Huge game at Purdue

NikeHawk21 said:
Purdue whacked Virginia, Michigan State, and Wisconsin in Mackey. If they play like they did in those games Iowa has very little chance. They won those three games by a combined 77 points.
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Two of those 3 teams are offensively challenged. And this MSU team hasn’t impressed me.
 
I will add my usual carefully thought out analysis to this thread. I have no idea who will win.
 
My analysis: If the Hawks can dominate the post and drive the lanes, I believe we can win this game. On defense we will have to close out on their 3-pt. shooters and keep them from getting hot on the perimeter. Feeding Garza inside and driving the lanes could put the Boilers in foul trouble and we can put this game away on the FT line. Prediction: Iowa 72 Purdue 66
 
ModebaSan said:
My analysis: If the Hawks can dominate the post and drive the lanes, I believe we can win this game. On defense we will have to close out on their 3-pt. shooters and keep them from getting hot on the perimeter. Feeding Garza inside and driving the lanes could put the Boilers in foul trouble and we can put this game away on the FT line. Prediction: Iowa 72 Purdue 66
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I've watched enough Purdue games and it is a team that gets itself in foul trouble, Haarms especially is foul prone. I have a gut feeling that if Garza is down low he will be double teamed, which he will need to find the open man. Iowa really needs to drive to the basket when Garza gets doubled. It should add up to a lot of fouls.
 
After much careful analysis of current stats and trends, my painstaking research has brought me to the conclusion that if Iowa can score more points than Purdue... we just might win.
 
I don't expect Iowa to win, but out of Iowa's remaining road games left, this one based on the team Purdue has is one of our more probable chances.
 
revkev73 said:
Let's all start to "expect Iowa to win" on the road, the players expect to! :)

A Paradigm Shift!
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meh, that's just not how I look at it. The players and coaches, yes. I am glad they have that mentality. I've just watched this game for 30 straight years. I know how gold each and every Iowa road win has been. We've had some teams that play very well on the road over the years, even in those years, I didn't really have a lot of faith that they would win. I do change my expectations sometimes, but for the most part I keep it pretty even keel.There's a lot of variables to over come on the road and while I would love for this team to skyrocket down the stretch, I imagine it will be a much more subtle kind of flat line. Win at home, lose on the road - get to the NCAA and make some noise. If they win on the road that's even more icing on the cake, I just don't expect it.
 
InGoodCo said:
meh, that's just not how I look at it. The players and coaches, yes. I am glad they have that mentality. I've just watched this game for 30 straight years. I know how gold each and every Iowa road win has been. We've had some teams that play very well on the road over the years, even in those years, I didn't really have a lot of faith that they would win. I do change my expectations sometimes, but for the most part I keep it pretty even keel.There's a lot of variables to over come on the road and while I would love for this team to skyrocket down the stretch, I imagine it will be a much more subtle kind of flat line. Win at home, lose on the road - get to the NCAA and make some noise. If they win on the road that's even more icing on the cake, I just don't expect it.
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A copacetic fan is a healthy fan.
 
dirtwrap said:
If we can steal this one on the road and then take care of business at home against Nebraska, we may find ourselves in first place in the B1G before the tricky slate of road games at Indiana and Minnesota. It also allows us to even out our loss to Nebraska.

Purdue is always tough at home, however this year, they have some interesting stats in B1G play:

They are the best team in the conference in offensive rebounds. Iowa is #2.
However, they are the worst team in the conference in defensive rebounds.

Kind of tells you that Purdue struggles to shoot and that their opponents dont have trouble shooting. So:

They are the worst shooting team in the B1G with regards to shooting percentage.
They are 9th best in defensive shooting percentage.

As far as other stats that stick out:

They are the worst team in the B1G in FTM's, and 2nd worst in FTA's.
They are the worst team in the conference in FT %.
3rd worst in made 3's.
3rd worst in assists.
And, Iowa and Purdue are polar opposites as far as scoring offense and defense. Iowa is the best offense and 12th on defense, and Purdue is 13th in offense and 3rd in defense.

The only other stat that sticks out as they are pretty much in the middle to bottom of the conference in the remaining noteworthy categories, is that the are the 3rd best team in the conference in turnover margin.

So, saying that, I dont think we need to do anything unique here. Garza has to stay out of foul trouble, we have to take care of the ball and shoot at an Iowa average type of game and we should win this one, barring an out-of-character offensive performance by Purdue.
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Hawks Win!
 
This game feels like it could be won or lost in the first 4-8 mins. If Iowa can get up early and keep crowd out of it I like our chances. That place is tough to play at and I'm not as confident we can come from behind by much if it came down to that late.
 
Remaining road games from best chance to win to least likely IMO.

Indiana
Purdue
Minnesota
Michigan State
Illinois
 
@ Purdue - 28 KenPom
@ Minnesota - 38 KenPom
@ Indiana - 41 KenPom

We have to win 1 of those three games in my opinion. Then if we win out at home we’d be 12-8, one loss at home 11-9.

If we win 2 of those above 3 we’d be in very good shape.
 
dirtwrap said:
If we can steal this one on the road and then take care of business at home against Nebraska, we may find ourselves in first place in the B1G before the tricky slate of road games at Indiana and Minnesota. It also allows us to even out our loss to Nebraska.

Purdue is always tough at home, however this year, they have some interesting stats in B1G play:

They are the best team in the conference in offensive rebounds. Iowa is #2.
However, they are the worst team in the conference in defensive rebounds.

Kind of tells you that Purdue struggles to shoot and that their opponents dont have trouble shooting. So:

They are the worst shooting team in the B1G with regards to shooting percentage.
They are 9th best in defensive shooting percentage.

As far as other stats that stick out:

They are the worst team in the B1G in FTM's, and 2nd worst in FTA's.
They are the worst team in the conference in FT %.
3rd worst in made 3's.
3rd worst in assists.
And, Iowa and Purdue are polar opposites as far as scoring offense and defense. Iowa is the best offense and 12th on defense, and Purdue is 13th in offense and 3rd in defense.

The only other stat that sticks out as they are pretty much in the middle to bottom of the conference in the remaining noteworthy categories, is that the are the 3rd best team in the conference in turnover margin.

So, saying that, I dont think we need to do anything unique here. Garza has to stay out of foul trouble, we have to take care of the ball and shoot at an Iowa average type of game and we should win this one, barring an out-of-character offensive performance by Purdue.
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Don't to forget to mention that we have to hope that they actually make the calls when we're getting mugged and held off of screens. Purdue is the best team IMO at holding off of screens and getting away with it! Jok struggled more @ Purdue than anywhere else IIRC
 
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Ree4 said:
Don't to forget to mention that we have to hope that they actually make the calls when we're getting mugged and held off of screens. Purdue is the best team IMO at holding off of screens and getting away with it! Jok struggled more @ Purdue than anywhere else IIRC
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Unfortunately, you make not just a great point, but the point. The inconsistency with officiating in this league is ridiculous and the reason why the road teams struggle so much. The good thing about Purdue is that their stats show that they dont put a lot of stress on a defense and dont draw a ton of fouls, home or away, unlike a Maryland type team that puts a lot of pressure on you. I think we are a team that can handle our business if refs swallow their whistles on both ends, if not help us because we do so well with faster pace and flow. What we cant have happen is what happened at Maryland, what we feared at Maryland, where Garza got into foul trouble so early. Everything else I think we can take care of.
 
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