How often does Iowa beat better teams?

[hawkfan340]

2000 - MSU, @PSU, NW (I believe MSU & NW were both ranked when Iowa beat them)
2001 - Nobody really comes to mind
2002 - Iowa had more talented than everyone they played except USC
2003 - Michigan (legit top 5 team that year, lost @Iowa, @Oregon, & against USC in LA), @WIS because SR day
2004 - LSU & Wisconsin
2005 - @Wisconsin
2006 - Nobody
2007 - Pretty much every B10 team except MINN was more talented than Iowa that year, even the Gopher beat writers clowned Iowa's talent level
2008 - PSU
2009 - Iowa had more talent than everyone they played except for OSU
2010 - Mizz probably, hard to judge teams in the B12, no defense

Nice post.

I'm going to throw this out there to see what people think. Purdue in 2002. I know their record wasn't very good but they led the Big Ten in both offense and defense that year (even OSU and Mich. rarely do that). They should have beaten Iowa at Kinnick and OSU at home (OSU was Nat'l champs). Special teams killed them. They were very talented.

 

[FML]

2000 - MSU, @PSU, NW (I believe MSU & NW were both ranked when Iowa beat them)
2001 - Nobody really comes to mind
2002 - Iowa had more talented than everyone they played except USC
2003 - Michigan (legit top 5 team that year, lost @Iowa, @Oregon, & against USC in LA), @WIS because SR day
2004 - LSU & Wisconsin
2005 - @Wisconsin
2006 - Nobody
2007 - Pretty much every B10 team except MINN was more talented than Iowa that year, even the Gopher beat writers clowned Iowa's talent level
2008 - PSU
2009 - Iowa had more talent than everyone they played except for OSU
2010 - Mizz probably, hard to judge teams in the B12, no defense

Thank you, this is what I was looking for in my original post. Way too many Jon Miller types on here that just want to tell me how great we have it without actually answering the question.

 

[83Hawk]

Ferentz is the best coach in Iowa football history. Deal with it.

Kirk is the fourth best coach in Iowa football history, following (in no particular order) Howard Jones, Forest Evashevski and Hayden Fry.

Deal with it.

 

[Section136]

Thank you, this is what I was looking for in my original post. Way too many Jon Miller types on here that just want to tell me how great we have it without actually answering the question.

Way too many ignorant types on here that constantly post the same garbage over and over. How many times do you want these types of questions answered?

 

[Clark]

Kirk is the fourth best coach in Iowa football history, following (in no particular order) Howard Jones, Forest Evashevski and Hayden Fry.

Deal with it.

agreed and that isn't a knock on Kirk. Those are some great coaches.

 

[MikeyJoe]

If you back out the game against each other (ie, a 10-2 Iowa team that beats a 9-3 team are both considered to be 9-2 at year end), this is Ferentz's record at Iowa, comparing Iowa's year end adjusted win total to the opponent (hasn't been finalized for 2011 yet):

Diff W L %
-10 0 1 0.000
-8 0 3 0.000
-7 0 1 0.000
-6 1 3 0.250
-5 0 4 0.000
-4 3 3 0.500
-3 5 2 0.714
-2 1 7 0.125
-1 7 4 0.636
0 6 3 0.667
1 11 12 0.478
2 12 7 0.632
3 4 3 0.571
4 6 2 0.750
5 4 2 0.667
6 5 1 0.833
7 3 0 1.000
8 1 0 1.000

Negative numbers mean Iowa was worse than the opponent, positive numbers mean they were better. If you exclude it to +/- 3 wins, Iowa is 7-17 against "better" teams (.292 WP) and 23-8 against worse teams (.742 wp). In other words, we win 29% of the time against notably better teams and lose 24% of the time against notably worse teams.

 

[hawkfan340]

If you back out the game against each other (ie, a 10-2 Iowa team that beats a 9-3 team are both considered to be 9-2 at year end), this is Ferentz's record at Iowa, comparing Iowa's year end adjusted win total to the opponent (hasn't been finalized for 2011 yet):

Diff W L %
-10 0 1 0.000
-8 0 3 0.000
-7 0 1 0.000
-6 1 3 0.250
-5 0 4 0.000
-4 3 3 0.500
-3 5 2 0.714
-2 1 7 0.125
-1 7 4 0.636
0 6 3 0.667
1 11 12 0.478
2 12 7 0.632
3 4 3 0.571
4 6 2 0.750
5 4 2 0.667
6 5 1 0.833
7 3 0 1.000
8 1 0 1.000

Negative numbers mean Iowa was worse than the opponent, positive numbers mean they were better. If you exclude it to +/- 3 wins, Iowa is 7-17 against "better" teams (.292 WP) and 23-8 against worse teams (.742 wp). In other words, we win 29% of the time against notably better teams and lose 24% of the time against notably worse teams.

Friggen sweet job. A+.

Edit:

1. I actually think we're 9-17 when we're -3 or worse (.321 WP)
2. How do cupcakes skew the data? Like do we beat some lesser teams that finish with better records than us because they play in a different sub-division/conference? Or do those data points not make much difference?
3. I actually think the whole data set is very interesting. Like the fact that if we're -1, we actually have a >.500 WP, but if we're +1, we have a <.500 WP, and there's a fairly high number of games there, so it make not just be flukely small data set stuff there.

 

[Ihawk209]

Kirk is the fourth best coach in Iowa football history, following (in no particular order) Howard Jones, Forest Evashevski and Hayden Fry.

Deal with it.

 

[HomerChampless]

Let me pat myself on the back and then say: As I've said before: So far in the Ferentz era, Iowa wins and loses with its defense. If the defense shuts down the opponent, Iowa wins. If the defense doesn't shut down the opponent, Iowa's offense is not so high-powered and Iowa has a good chance of losing the game.

What I mean by the defense shutting down the opponent is: shutting down the opponent in points and yards. IMO, the bend but don't break defense is not good for Iowa because Iowa's offense is not usually proficient in scoring points - any 'fluke' could lose a close game. In fact, Iowa sometimes uses the offense as a form of defense.

These 2 obvious solutions go hand in hand:
(1) Make the Ferentz-era offense more potent - my hope.
(2) Make the Ferentz-era defense more potent - my hope.

 

[silvanthalas]

Keep in mind 11 of those losses came in the first three years of the program (.660 since then).

Ignoring the first 2 seasons for Ferentz

Ahh, it's always more fun when you get to cherry-pick.

But then, cherry-picking doesn't account for recent losses to those teams, does it? Nor needing to block two field goals against UNI, losing to Western Michigan... need I go on?

Ferentz consistently struggles against, if not outright loses to, bad teams. And yeah, I want Iowa to win every one of these games. Who wouldn't?

Oh, wait, I forgot: many people are quite satisfied with 6-6 and a trip to a Toilet Bowl? Win!

 

[NewMexHawk]

It is difficult, misleading, and deceiving to just look at a record and make a judgement.

For instance of the 60% wins that KF has, how many of those wins were against preseason cupcakes--at least two games per year or 22 wins in 11 years. Drop the 22 wins from his overall record and where does he then stand?

One really has to look at his preseason record, his B1G record, and his bowl record separately to have a realistic look at how KF has done during his tenure. Of the preseason and B1G games, which are more important? Obviously the B1G. A better judge of how good KF really is as a coach is to look at the B1G season and the one or two tough preseason games they play and see what kind of record he has during those games. Would you include ISU as a typically tough preseason game. Many of those seasons ISU was the worst team in the B1G or close to the worst. Yet KF
is no better than .500 against ISU, whereas Hayden beat them like a drum. Then we always play one tough team like Arizona, Arizona St, Pitt, and so on and I suspect if you look at the records, he is probably right around .500 against all those teams...winning at home, losing on the road.

I haven't gone back through the records but I imagine if you took the 22 cupcake games out of his record that KF is no more than a .500 coach at best. For instance, Wisconsin padded their record this year with at least three and maybe even four very easy preseason wins. All teams do this. Yet once league play began, Wisconsin has had its problems. They did however beat the teams they were supposed to beat. KF does not do that. I believe I have seen other posts that indicate that KF barely has .500 winning percentage. In other words, KF loses as many games in the B1G as he wins. ISU he is .500 and some of the games Iowa clearly had the better personnel.

"Kirk is 37-28 vs Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Minnesota and ISU combined."
In many of the years since KF has been here, Indiana, Minnesota, and ISU have been the dregs of their conference. NW has gotten better and have been a true thorn in Iowa's side the past 6 years. Purdue has been down the past 6 or 7 years. Illinois, like Iowa, is a Jekyl and Hide team but Illinois usually has great talent but I would rank Illinois as one of the better teams in the B1G since KF has been here?

So is 37-28, basically a 60% winning percentage over the dregs of a conference a good record. I guess to each his own but I would say no. And about every year Iowa loses to one of the worst teams in the conference. Iowa is losing to teams that are some of the worst teams in the nation and Iowa clearly has/had better talent.

On the other hand Iowa has/had PSU's number. OSU owns Iowa and has the entire history the two teams have played--KF has never beaten OSU, never.

Take a bb coach...in the preseason, if you you have eight or nine cupcakes out of 12 or 13 preseason games, it doesn't take long to build a very nice "winning percentage." Can one look at a record and then say, this coach wins 60% of his games thus he is a very good coach, even though a good third of those games are against cupcakes.

One would have to include conference games and how the coach does during conference play and tournament play. For instance, Fran will have a very nice winning percentage after this preseason.

 

[BackNBlk]

Ahh, it's always more fun when you get to cherry-pick.

But then, cherry-picking doesn't account for recent losses to those teams, does it? Nor needing to block two field goals against UNI, losing to Western Michigan... need I go on?

Ferentz consistently struggles against, if not outright loses to, bad teams. And yeah, I want Iowa to win every one of these games. Who wouldn't?

Oh, wait, I forgot: many people are quite satisfied with 6-6 and a trip to a Toilet Bowl? Win!

That's the best you're coming back with? I didn't cherry pick anything. I put all the numbers out there, but what you're saying is that being left with a bare cupboard is no excuse. Whatever. If you're too ignorant to see that Norm's defenses have traditionally struggled with spread passing teams (and that is what many of our "bad" losses have been to), that is your problem. Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern and WMU come to mind. Since when is UNI a bad team? Granted they are FCS, but they are a well-coached, disciplined team that makes the playoffs every year. WE all want them to win every one of those games, the difference is that we don't all whine about it when they don't. Many people aren't satisfied with 6-6 seasons, but the last one of those was 4 years ago, so get over yourself and quit dwelling on the distant past.

 

[JHHawk]

I believe Iowa had exactly one 6-6 bowl trip in the KF era,right? And that was to play defending national title holder Texas. And Iowa beat them up and down the field that day and had the game won when a bad call took away a td?
If fans can cite ugly wins like vs UNI,then I guess it is ok to talk about the great efforts in a losing game,right?

Drew Tate was finally healthy for the first time all year,which is why Iowa almost upset Texas ,down in Texas. If he is healthy all year,Iowa probably goes 9-3.

 

[FML]

NewMexHawk- Iowa/KF did beat OSU...I think it was '04. Granted, that was the worst OSU team of the decade.

 

[BackNBlk]

For instance of the 60% wins that KF has, how many of those wins were against preseason cupcakes--at least two games per year or 22 wins in 11 years. Drop the 22 wins from his overall record and where does he then stand?

Couldn’t you say that about any coach and the cupcakes on their schedule?

Many of those seasons ISU was the worst team in the B1G or close to the worst. Yet KF is no better than .500 against ISU, whereas Hayden beat them like a drum.

This is such BS. ISU’s records during the years we lost to them (6-4, 3-9, 7-5, 7-7, 7-5, 9-3 and 4-7). Kirk’s first year we only won 1 game and ISU had beat Hayden the year before, so they were probably better than us. Those were some of the best teams ISU has had since 1978, so stop with the “they were some of the worst teams in the Big 12.â€

I haven't gone back through the records but I imagine if you took the 22 cupcake games out of his record that KF is no more than a .500 coach at best. For instance, Wisconsin padded their record this year with at least three and maybe even four very easy preseason wins. All teams do this. Yet once league play began, Wisconsin has had its problems. They did however beat the teams they were supposed to beat. KF does not do that. I believe I have seen other posts that indicate that KF barely has .500 winning percentage. In other words, KF loses as many games in the B1G as he wins. ISU he is .500 and some of the games Iowa clearly had the better personnel.

If you’re too lazy to do the work, don’t come in and say what you suspect. You either know it or you don’t. Kirk’s Big 10 record is 56-46…..that’s more than barely. Going 3-13 his first two seasons when he clearly had some of the worst talent in the Big 10 skews that record some, but apparently you expected him to walk on water from Day 1.

"Kirk is 37-28 vs Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Minnesota and ISU combined."
In many of the years since KF has been here, Indiana, Minnesota, and ISU have been the dregs of their conference. NW has gotten better and have been a true thorn in Iowa's side the past 6 years. Purdue has been down the past 6 or 7 years. Illinois, like Iowa, is a Jekyl and Hide team but Illinois usually has great talent but I would rank Illinois as one of the better teams in the B1G since KF has been here?

It’s obvious you’re not paying attention here. The teams I mentioned above are the teams we’re all expecting Kirk to beat on a regular basis. His 37-28 record doesn’t make him “pretty good at being bad†as the thread starter would like us to believe.

Unless you want to do the work of finding the winning percentages of his peers over that same time period against those same opponents to compare him to, there’s no point in discussing this further. We get it though…..you wish Iowa had a different coach.

 

[BackNBlk]

I believe Iowa had exactly one 6-6 bowl trip in the KF era,right? And that was to play defending national title holder Texas. And Iowa beat them up and down the field that day and had the game won when a bad call took away a td?
If fans can cite ugly wins like vs UNI,then I guess it is ok to talk about the great efforts in a losing game,right?

Drew Tate was finally healthy for the first time all year,which is why Iowa almost upset Texas ,down in Texas. If he is healthy all year,Iowa probably goes 9-3.

Yeah, but you see, these Kirk bashers don't want to hear about great efforts in a loss. To them, Kirk failed to win a game he should have.

 

[ICHawk24]

I believe Iowa had exactly one 6-6 bowl trip in the KF era,right? And that was to play defending national title holder Texas. And Iowa beat them up and down the field that day and had the game won when a bad call took away a td?

That was a 100% correct call.

 

[hawkfan340]

That was a 100% correct call.

DEBATABLE!!!

 

[kuhntz]

Please stop. As was noted above....and I'm sure numerous other times in other threads, that is not true. CP87 made some fine points, and I will add this: Kirk is 37-28 vs Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Minnesota and ISU combined. That is definitely not pretty good at losing to less talented teams.

LOL! 28 losses to those teams is getting pretty damn good at losing. Imagine Iowa's records and KF's overall record if he stopped the trend of dropping games to bad teams.

 

[hawkfan340]

Couldn’t you say that about any coach and the cupcakes on their schedule?

To be fair, he did point out that Wisconsin does this all the time.

This has nothing to do with Ferentz, but I'm going to say it again: I hate that all the BCS teams pad their records with home games against lower tier competition. I really wish everyone just stopped counting anything that wasn't a home-and-home. If they're not good enough to play at their field, then they're not good enough to count in your record.