vonwilhelm
Well-Known Member
Was this thread started because we're getting ready to play Nebraska? If so, I don't see them as a "better" team. They've had lots of lopsided defeats since our last one (3 TD's or more).
How often does Iowa beat better teams?
- Thread starter FML
- Start date
If you want to keep your head in the sand, I guess that is your right, but do the homework. Don't just lump them together by name.
Bad losses:
2011-Minnesota
2010-ISU, Minnesota
2008-Illinois
2007-Indiana, ISU, WMU
2002-ISU
Look at the other years when we lost to Big 10 bottom feeders and see that we lost seven more games to teams that won 8 or more games or the number of times we were mediocre to bad and we lost to teams with the same record.
HawkeyeMHA
Well-Known Member
I think our 02 year about everyone we beat was supposed to be better than us. A lot of the PSU and Michigan wins we've had we were underdogs as well. Probably our Florida bowl win we were not supposed to win, LSU perhaps as well. I think we've had our share of wins over teams we were supposed to lose to
Ahh, it's always more fun when you get to cherry-pick.
But then, cherry-picking doesn't account for recent losses to those teams, does it? Nor needing to block two field goals against UNI, losing to Western Michigan... need I go on?
Ferentz consistently struggles against, if not outright loses to, bad teams. And yeah, I want Iowa to win every one of these games. Who wouldn't?
Oh, wait, I forgot: many people are quite satisfied with 6-6 and a trip to a Toilet Bowl? Win!
Do you think his first two seasons are representative of what Iowa has been under his watch? It is pretty clear they are outliers, and as such it makes sense to exclude them. It's not like I threw out bad years in the middle of the decade. Also, we are talking about a solid decade worth of evidence.
And you keep bringing up single incidents of bad Hawk games. You could do this for any team. As discussed in another thread, Hayden Fry occasionally lost games he should have won. Each week in college FB there are upsets galore.
I have yet to see one person produce any sort of evidence, aside from anecdotally citing a handful of games, that Ferentz is any worse in games that he is favored to win than any of his Big Ten contemporaries or than his Iowa predecessor.
HawkeyeMHA
Well-Known Member
Kirk is terrible no matter what, everything is his fault
silvanthalas
Well-Known Member
Fine, you get to remove his first three years, then we also get to remove the 3 after that - '02 to '04 - because those are looking like outliers as well.
Except, they're not 'single incidents'. They happen every year, sometimes multiple times a year. Going 6-7 against ISU isn't a 'single incident'. Losing several years in a row to Northwestern isn't a 'single incident'. Losing to Minnesota two years in a row when they're just plain ******* awful isn't a 'single incident'.
When compiling the records I removed the first 2 years, not the first 3. The performance of the program was certainly different during those two years than during the remainder of his tenure for reasons outside of his control.
He are the seasonal win totals during Ferentz's tenure:
'99 - 1
'00 - 3
'01 - 7
'02 - 11
'03 - 10
'04 - 10
'05 - 7
'06 - 6
'07 - 6
'08 - 9
'09 - 11
'10 - 8
Making the argument that 02-04 are as anomalous as 99-00 is pretty silly. However, if you want to play it that way, excluding Ferentz's worst two seasons, and then excluding 02 and 03 (two of his best seasons), his record against the bottom 5 teams in the Big Ten is 24-13 (win % = 65%).
During the same span, our closest conference comparables, Michigan State and Wisconsin, won 62% and 74% of their games against these opponents, respectively.
So if you consider the last decade of Big Ten football, even if you inexplicably exclude two of Iowa's best seasons, they have beaten the worst 5 teams in the league more frequently than MSU, but not as frequently as Wisconsin. MSU has a losing record to Minnesota and a 0.500 record vs. Purdue during this time span. Wisconsin has a 0.500 record vs. Northwestern during this time span. Iowa has a losing record vs. Northwestern.
If you include all of the seasons from the last decade, Iowa beats the lesser opponents to the tune of 68.2%. Still not as good as Wisconsin, so I will give you that.
I think Ferentz is a great coach and has done very well at Iowa. If you want to make the argument that he has peaked and may never reach the same level of success (much like Fry after his first outstanding decade), I would be willing to listen. If you want to criticize certain coaching decisions, he has some of that coming, and we all know it is easier to criticize than it is to be out there doing it. But to keep trumpeting Ferentz's ineptitude against bad teams without anything more than your memory of a few bad games is ignorant.
Bigtenchamp
Well-Known Member
Ferentz is good - but Above Hayden? not yet
Hayden is the reason Iowa football is where it is today. He made us into a relevent program
I want to see a few more years until I can make such a blanket statement.
That was a really long post to be factually incorrect.
Excluding the 20-2 record against non-BCS conference teams (damn you Western Michigan!) Kirk is 74-64.
To those asking about excluding the first two years, he would be 71-46 against BCS conference teams. If you similarly excluded the "best" two years of 02 and 09, he's 54-42 against BCS conference teams.
hawkfan340
Well-Known Member
Over the long haul, that's pretty good against even competition.
It's fine. It just depends what you expect out of Iowa. I know a lot of fans want Iowa to perennially be a top-tier Big Ten team. If that's what you expect, you won't be happy with .550 conference win percentages. If you just want Iowa to be an overall above-average team in conference (which is honestly more realistic, even if it upsets the meatballs in the fanbase), then it's a fine record.
