Howe: Iowa Football Game-By-Game Predictions

[Hawkfnntn]

If they stick with no divisions, which, who the hell knows, the degree of difficulty in winning a B1G title will be very high. But who the hell knows (i've now used that phrase twice) what the schedules will look like. Maybe the Hawkeyes get a 2015 type slate some year.

That said, programs will be judged by whether or not they get into the CFP moving forward.

Theoretically, Iowa would have made a 12-team playoff in '15, '09, '04, '02 if we go by final AP regular season rankings under KF. Iowa finished the '03 regular season at No. 13 so would have missed based on this measurement.

Exactly. New goal. I thought KF was kinda slow to evolving to the mindset of making the 4 team playoff being a goal. I just never remember hearing him talk about it. It seemed like winning the west was his main goal and anything beyond that was gravy.

Now coaches will be judged upon making into the playoffs and their success while in it. The top 5 or so teams will pretty much always be the usual suspects for getting in all the time. With the rest of the spots up for grabs. Can Iowa get hot for a stretch and make it in a few times in a row and do any damage? It'll be so interesting how that'll all look once it gets going.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

I agree with Rob, playoffs should be the goal. Honestly, it will be quite a bit easier to make the playoffs than win the conference. Presumably, the Big 10 will get 3-4 teams in a year to the playoffs. Besting OSU/Michigan/USC etc. in a conference title game is a bear to say the least.

 

[CP87]

Curious if 9-3 is disappointing, what would be a successful season for you guys?

I'm not calling anyone out. Just wondering what would be an acceptable outcome in '23.

12 - 0 = through the roof excited, IC is on fire
11 - 1 = an historic season, exceeded expectations, IC is abuzz (but people are bitching about how bad BF was in the one loss)
10 - 2 = a really good season, upper-end of expected range
9 - 3 = solid season, lower-end of expected range, I am overall satisfied but feel like the season could have been more
8 - 4 = disappointing season with this schedule
7 - 5 = the wheels really fell off, time to consider massive changes
6 -6 or worse = must make changes

Those expectation might be unreasonably high, but I feel like Iowa has earned those expectations based upon recent performance:

2022: 8 wins (I strongly feel this should have been at least 10, no way they should have lost to all 3 of ISU, Illinois, and Neb)
2021: 10 wins
2020: prorated 9 wins
2019: 9 wins
2018: 8 wins

 

[CP87]

I was torn between the Minnesota and Illinois games. I think Iowa drops one of those two but weird shit could also happen in Ames or Lincoln.

I haven't looked, but I think Iowa would be favored in 10 of 12 games based on preseason outlook. Then again, most books have the O/U number set at 7.5. I'll probably throw a couple bucks at the over.

I posted this in another thread back in the spring:

7.5 wins seems like easy money. Iowa has hit the over in season wins for 6 years in a row. They just barely got there last year, but I think Iowa's season shook out in worst-case-scenario fashion (losses to ISU, Illinois, and Nebraska) and they still beat that number. This year their schedule is more favorable, their offense can't be worse (I keep saying that, and they keep proving me wrong), and their other 2 units should be as stout as usual. 7.5 wins seems like a gift.

 

[trj]

Barring an injury to Mcnamara, less than 10 wins will be disappointing.

 

[Scott Leclair]

Curious if 9-3 is disappointing, what would be a successful season for you guys?

I'm not calling anyone out. Just wondering what would be an acceptable outcome in '23.

11-1 with a strong possibility of 12-0

1-Iowa will have a top 10 D
2-Schedule
3- Special Teams/ Bloke from down under!
4. Positions on offense with the main concern have been filled with quality talent

Barring major injuries, 10-2 should be the lowest record that is acceptable.

 

[Scott Leclair]

Iowa should have:

1. Top 10 national defensive unit
2. Top 15 national special teams unit
3. Improved offense at every position except possibly TE however I believe the unit still has the potential of being just as good if not better than last year.
4. Soft schedule

Provided Iowa can avoid major injuries I will be disappointed if hawks have anything less than than a 10-2 record w/ a trip to the championship game. Yes lofty expectations but hey, I also expect the president to be able to walk up a flight of stairs w/out nearly face planting.

I see what ya did there! Nice, very nice

 

[RobHowe]

These are fun to revisit.

I had Iowa at 9-3, scoring 285 points during the regular season.

Hawks were 10-2, scoring 216.

 

[ChosenChildren]

Yes, these are fascinating.

10-2 is darn good, with Phil winning the Broyles Award (big honor!).

I never thought we had a chance in the Big Ten title game....Michigan and Ohio State are just too good.

I think we have a puncher's chance against Tennessee in the bowl game. They remind me of Maryland a little bit.

 

[kicker22]

These are fun to revisit.

I had Iowa at 9-3, scoring 285 points during the regular season.

Hawks were 10-2, scoring 216.

Definitely fun to revisit. I think had the wins and losses been the same with a better output from the offense there'd be a lot less negativity on the board.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

Definitely fun to revisit. I think had the wins and losses been the same with a better output from the offense there'd be a lot less negativity on the board.

With an O we'd have been 11-2 for sure...possibly an upset of Michigan. But it would have been a much better looking 11-2. We'd certainly have more respect around college football.

 

[kicker22]

With an O we'd have been 11-2 for sure...possibly an upset of Michigan. But it would have been a much better looking 11-2. We'd certainly have more respect around college football.

I think we found the rare situation in which it's not only wins and losses that matter, but how you win. Not necessarily about style points, but have to perform at all levels.