If we miss the dance this year.....

Fran built a team capable of a 4-6 seed (possibly even higher if we improve at the end of the year like his previous teams did). You would seriously want to throw that away on the assumption that the collapse was on the coach?

Also as I've said before, we are in no position as a program to withstand 2 top 150 recruits under performing so badly.

Worst case scenario, last year's collapse and Gesell and Ogelsby struggling so bad are both on Fran. If that's the case, Fran has some coaching issues and we're destined to always be a bubble team because of those issues.

Best case scenario, neither of those issues are on Fran and he did his part in making us a 4ish seed last year and a tourney team this year, and he just got extremely unlucky a couple times.


If the second one is the case, we would have ran off an incredible coach because of a couple unfortunate things in hopes that we can somehow, on our 4th try, find a coach that can bring us to the top of the best conference in the country.
 
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I forgot to mention in my previous post. If the worst case scenario is what it actually is, how many coaches out there are really going to be better than that? Most coaches at best are only going to keep us where we are now. Switching spots back and forth with the Minnesota's, Illinois, and Maryland's of the conference.
 
Another thing is the risk he took on Jok. In my opinion it was the right move but it hasn't worked out great. I wouldn't say it backfired, but it could have been better. Imagine if Jok turned into anywhere near the player he was projected to be before the injuries. Then imagine if Kentucky got the dude who went to SMU. We would have one incredible back court right now to go with our really good front court.

Fran took us from where we were to a consistant middle of the pack big 10 team, all while having quite a few things go against him. Imagine where he will take us if everything comes together.
 
PCHawk said:
Another thing is the risk he took on Jok. In my opinion it was the right move but it hasn't worked out great. I wouldn't say it backfired, but it could have been better. Imagine if Jok turned into anywhere near the player he was projected to be before the injuries. Then imagine if Kentucky got the dude who went to SMU. We would have one incredible back court right now to go with our really good front court.

Fran took us from where we were to a consistant middle of the pack big 10 team, all while having quite a few things go against him. Imagine where he will take us if everything comes together.
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I just don't understand why you give Fran an excuse/free pass on every mistake/miss Fran has ever made.

For the record I think Jok will be starting very soon and I still think he has a shot at the NBA so I think it will work out in this case but my point still stands that you give him a free pass on any move that hasn't worked out.
 
PCHawk said:
Fran built a team capable of a 4-6 seed (possibly even higher if we improve at the end of the year like his previous teams did). You would seriously want to throw that away on the assumption that the collapse was on the coach?

Also as I've said before, we are in no position as a program to withstand 2 top 150 recruits under performing so badly.

Worst case scenario, last year's collapse and Gesell and Ogelsby struggling so bad are both on Fran. If that's the case, Fran has some coaching issues and we're destined to always be a bubble team because of those issues.

Best case scenario, neither of those issues are on Fran and he did his part in making us a 4ish seed last year and a tourney team this year, and he just got extremely unlucky a couple times.


If the second one is the case, we would have ran off an incredible coach because of a couple unfortunate things in hopes that we can somehow, on our 4th try, find a coach that can bring us to the top of the best conference in the country.
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I'm very confused by all of this.
 
ibahawkeye said:
I just don't understand why you give Fran an excuse/free pass on every mistake/miss Fran has ever made.

For the record I think Jok will be starting very soon and I still think he has a shot at the NBA so I think it will work out in this case but my point still stands that you give him a free pass on any move that hasn't worked out.
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I'm not giving him a free pass as far as saying he is definitely not responsible for any of it. I'm saying even if he is responsible for all of it, it will still be hard to find a coach that does better. If he's reaponsible for some of it, it will be extremely hard to find someone better. If he's not responsible for any of it, it will be almost impossible to find someone better.

All the things are so unrelated that it's not like they show a sign of a pattern. I would say he's definitely not responsible for Ulis. It's 50/50 if he's responsible for Gesell and Oglesby. It's 50/50 that he's reaponsible for the late season collapse. He more than likely isn't reaponsible for Jok. He is who he is. I think he will be really good too but the possibility was there for him to be really good quicker.

Again I'm not assuming none of it is on Fran. I just doubt it all is (and there is a possibility that none of it is). When an AD is evaluating a coach, he has to take all of that into consideration. Not just the wins and loses.
 
PCHawk said:
I'm not giving him a free pass as far as saying he is definitely not responsible for any of it. I'm saying even if he is responsible for all of it, it will still be hard to find a coach that does better. If he's reaponsible for some of it, it will be extremely hard to find someone better. If he's not responsible for any of it, it will be almost impossible to find someone better.

All the things are so unrelated that it's not like they show a sign of a pattern. I would say he's definitely not responsible for Ulis. It's 50/50 if he's responsible for Gesell and Oglesby. It's 50/50 that he's reaponsible for the late season collapse. He more than likely isn't reaponsible for Jok. He is who he is. I think he will be really good too but the possibility was there for him to be really good quicker.

Again I'm not assuming none of it is on Fran. I just doubt it all is (and there is a possibility that none of it is). When an AD is evaluating a coach, he has to take all of that into consideration. Not just the wins and loses.
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1) We push a guy out who makes the NCAA every year, because he doesn't get deep enough in the tournament
2) We push a guy out who just had a 3 seed in the NCAA tourney a year before
3) We fire a guy who buried the program
4) We are supposed to be happy about a guy who makes 1 NCAA tourney in 5 years.

It has come full circle in a bad way. We went from a program 15 years ago that wasn't happy with making the NCAA tourney every year.......to a fan base that now says we shouldn't aspire to do better than the NCAA tourney 1 time out of 5 years.
 
Does anyone remember the Wisconsin game a few years ago where we won because Wisconsin shot something like 3-25 from 3? We didn't play good defense or anything. They just clanged wide open shot after wide open shot. Imagine if we got incredibly lucky and every team on our schedule shot that bad and we ended up winning the conference because of it.

In that situation every fan would be screaming for a contract extension. As an AD though (as in a good AD) he should look at how we won the conference and base his decision on if that kind of winning is sustainable. Obviously not in my extreme example. I'm just pointing this out to explain my feelings on it not being all about wins and loses for an AD.
 
deanvogs said:
1) We push a guy out who makes the NCAA every year, because he doesn't get deep enough in the tournament
2) We push a guy out who just had a 3 seed in the NCAA tourney a year before
3) We fire a guy who buried the program
4) We are supposed to be happy about a guy who makes 1 NCAA tourney in 5 years.

It has come full circle in a bad way. We went from a program 15 years ago that wasn't happy with making the NCAA tourney every year.......to a fan base that now says we shouldn't aspire to do better than the NCAA tourney 1 time out of 5 years.
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We pushed a coach out after getting a 3 seed for the same reason Nebraska forced a guy out for winning 9 games. It had nothing to do with sucess.

As fans we have the right to accept whatever we want. I'm saying an AD would be dumb to want Fran out. I'm also trying to help fans see the big picture to help them understand that there is a very good possibility that it's not near as bad as it seems.
 
deanvogs said:
1) We push a guy out who makes the NCAA every year, because he doesn't get deep enough in the tournament
2) We push a guy out who just had a 3 seed in the NCAA tourney a year before
3) We fire a guy who buried the program
4) We are supposed to be happy about a guy who makes 1 NCAA tourney in 5 years.

It has come full circle in a bad way. We went from a program 15 years ago that wasn't happy with making the NCAA tourney every year.......to a fan base that now says we shouldn't aspire to do better than the NCAA tourney 1 time out of 5 years.
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Also Davis' s teams were getting worse and worse talent wise and it was pretty obvious that he was going to end up going down the same road as Fry did.
 
Kirk will be gone before Fran will be gone.

KF has to win a big ten title (ie make final four in next three years to save his job).

Fran just needs to make final 64 in 2 of next 3.
 
Fran has built up A LOT of good will with the rebuilding job, establishing an identity, and making it fun for the fans. He did all of this in the midst of a GREAT run for the B1G. Hell, last year’s team is probably 12-6 in the 2005-2009 era. It’s been really gradual improvement, but Fran has had some break-throughs with being ranked, ncaa tourney bid, recruiting Chicago, etc. Personally, I don’t think he deserves hot seat talk unless we miss the tourney and next year’s class is a flop, which would shock me.
 
trj said:
So you want to start over AGAIN? You do realize Iowa isn't a top 30 job and hasn't
been so in 15 years? I believe all of Coach K pups have jobs.

Normally, I would agree 3 years is all it should take, but given where the program is at the best play is that FM gets it going by year 6 or 7. You could hire Phil Jackson and it would take at least a couple of years to get going.
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Don't think Phil Jackson would be one to build a program. He never has. He's always taken a good team and made them better. Never once did the teams he had start at the bottom, which is where Iowa was when Fran came on board.
 
Knight78 said:
Don't think Phil Jackson would be one to build a program. He never has. He's always taken a good team and made them better. Never once did the teams he had start at the bottom, which is where Iowa was when Fran came on board.
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But just look at what he's doing with the Knicks this year!
 
Benddontbreak said:
Fran has built up A LOT of good will with the rebuilding job, establishing an identity, and making it fun for the fans. He did all of this in the midst of a GREAT run for the B1G. Hell, last year’s team is probably 12-6 in the 2005-2009 era. It’s been really gradual improvement, but Fran has had some break-throughs with being ranked, ncaa tourney bid, recruiting Chicago, etc. Personally, I don’t think he deserves hot seat talk unless we miss the tourney and next year’s class is a flop, which would shock me.
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Good point on where the team would have finished back then. It's been a gradual improvement record wise but when you factor in the improvement of the conference it's more than gradual.

I'm on board with his seat heating up a little if we miss the tournament and the next class flops though. We would be in pretty bad shape if both of those things happen. I'm really hoping 2 of those guys can make a pretty big impact next year.
 
My thinking is that he needs a win in the 2017 NCAA tourney round of 64 to keep his job. Play in or so called first round wins do not count.

This is plenty of time for him to do what he must do to keep coaching at Iowa.
 
Benddontbreak said:
Fran has built up A LOT of good will with the rebuilding job, establishing an identity, and making it fun for the fans. He did all of this in the midst of a GREAT run for the B1G. Hell, last year’s team is probably 12-6 in the 2005-2009 era. It’s been really gradual improvement, but Fran has had some break-throughs with being ranked, ncaa tourney bid, recruiting Chicago, etc. Personally, I don’t think he deserves hot seat talk unless we miss the tourney and next year’s class is a flop, which would shock me.
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Not sure if choking down the stretch is a great identity to have established.
 
Better recruiting is needed. The 2015 class is 10th or 11th in the league and yet some fans are very excited for that class....probably because it does bring needed diversity to the roster...but still need better.
 
Just to dream of Greg Brunner and Jeff Horner and Erek Hansen and Doug Thomas as a coaching staff , I gotta pop that bhubble of dream now!;)
 
When I first read this.... I thought you said he needs to win the 2017 NCAA tourney. I thought wow...that's a lofty goal!!!

rivercityhawk said:
My thinking is that he needs a win in the 2017 NCAA tourney round of 64 to keep his job. Play in or so called first round wins do not count.

This is plenty of time for him to do what he must do to keep coaching at Iowa.
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