Howe: Game-By-Game Predictions for Hawkeye Football 2018

RobHowe said:
And Austin Carr graduated two years ago.

uihawk82, are you Rip Van Winkle? :D
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Sometimes I feel like good old Rip. Wasnt it Austin Carr who who caught several TDs against Iowa at Kinnick in 2016? And then got hurt last year pre or early season? Maybe I have the wrong name.
 
I wonder how many times I have predicted 8-4 in the last ten years. A bunch. Sometimes moving it up one or down one. Than I'll write something to make it sound like I thought about it a bit.
 
7-5

Losses to NIU and Iowa State with a then unexpected upset of Wisconsin. Toss up games the rest of the way.
 
Hawk90 said:
No doubt, but I thought that I was seeing the National Champion when OSU came to town last year, funny what Kinnick does to some teams.
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Unfortunately in recent years Wisky never seems to completely crap the bed against us though. Always tough game.
 
While the schedule may look easier at first glance, I have serious concerns about it for specifically KF program related reasons. Wisconsin may be a home game, but it’s in September. KF teams always play better in November when the bulk of those historic upsets occurred. And I was in Madison for that game last year. We were smoked. A team that lost Wads, JJ, and all 3 LBs, is not going to beat what is virtually the same Wisco team, especially before it has a chance to develop the talent we have later into the season.

And anyone that sees the first three games and doesn’t think we are just as likely to go 2-1 as 3-0 really hasn’t watched Iowa for that many years. I’m calling 4-2 after first 6. UNI and NIU = (sadly) dangerous September games. Clown game will be a toss up.

Nebraska will be a close game. IU and Purdue will be close games. jNWU is probably a loss. Of those four, It’s a bit optimistic to say 3-1. 3-2 more possible. Maryland will be a win. PSU will be a loss. Wanted to say 8-4 but I’m going with 7-5. Another 8th win in a bowl game. Hope I’m wrong.
 
Should be 10-2 with this schedule but history has beaten me down to 8-4 before. Split the difference.

N.Ill = Win.
No business losing to MAC

ISU = Win.
29 yr old QB is worrisome. Patient and/or athletic QBs can give Iowa fits. Or not. Who knows.

UNI = Win

Wisconsin = Win.
I just figure someday Iowa’s offensive schemers have to figure out the 3-4. Maybe Brian has called the sweatshirt in New England.

This game is the second of several that better be circled on the calendar.

@Minn = Win
I’d be more worried about this game (win or lose vs. Wisconsin) if there wasn’t a bye week.

@Ind = Win
If this was played when the Purdue game was then I’d be worried. If you’re going to encroach in Indiana and take players then you better win when you go there.

Maryland = Win
Homecoming means nothing. But MD has issues.

@Penn State = Loss
It’ll be circled and the team will play tough for Kirk, but no choking back tears in Happy Valley.

@Purdue = Loss
Hangover from Penn State and 4 of 5 weeks on road. This should be a circled game though.

NW = Loss
In my reality, a potentially great season just went in the toilet with the third consecutive loss. Superman has kryptonite. Iowa has NW. Only loss I’ve seen in Kinnick was against NW. Apologies, but the wound is deep.

ILL = Win
It’ll be ugly. But after three straight losses, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. A win is a win.

Nebby = Win
The Frost-Jesus will see with his own eyes that the black jerseys are worn by the right team.

****
In this reality, Iowa does what is needed by beating Wisky, but still manages to lose the division at 6-3

Can a 9-3 record leave a bad taste in your mouth?
 
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For the "should be 10-2 with this schedule" crowd, some things to think about. Many are assuming that Iowa will be favored in 10 contests, which seems likely. Over the last 10 years, Iowa has won about 77.6% of the games in which they have been favored (35th best win% as favorite among P5 schools over that span; they have been favorites 87 times over that span). If we assume they have a 77.6% chance of winning each game, their likelihood of going 10-0 in those games is 8%.

The best P5 program in the nation over that span is Alabama, winning 90.3% of games in which they are favored. Give them a span of 10 games as favorite, and the odds of going 10-0 is only 36%.

Of course, it matters just how big of a favorite you are. A 3pt favorite wins about 60% of the time, a 7pt favorite about 70% of the time, a 10 pt favorite about 75-80% of the time, and a 14pt favorite about 90% of the time (based on historic odds over the last 10 years from team-rankings.com). So even if you assume Hawks are a 2 TD favorite in every game, they would still only have about a 35% chance of running that table.

Now, they would have a chance of pulling an upset. They win 32.6% of the time as an underdog (21st best among P5 schools over the last 10 years; they have had 43 games as an underdog in that span). Using those odds and assuming they are dogs twice, they would have a 45% chance of winning at least one of those games.

So, all of this is to say people have a pretty warped sense of how often the favorite SHOULD win.

My prediction: 9-3 + bowl win
 
Related to the above post, for those that claim Iowa usually both wins and loses one game it shouldn't, the likelihood of that is actually very high. The median win% as a favorite seems to be about 70%. Let's say you have 6 games as the favorite and 6 games as a dog. You have an 89% chance of losing a game as a favorite, and an 89% chance of winning a game as a dog. You hence have about an 80% chance of losing at least one game you shouldn't as well as winning one game you shouldn't.
 
For those interested, Iowa has the 26th most wins as a favorite among P5 schools (the result of both being favored quite a bit and winning as a favorite at a decent clip) over the last 10 years.
 
I think this is a pivotal year for the program. Iowa has recruited well over the last 3 years. If they underwhelm (8-4 or worse), I could see recruiting taking a dip. They should still have a could of good years ahead, but the recruiting dip will lead to an eventual on-the-field dip, and Iowa will be stuck in their same cycle of 7-8 wins with the occasional '15 or '09.

But if they can win at least 9 + a bowl, defeat their biggest recruiting rivals (Wisc, Minn, Neb, ISU, and Purdue; I am including Purdue not as a historical rival, but because of Iowa's recent success in Indiana and as a competitor for David Bell), and become exciting on offense (3000+ yards passing, 30+ passing TDs, creative use of skill position players), I think they would have a chance of flipping the tables on Wisconsin. That is a lot of whatifs, but that is what I think it would take to elevate this program to the next level.
 
CP87 said:
Related to the above post, for those that claim Iowa usually both wins and loses one game it shouldn't, the likelihood of that is actually very high. The median win% as a favorite seems to be about 70%. Let's say you have 6 games as the favorite and 6 games as a dog. You have an 89% chance of losing a game as a favorite, and an 89% chance of winning a game as a dog. You hence have about an 80% chance of losing at least one game you shouldn't as well as winning one game you shouldn't.
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I realized that the chances were pretty high in any given year, but Iowa is remarkably consistent about it. A big part of that is the ball control game that Kirk plays. It tends to keep Iowa close to superior teams and keeps inferior teams close to Iowa.
 
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