, I have no faith that Fran can get it done in years 6 and beyond.
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I'm glad you're talking about it because it makes for good discussion. I get the "you are what your record says" mentality, and it's a good one for a team to have. But the truth is there is a lot more to it than that.

The thing is, it's going to be hard for anyone to stand out in this conference the way it is right now. It seems like there are going to be about 10 teams that are about the exact same and it will be an extremely fine line on who makes the tournament.

If we get a new coach, the best we are going to do is be in that same group but maybe sneak in and maybe not (which is exactly where we are now). Maybe the new coach gets us in a little more often. Maybe the new coach burys us. To me right now the possible small impovement (and that's all that can possibly happen right now baring a miracle hire) isn't worth the possibility of a disasterous hire.
 
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