JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Next in our series of 2012-2013 Iowa basketball player projections is a look at Melsahn Basabe & Zach McCabe. Read our thoughts on Devyn Marble & Aaron White at this link.
Melsahn Basabe's 2011-2012 stats: 8.2/ppg, 4.8/rpg, 1.0/blocks: We all know that this past season was not what anyone expected out of Melsahn Basabe. That goes for Mel, Fran McCaffery and the fans. As a true freshman, he averaged 11/ppg, 6.8/rpg and 1.3 blocks per game. That was one of the best seasons by an Iowa freshman big man since Jess Settles. Basabe added over 20 pounds of muscle in the off season which seemed to slow him down. While lithe and springy as a freshman, he was lumbering and at times unmotivated as a sophomore. Basabe shot 65.7% from the free throw line in 2011-2012 compared to over 71% as a freshman. He shot over 57% from the floor as a frsehman and saw that mark drop to below 50% as a sophomore.
Basabe showed signs of his old self in Iowa's two-game NIT stretch. He averaged 16 points & 6.5 rebounds per game during that stretch in just 16 minutes per game. He was running and active in the lane on both ends of the floor. His 13 point, 7 rebound and five block performance against Indiana at home late in the year was also very encouraging.
AREAS TO IMPROVE: We won't see Basabe carrying that extra weight heading into next season. It just didn't work for him, something that was evident the first month of the year. Iowa will also have some help in the pivot next year with Adam Woodbury, Kyle Meyer and Gabe Olaseni. Can those three provide 12 points, 8 boards and 2 blocks per game from the 'five' hole? If so, that helps keep Basabe in the four. A more agile Basabe playing the four is good news for Iowa. Basabe was also more effective as a freshman in the fast break, something a lighter frame will help.
That said, he needs to develop a 'go to' move in the paint with his back to the basket. He's not really a strong jump shooter and I don't know that he ever will be. He's a jumping jack who can fill the running lanes and score opportunity buckets for you in transition or off misses. In Iowa's offense, he needs to be more like the gazelle than the galoot.
ROUGH PROJECTION: Iowa had fewer forward options when Basabe was a freshman. They had Jarryd Cole in the paint which allowed Basabe to be the four. Next year, Basabe can move back to where he is getting more minutes as a four. He'll likely still see some minutes as a five, but he can use his athleticism in transition to score points. He is obviously capable of putting up the numbers he achieved as a freshman, but that may be too high of an expectation for two reasons. One of those reasons is between Mel's ears; does he have the desire to get back there? Only he can answer that. The next reason is a good problem for the program to have; Iowa has more options in the front court. Aaron White will play some four minutes and perhaps some time at the three. Zach McCabe can play both of those positions for a spell, too. Meyer may be better suited for the four spot than the five. However, Basabe is going to have every chance to play the 25 minutes per game he played as a freshman vs the 19.0 he averaged in Big Ten play this past year. He averaged just 6.5/ppg and 3.5/rpg in Big Ten play. He averaged 13.0/7.3 in Big Ten play as a freshman in over 26 minutes per game. I'll go with 10/ppg and 6.0/rpg along with 1.5 blocks per game, though Basabe could exceed those numbers as has in the past.
Zach McCabe 2011-2012 stats: 7.8/ppg, 4.6/rpg, 1.0/apg: There were times during this past year where Zach McCabe looked like he had turned a major corner and could grow into a formidable foe for Iowa opponents. He scored 20 points in back to back games (at Purdue and home against Nebraska, both losses and both games where Iowa led by double digits in the first half) but it took him another ten games after that to score his next 41 points. In that 10 game stretch, McCabe amassed 34 fouls. Over Iowa's last three games, McCabe averaged 13.6/ppg, 5.3/rpg and 4.0/fouls per game.
McCabe really improved his shooting from his freshman to sophomore season, hitting 44.9% from beyond the arc compared to just 28.6% his freshman year. He made 26 trey's as a freshman on 84 attempts compared to 22 on 49 attempts as a sophomore. He averaged 2.0 more points per game as a sophomore and 1.0 more rebounds. The biggest improvement I saw from McCabe, aside from consistency from beyond the arc, was his ability to take players off the drive and finish around the rim.
AREAS TO IMPROVE: The single biggest area where McCabe needs to improve is simply staying on the floor longer. His 119 fouls far and away led the team, as Aaron White's 73 was second on the team. McCabe averaged .15 fouls per minutes played this season, or 3.4 per game. That was 1.2 more fouls per game as a sophomore compared to his freshman season yet he averaged just 1.9 more minutes per game.
Compare those numbers to one of Iowa's more prolific 'foulers' in recent memory, Glen Worley. Worley was whistled for 116 fouls as a sophomore but his average was one foul for every .16 minutes played. As a junior, Worley committed 119 fouls but averaged 27.7 minutes per game for an average of .138 fouls per minute played. So McCabe's 2011-2012 season was one of the most foul-plagued campaigns by a key Iowa player in perhaps the last quarter century.
At times, it seemed like McCabe's reputation preceded him, as he was the victim of more than a few phantom calls. But McCabe cannot draw a foul 20 feet from the basket and he did that more than a few times. His feet are not quick enough to contain a guard that far away from the hoop when he gets caught in a switch coming off a hedge. Back off and give up the 21 foot jumper, a shot that is going to fall maybe 35% of the time and live to fight in the paint on the other end.
McCabe's ability to take four's off the drive is far too important to this team, especially when he is dialed in from beyond the arc. The opponent has to respect that element of his game which means they have to guard him more tightly on the perimeter. That's a green light to take the slower footed four to the rack and score, draw a foul or both. He has the skill, he has a bit of a mean (not dirty) streak to him and he needs to be on the floor 25 minutes per game.
ROUGH PROJECTION: McCabe made decent statistical improvements this past year without a huge jump in minutes played. If he can cut down on his fouls by one per game, get back to 2.5 or 3.0 fouls per game, his numbers are going to go up even if he plays the same amount of minutes. I believe his skill set is capable of averaging more than 10 points per game and six rebounds per game, but will be play a smarter brand of basketball on the defensive end? Limiting fouls outside the lane will go a long way to curing his ills. I think he can do just that and will look for 10&6 from McCabe in 2012-2013.
FRONT COURT TOTALS: When you combine McCabe, Basabe and White's totals from this exercise, you get 34 points per game and 19 rebounds per game. That's an increase of seven points per game and four rebounds per game. Are those totals unrealistic? The numbers projected for Basabe in both scoring and rebounding are beneath those he put up as a true freshman. If McCabe can stay on the floor for four or five more minutes per game, multiplied by his points per minute performance as a sophomore, you get to 9.2/ppg, just 0.8/ppg less than the 10.0/ppg projection.I believe these numbers are attainable for this talented trio.
Melsahn Basabe's 2011-2012 stats: 8.2/ppg, 4.8/rpg, 1.0/blocks: We all know that this past season was not what anyone expected out of Melsahn Basabe. That goes for Mel, Fran McCaffery and the fans. As a true freshman, he averaged 11/ppg, 6.8/rpg and 1.3 blocks per game. That was one of the best seasons by an Iowa freshman big man since Jess Settles. Basabe added over 20 pounds of muscle in the off season which seemed to slow him down. While lithe and springy as a freshman, he was lumbering and at times unmotivated as a sophomore. Basabe shot 65.7% from the free throw line in 2011-2012 compared to over 71% as a freshman. He shot over 57% from the floor as a frsehman and saw that mark drop to below 50% as a sophomore.
Basabe showed signs of his old self in Iowa's two-game NIT stretch. He averaged 16 points & 6.5 rebounds per game during that stretch in just 16 minutes per game. He was running and active in the lane on both ends of the floor. His 13 point, 7 rebound and five block performance against Indiana at home late in the year was also very encouraging.
AREAS TO IMPROVE: We won't see Basabe carrying that extra weight heading into next season. It just didn't work for him, something that was evident the first month of the year. Iowa will also have some help in the pivot next year with Adam Woodbury, Kyle Meyer and Gabe Olaseni. Can those three provide 12 points, 8 boards and 2 blocks per game from the 'five' hole? If so, that helps keep Basabe in the four. A more agile Basabe playing the four is good news for Iowa. Basabe was also more effective as a freshman in the fast break, something a lighter frame will help.
That said, he needs to develop a 'go to' move in the paint with his back to the basket. He's not really a strong jump shooter and I don't know that he ever will be. He's a jumping jack who can fill the running lanes and score opportunity buckets for you in transition or off misses. In Iowa's offense, he needs to be more like the gazelle than the galoot.
ROUGH PROJECTION: Iowa had fewer forward options when Basabe was a freshman. They had Jarryd Cole in the paint which allowed Basabe to be the four. Next year, Basabe can move back to where he is getting more minutes as a four. He'll likely still see some minutes as a five, but he can use his athleticism in transition to score points. He is obviously capable of putting up the numbers he achieved as a freshman, but that may be too high of an expectation for two reasons. One of those reasons is between Mel's ears; does he have the desire to get back there? Only he can answer that. The next reason is a good problem for the program to have; Iowa has more options in the front court. Aaron White will play some four minutes and perhaps some time at the three. Zach McCabe can play both of those positions for a spell, too. Meyer may be better suited for the four spot than the five. However, Basabe is going to have every chance to play the 25 minutes per game he played as a freshman vs the 19.0 he averaged in Big Ten play this past year. He averaged just 6.5/ppg and 3.5/rpg in Big Ten play. He averaged 13.0/7.3 in Big Ten play as a freshman in over 26 minutes per game. I'll go with 10/ppg and 6.0/rpg along with 1.5 blocks per game, though Basabe could exceed those numbers as has in the past.
Zach McCabe 2011-2012 stats: 7.8/ppg, 4.6/rpg, 1.0/apg: There were times during this past year where Zach McCabe looked like he had turned a major corner and could grow into a formidable foe for Iowa opponents. He scored 20 points in back to back games (at Purdue and home against Nebraska, both losses and both games where Iowa led by double digits in the first half) but it took him another ten games after that to score his next 41 points. In that 10 game stretch, McCabe amassed 34 fouls. Over Iowa's last three games, McCabe averaged 13.6/ppg, 5.3/rpg and 4.0/fouls per game.
McCabe really improved his shooting from his freshman to sophomore season, hitting 44.9% from beyond the arc compared to just 28.6% his freshman year. He made 26 trey's as a freshman on 84 attempts compared to 22 on 49 attempts as a sophomore. He averaged 2.0 more points per game as a sophomore and 1.0 more rebounds. The biggest improvement I saw from McCabe, aside from consistency from beyond the arc, was his ability to take players off the drive and finish around the rim.
AREAS TO IMPROVE: The single biggest area where McCabe needs to improve is simply staying on the floor longer. His 119 fouls far and away led the team, as Aaron White's 73 was second on the team. McCabe averaged .15 fouls per minutes played this season, or 3.4 per game. That was 1.2 more fouls per game as a sophomore compared to his freshman season yet he averaged just 1.9 more minutes per game.
Compare those numbers to one of Iowa's more prolific 'foulers' in recent memory, Glen Worley. Worley was whistled for 116 fouls as a sophomore but his average was one foul for every .16 minutes played. As a junior, Worley committed 119 fouls but averaged 27.7 minutes per game for an average of .138 fouls per minute played. So McCabe's 2011-2012 season was one of the most foul-plagued campaigns by a key Iowa player in perhaps the last quarter century.
At times, it seemed like McCabe's reputation preceded him, as he was the victim of more than a few phantom calls. But McCabe cannot draw a foul 20 feet from the basket and he did that more than a few times. His feet are not quick enough to contain a guard that far away from the hoop when he gets caught in a switch coming off a hedge. Back off and give up the 21 foot jumper, a shot that is going to fall maybe 35% of the time and live to fight in the paint on the other end.
McCabe's ability to take four's off the drive is far too important to this team, especially when he is dialed in from beyond the arc. The opponent has to respect that element of his game which means they have to guard him more tightly on the perimeter. That's a green light to take the slower footed four to the rack and score, draw a foul or both. He has the skill, he has a bit of a mean (not dirty) streak to him and he needs to be on the floor 25 minutes per game.
ROUGH PROJECTION: McCabe made decent statistical improvements this past year without a huge jump in minutes played. If he can cut down on his fouls by one per game, get back to 2.5 or 3.0 fouls per game, his numbers are going to go up even if he plays the same amount of minutes. I believe his skill set is capable of averaging more than 10 points per game and six rebounds per game, but will be play a smarter brand of basketball on the defensive end? Limiting fouls outside the lane will go a long way to curing his ills. I think he can do just that and will look for 10&6 from McCabe in 2012-2013.
FRONT COURT TOTALS: When you combine McCabe, Basabe and White's totals from this exercise, you get 34 points per game and 19 rebounds per game. That's an increase of seven points per game and four rebounds per game. Are those totals unrealistic? The numbers projected for Basabe in both scoring and rebounding are beneath those he put up as a true freshman. If McCabe can stay on the floor for four or five more minutes per game, multiplied by his points per minute performance as a sophomore, you get to 9.2/ppg, just 0.8/ppg less than the 10.0/ppg projection.I believe these numbers are attainable for this talented trio.
