Howe: Game-By-Game Predictions for Hawkeye Football 2018

I realized that the chances were pretty high in any given year, but Iowa is remarkably consistent about it. A big part of that is the ball control game that Kirk plays. It tends to keep Iowa close to superior teams and keeps inferior teams close to Iowa.

Sure, the closer the spreads, the higher the likelihood.
 
10-2. Loss to Wiscy and one other. I don't think we will lose to penn state and I don't think we will lose to purdue, both of whom have been getting a lot of love. Penn state to me is the Ohio State game from last season. I think we will handle them. I think their qb is overrated.
 
Rob has us beating ISU but losing to IU? I think it would be the other way around. I also think we lose again to the Badgers, but I don't think it will be even close.
 
People are saying that we are underestimating the loss of Wadley, but I feel that many are overestimating his loss. While he is my favorite running back (my 7 year old got a high five from him before last year's Kid's Day) since Shonn Greene and he had a lot of big play potential, our ypc numbers were some of the worst I can remember. Only 1 year out of the last 10 was worse (2009, insane defense). We had higher ypc even in 2012 with MW! Wadley just was not a consistent ball carrier. While he was always a threat for a touchdown, we were not able to sustain drives when we were unable to get him the ball in space - due to his size/frame. Wadley was not a good "between the tackles" back. He had more 0-1 yard runs than any Iowa RB that I can remember (cept for maybe Brownlee).

I feel that this year's running back committee will turn runs where Wadley would get 1-2 yards into 3-4 yard gains, making 3rd downs easier to convert and drives easier to sustain. The screen/dump passes is where we'll miss Wadley the most but (think ISU/PSU) but I think IKM will be at least be pretty solid in that area.

Wadley was great at knowing when to put his shoulder down to try to get the extra yard, I just don't think he was very effective at it. I feel that having more compact backs (not thin and lanky like Wadley) this year will put us in more favorable position to sustain drives, allowing us to control the ball more and keep our defense fresh.

I know this is the opposite of what most people believe, I'm just offering a different perspective is all.
 

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