How upset will you be when Iowa ends up 9-4 and ranked in the final AP?

[racerhawk]

The reason we want a change more than winning irrelevant games is to give hope to the future of bigger things than 8-4 every year. It's a little short sighted and wanting instant gratification to just want to win now over everything.

Also, I wonder how many of those 25 instances is the family member being paid $900,000 and holding a top position for the team.

Beating our West Division rivals and traditional rivals will always be important. I'm not sure what you consider "irrelevant" wins if you're a program like Iowa, but beating Wisky, Minny, NW, PU, ILL, Nebby, and ISU are incredibly relevant.

Were you aware that Iowa won 10 games last year?

 

[okeefe4prez]

Were you aware that Iowa won 10 games last year?

I had not heard that statistic, but I did hear that our practice tape is amongst the best in the country.

 

[Iceman]

Let me ask this... what is more

I had not heard that statistic, but I did hear that our practice tape is amongst the best in the country.

important/carries more weight to the program.

The heat they've taken on Offense the first 7 weeks of the season for the offense or going 9-4 and being ranked in the final pole

Lmfao

 

[dahlhawk]

I've stayed off the hypothetical topic for a while now because it's stupid and unnecessary. Are people really saying going 9-4 would be a bad thing cuz Brian wouldn't get removed as OC. 9-4 would mean beating Wiskey, Minny, and the bugeaters and then winning a good bowl. If that happens and the offense hasn't flatlined it's comes down to is 9 wins good enough for the fans? My crystal ball just isn't that accurate. I'll let it play out and see if Brian can change my mind in this hypothetical dreamscape. I will be way more upset if Iowa losses any of the next three games but not surprised.

 

[MWS604]

I would be pleased and given the quality of the defenses of the remaining 4 games 9-4 is as likely as 7-6. The Badgers are probably the best defense of the 4 remaining games. If we win this weekend, winning out seems very doable. Bowl game victory will depend on the quality of our opponent's defense. Don't see us beating anyone who has a very good or great defense.

 

[HawkGold]

People are not giving that SDSU win enough credit at all

SDSU is ranked 64th out of 261 schools in Sagarin, and they're the top 1-AA school. They're ranked ahead of Liberty, nebraska, Rutgers, Northwestern, Stanford, and Arizona. Sagarin is a rigorous as hell, non-biased ranking based on stats and math. They are really, really good and would give any B1G team not named Michigan or OSU a run for their money.

They're 9-1 with their only loss being against you know who, and IMO it's a more quality win than Rutgers/NW/Nevada.

No way SDSU maintains a 64 ranking going thru a D1 season given scholarship limitations. So it's a bit fake. Tony Babers was asked about Easter IL how they would compete at the FBS level heading into the NC game with Garopolo as QB. Said he EIU compete very well at the beginning of a season but not later on.

Playing them, UNI, or NDSU is more problematic early than later. Also said the talent quickly dropped off after the starters and would hurt late in games even early.

That said Iowa quickly drops off aa well...a lot due to lack of experience and also seems to have a couple of starters below par every year. The position changes each year. At receiver this year not only is there a depth issue but at least one guy shouldn't be playing Big who would have been starting early one without the injuries

 

[Fryowa]

No way SDSU maintains a 64 ranking going thru a D1 season given scholarship limitations. So it's a bit fake.

It's anything but fake; it's math. All 262 teams are compared with the exact same criteria and the Sagarin rankings have been shown time and again a better predictor of wins/losses than the AP or coaches polls.

And South Dakota State is D1, btw.

 

[Fryowa]

I've stayed off the hypothetical topic for a while now because it's stupid and unnecessary.

Internet sports forums are the definition of stupid and unnecessary.

 

[HawkGold]

It's anything but fake; it's math. All 262 teams are compared with the exact same criteria and the Sagarin rankings have been shown time and again a better predictor of wins/losses than the AP or coaches polls.

And South Dakota State is D1, btw.

Splitting hairs. They have a dash and 2 a's. Also known as FCS. You know what I was referring about btw...

Just saying if they played a FBS schedule they asks wouldn't be 64th. They may be 64th as is playing their schedule....maybe.

 

[Fryowa]

Just saying if they played a FBS schedule they asks wouldn't be 64th. They may be 64th as is playing their schedule....maybe.

The biggest component of Sagarin's rating is SOS. The whole reason it was started in the first place was to compare teams with unequal schedules. The reason you think Sagarin is unreliable is actually wht makes it the most reliable, lol.

I know it's hard to convince yourself that your gut feeling is better than math than statistics; it's human nature. But it's also the reason why 1-800-BETS-OFF exists. Because people think their intuition or eye test is better when in reality it's impossible.

The Sagarin rating is nothing more than a predictor of wins against a team lower in the ranking. Basically it uses math--not gut feeling--to say that a team rated 64 will with high confidence beat a team rated 78 or whatever. And its the best one out there by a mile and a half...it does a scary good job. Look up the studies that have been done on results. It scores orders of magnitude better than any other poll out there over time.

And the SOS (which is also math-based) is fluid each week. Which is to say that Sagarin ratings are new after each set of games and don't let previous rankings influence current results (hint, hint, AP and coaches polls..).

Massey is another solid model that does really well but not as well as Sagarin, and Massey's composite rankings are fun as well although that one includes 2 human polls to appease dumb people. Massey (also formulary with no human bias) ranks SDSU 60 this week.

 

[HawkGold]

The biggest component of Sagarin's rating is SOS. The whole reason it was started in the first place was to compare teams with unequal schedules. The reason you think Sagarin is unreliable is actually wht makes it the most reliable, lol.

I know it's hard to convince yourself that your gut feeling is better than math than statistics; it's human nature. But it's also the reason why 1-800-BETS-OFF exists. Because people think their intuition or eye test is better when in reality it's impossible.

The Sagarin rating is nothing more than a predictor of wins against a team lower in the ranking. Basically it uses math--not gut feeling--to say that a team rated 64 will with high confidence beat a team rated 78 or whatever. And its the best one out there by a mile and a half...it does a scary good job. Look up the studies that have been done on results. It scores orders of magnitude better than any other poll out there over time.

And the SOS (which is also math-based) is fluid each week. Which is to say that Sagarin ratings are new after each set of games and don't let previous rankings influence current results (hint, hint, AP and coaches polls..).

Massey is another solid model that does really well but not as well as Sagarin, and Massey's composite rankings are fun as well although that one includes 2 human polls to appease dumb people. Massey (also formulary with no human bias) ranks SDSU 60 this week.

It's a fun discussion. However Iowa struggling with SDSU the way they did is still an issue.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

I had not heard that statistic, but I did hear that our practice tape is amongst the best in the country.

It amazes me how people cannot draw lessons from history. Remember when Nebraska fired a 10-win coach because he was falling behind Texas? Then they fired a coach for winning only 9 games a year because that was too close to what Iowa does. Now Nebraska, who was once an elite, Top 5 program, is quite literally one of the worse Power 5 teams in all of college football. An absolute laughing stock.

If would tell me now that Iowa would go 10-3 for the next decade, I would take it in a heartbeat. Yes that means no playoffs, or natties or conference titles. But, you know what, I will be fucking happy 10 out of 13 weekends of college football. Hell, I would take that same deal at 9-4.

Iowa is NEVER going to win a Nattie. Sorry. True. But, Iowa absolutely could go through 5 years of below .500 football if it fucks up its coaching situation. Have perspective, boys.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

It amazes me how people cannot draw lessons from history. Remember when Nebraska fired a 10-win coach because he was falling behind Texas? Then they fired a coach for winning only 9 games a year because that was too close to what Iowa does. Now Nebraska, who was once an elite, Top 5 program, is quite literally one of the worse Power 5 teams in all of college football. An absolute laughing stock.

If would tell me now that Iowa would go 10-3 for the next decade, I would take it in a heartbeat. Yes that means no playoffs, or natties or conference titles. But, you know what, I will be fucking happy 10 out of 13 weekends of college football. Hell, I would take that same deal at 9-4.

Iowa is NEVER going to win a Nattie. Sorry. True. But, Iowa absolutely could go through 5 years of below .500 football if it fucks up its coaching situation. Have perspective, boys.

We'd be so damn lucky to see Iowa WIN a Nattie. Yeah I mean we were one play away from getting into playoffs once but nobody thinks Iowa woulda won it all had they done it. It's a bit of a pipe dream hoping to win the powerball. I'd say under the most perfect of perfect scenarios they could have a shot at it. But that's what it'd be just a shot.

However the odds of us becoming the next downtrodden Nebraska is just one bad coaching hire away. Compounded by say another one after that etc etc... I for one don't trust Barta to make that decision. I really hope that whenever KF steps down so does Barta. But we'll see..

 

[thedukeofearl]

If Iowa somehow wins out and finishes 9-4 there is a good chance they are in the final poll of the season. Iowa has only won 9 or more games 16 times in school history. It would historically be one of the top 20 best seasons ever in school history.

There isn't going to be any change if that happens and I know a lot of people are more concerned with that vs what actually happens on the field.

I would be fairly happy if this happens fwiw but still think changes are needed.... I just don't know if they'll be justified in the scenario I lay out.

I would be Livid with Fury

 

[okeefe4prez]

We'd be so damn lucky to see Iowa WIN a Nattie. Yeah I mean we were one play away from getting into playoffs once but nobody thinks Iowa woulda won it all had they done it. It's a bit of a pipe dream hoping to win the powerball. I'd say under the most perfect of perfect scenarios they could have a shot at it. But that's what it'd be just a shot.

However the odds of us becoming the next downtrodden Nebraska is just one bad coaching hire away. Compounded by say another one after that etc etc... I for one don't trust Barta to make that decision. I really hope that whenever KF steps down so does Barta. But we'll see..

I'm pretty sure that the closest Iowa will ever be to a title in our lifetimes was where we were in 2009. Had Greene not gone pro that team would have been as good as Texas and Bama that year, but back in that era only two teams got in so we would have been iced out.