How important is a BTT double bye?

[NikeHawk21]

I made a comment in another thread about this but thought it deserved its own thread. How important do people think getting a double bye really is?


Me personally I think it’s completely overblown with the amount of discussion it gets on here. To me being a 3-6 seed isn’t really all that different.

NCAA Seeding:
Outside of total wins, your BTT seed should have no effect on NCAA seeding. I.E the 5 seed in the BTT can easily and often will get a better NCAA seed than the 3 or 4 seed in the BTT. The NCAA committee chooses based on your resume’ not your conference standing (uneven schedules).

Chances of winning the BTT:
So this year with the conference having a ton of parity it’s easy to run this scenario. Let’s assume for argument all games are 50/50 games. (This could hurt or strengthen either side of this debate). So no double bye needs 4 wins as opposed to 3.

No double bye:
50% Gm 1 * 50% Gm 2 * 50% Gm 3 * 50% Gm 4
= 6.25% chance of winning BTT

Double Bye:
50% Gm 1 * 50% Gm 2 * 50% Gm 3
= 12.5% chance of winning BTT

Fatigue could obviously be a factor as well especially this year with a shorter bench, however often teams who played the prior day at these tournaments have an easier time finding their rhythm than teams who haven’t (Neb made a nice run last year).

So again in both simple scenarios the chances of winning the BTT are rather low and the difference isn’t enough to really warrant the discussion it gets in my opinion. Obviously I’d rather be higher seeded than lower and the most important thing is just winning games and boosting our resume’. What say you?

 

[okeefe4prez]

I think Iowa has only won 4 games in the BTT bince Coach Alford (who was at one point the winningest coach in BTT history) headed out west in 2007. I don't see any way Iowa could win the BTT without getting a double bye.

 

[Northside Hawk]

I made a comment in another thread about this but thought it deserved its own thread. How important do people think getting a double bye really is?


Me personally I think it’s completely overblown with the amount of discussion it gets on here. To me being a 3-6 seed isn’t really all that different.

NCAA Seeding:
Outside of total wins, your BTT seed should have no effect on NCAA seeding. I.E the 5 seed in the BTT can easily and often will get a better NCAA seed than the 3 or 4 seed in the BTT. The NCAA committee chooses based on your resume’ not your conference standing (uneven schedules).

Chances of winning the BTT:
So this year with the conference having a ton of parity it’s easy to run this scenario. Let’s assume for argument all games are 50/50 games. (This could hurt or strengthen either side of this debate). So no double bye needs 4 wins as opposed to 3.

No double bye:
50% Gm 1 * 50% Gm 2 * 50% Gm 3 * 50% Gm 4
= 6.25% chance of winning BTT

Double Bye:
50% Gm 1 * 50% Gm 2 * 50% Gm 3
= 12.5% chance of winning BTT

Fatigue could obviously be a factor as well especially this year with a shorter bench, however often teams who played the prior day at these tournaments have an easier time finding their rhythm than teams who haven’t (Neb made a nice run last year).

So again in both simple scenarios the chances of winning the BTT are rather low and the difference isn’t enough to really warrant the discussion it gets in my opinion. Obviously I’d rather be higher seeded than lower and the most important thing is just winning games and boosting our resume’. What say you?

Answer. More important than ever.

You think there is chaos in the conference now wait until March. It would behoove any team to want to avoid as much of that chaos as possible, and this get the coveted dohble bye.

Several years ago Michigan rose out of nowhere to go on a near miraculous run, after their plane slid off the runway no less, and win the tournament. Two years ago Rutgers got hot on Wednesday and Thursday, then gave heavily favored Purdue a huge scare on Friday night. Last year it was Nebraska who nearly upset Wisconsin and nearly made it all the way to Saturday-with a six man rotation.

No one needs that kind of randomness on Wednesday and Thursday. Get the double bye if at all possible, and if you can play a tired team better yet.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I think Iowa has only won 4 games in the BTT bince Coach Alford (who was at one point the winningest coach in BTT history) headed out west in 2007. I don't see any way Iowa could win the BTT without getting a double bye.

You could also use that logic to say our chances of winning the BTT are super low either way, making it even much less relevant whether we have the double bye or not.

For instance let’s put 30% win probability in the BTT because thats about what Fran is at.

Single bye = 0.81% chance to win BTT
Double bye = 2.7% chance to win BTT

Is it really worth worrying about less than 2% probability difference to win the BTT in that case?

 

[NikeHawk21]

Answer. More important than ever.

You think there is chaos in the conference now wait until March. It would behoove any team to want to avoid as much of that chaos as possible, and this get the coveted dohble bye.

Several years ago Michigan rose out of nowhere to go on a near miraculous run, after their plane slid off the runway no less, and win the tournament. Two years ago Rutgers got hot on Wednesday and Thursday, then gave heavily favored Purdue a huge scare on Friday night. Last year it was Nebraska who nearly upset Wisconsin and nearly made it all the way to Saturday-with a six man rotation.

No one needs that kind of randomness on Wednesday and Thursday. Get the double bye if at all possible, and if you can play a tired team better yet.

You just used an example of a bunch of teams who played early in the week and got really hot. Couldn’t that team that gets hot in fact be an Iowa team that doesn’t get a double bye?

 

[okeefe4prez]

You could also use that logic to say our chances of winning the BTT are super low either way, making it even much less relevant whether we have the double bye or not.

Yes, but if you have a double bye the odds of losing to a team that will help RPI or whatever stat model they use is better. You have a much lower risk of losing by 13 to Northwestern or someone awful if you have a double bye.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Yes, but if you have a double bye the odds of losing to a team that will help RPI or whatever stat model they use is better. You have a much lower risk of losing by 13 to Northwestern or someone awful if you have a double bye.

I think that’s a fair point to be made, however this year there looks to be 12 teams that are pretty formidable so chances are pretty high you’ll have a decent matchup the first game. Also it’s still possible to play a bad team with a double bye if someone gets hot, which has happened before. Overall good counterpoint though.

 

[PCHawk]

I mostly just want the double bye because Fran hasn't gotten one yet. We had the 5 seed twice while finishing in a tie for 3rd. Honestly I'm fine if we get a 5 seed because of tie breakers. I just don't want to finish sole 5th because that more than likely means at least 1 more loss to get there. I guess to sum it up, I'm more concerned with getting a record that deserves a double bye than actually getting one.

 

[ssckelley]

I think for an uptempo team that only plays 8 the double bye would be HUGE!

 

[Hawkfnntn]

It's our (and any schools) best chance. This year of all years will be an absolute brutal blood bath. Illinois just took a hit losing their guard that looked really bad. It almost doesn't matter who you're lining up against anyone can give anyone a run for their $ on a neutral court in this league. NE almost beat MD at their place last night. Northwestern blew an 18 pt lead against Rutgers at their place and should have won. So playing one less game no matter how you cut it is paramount. Then again all that being said it may not mean jack squat and maybe one of the bottom teams gets hot and wins it all who knows.. I'm not betting on it that's for sure

 

[NikeHawk21]

I mostly just want the double bye because Fran hasn't gotten one yet. We had the 5 seed twice while finishing in a tie for 3rd. Honestly I'm fine if we get a 5 seed because of tie breakers. I just don't want to finish sole 5th because that more than likely means at least 1 more loss to get there. I guess to sum it up, I'm more concerned with getting a record that deserves a double bye than actually getting one.

Agreed. I want Iowa to win as many games as we can, and of course that will help our seeding. This whole thing about worrying about who wins or loses around the league at this point just seems kind of odd. I guess it makes watching the other games more interesting if you feel like you have a horse in the race.

 

[okeefe4prez]

I think that’s a fair point to be made, however this year there looks to be 12 teams that are pretty formidable so chances are pretty high you’ll have a decent matchup the first game. Also it’s still possible to play a bad team with a double bye if someone gets hot, which has happened before. Overall good counterpoint though.

Best case is Fran wins the first, loses the second. That's the high water mark in the BTT. Say we get in as the 4, beat 5 Friday and then lose to 1 on Saturday, if we're being honest that's about the best we can hope for. I mean, yeah, it'd be great to win it, but I typically don't start paying too much attention until the conference tournaments and I have zero confidence in Fran winning it all. We'll have a bad shooting game or the refs will give Garza two ticky tack fouls before the first TV timeout or something and we'll lose.

 

[Northside Hawk]

You just used an example of a bunch of teams who played early in the week and got really hot. Couldn’t that team that gets hot in fact be an Iowa team that doesn’t get a double bye?

It could very well be and wouldn't that be a refreshing change?

But that's not the history of this team post Alford and to go on a run like that would buck a long unfavorable trend.

Check back in a week. If we can somehow get Indiana and Minnesota, you know like the type of thing double bye teams do, our chances of getting a double bye will increase tremendously.

 

[Northside Hawk]

Agr

It's our (and any schools) best chance. This year of all years will be an absolute brutal blood bath. Illinois just took a hit losing their guard that looked really bad. It almost doesn't matter who you're lining up against anyone can give anyone a run for their $ on a neutral court in this league. NE almost beat MD at their place last night. Northwestern blew an 18 pt lead against Rutgers at their place and should have won. So playing one less game no matter how you cut it is paramount. Then again all that being said it may not mean jack squat and maybe one of the bottom teams gets hot and wins it all who knows.. I'm not betting on it that's for sure

Agree. Same thing I said last year. How cool would it be to have
between six and nine of the fourteen teams knocked out before you even lace up the sneakers!

 

[PCHawk]

Agreed. I want Iowa to win as many games as we can, and of course that will help our seeding. This whole thing about worrying about who wins or loses around the league at this point just seems kind of odd. I guess it makes watching the other games more interesting if you feel like you have a horse in the race.

I'm so much into rooting for teams ahead of Iowa to lose that it seems like a foreign concept to me that someone wouldn't care about it.

 

[Xerxes]

Double bye teams are 14-6 in the quarterfinals since the B1G went to the double bye format in 2015.

 

[eveningnewsteam]

Idk. Without a bid on the line, I’m good with Iowa being out by Friday

 

[Northside Hawk]

Idk. Without a bid on the line, I’m good with Iowa being out by Friday

Disagree. Any win we can get on Friday or beyond would increase NCAA seeding tremendously.

 

[Xerxes]

Disagree. Any win we can get on Friday or beyond would increase NCAA seeding tremendously.

Wouldn't most wins on Thursday qualify as a Quad 1 win too? Basically anyone but NW or Nebraska

 

[DDThompson]

I think Iowa has only won 4 games in the BTT bince Coach Alford (who was at one point the winningest coach in BTT history) headed out west in 2007. I don't see any way Iowa could win the BTT without getting a double bye.

In thought you were leading up to ...

I don’t see any way Iowa could win the BTT without Steve Alford...